Best Buys - Round 4

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Apr 13, 2016 at 11:12 AM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    So we’ve done our NRL tips for the week (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and figured “why not start up a Best Buys section?” before its time to do our AFL tips.

    Again, like TheTassieHawk, I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer but hopefully this will start a bit of a conversation.

    We missed the boat last week, when there was a lot of good buys and opportunities to fix your team (or completely stuff it up – did anyone trade in Bob Murphy off the back of his two 100s?), but there is still plenty of value out there.
    By position our Best Buys would be Marcus Adams as a defender, Aaron Hall as a forward and Max Gawn as a ruck (let’s hope you already have all 3 of those!).

    Which leaves our "Buy Of The Week" for round 4:
    At the moment he finds himself in the heart of less than 50% of SC teams, which some would say is evidence of the decreasing faith the Australian public has for a player to rise back after injury. I myself was a doubter this year, I too had no place in the heart of my team for this man – but we will be worshipping the son of god on Saturday when he takes on his cross town/state rivals and will smash out a 150+ score. I am of course talking about the great man, the original Perma-Captain, TipBetPro’s number 1 ranked player – Mr Gary Ablett Jnr.

    And now for the rest.
    I’ve chucked in a few comments, but please add more details and information in the comment section.
    Hopefully this format is fairly easy to follow, it goes:

    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE


    DEFENDERS
    DEF Michael Hartley (ESS) - 117k (+46k) - AVG=70 (on the bubble, got another solid 53 last week so not a bad option if you are still stuck with a rookie donut – but does he have job security? (that’s a question, I have no idea…)

    F/D Marcus Adams (WBD) - 226k (+68k) - AVG=105 (If you don’t have him, well there is no helping you – but maybe grab him now)

    DEF Orazio Fantasia (ESS) - 282k (+33k) - AVG=89

    DEF Josh Gibson (HAW) - 524k (+31k) - AVG=122 (his average may look good, but that is mainly off the back a 190 two weeks ago, I’d say buyer beware)

    DEF Bachar Houli (RIC) - 535k (+23k) - AVG=115

    Midfielders
    MID Josh Dunkley (WBD) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=47 (he is also on the bubble, and will remain there until he plays again – will that be soon? I hope so because he is still in our team…)

    MID Jade Gresham (STK) - 144k (+12k) - AVG=41

    MID Brent Macaffer (COL) - 174k (+3k) - AVG=38

    MID Aaron YOUNG (PTA) - 253k (+48k) - AVG=98

    MID Tom LIBERATORE (WBD) - 404k (+22k) - AVG=105 (good value for his price, but will he be a gun/keeper? May not be worth bringing in if you don’t already have him)

    MID James Kelly (ESS) - 451k (+26k) - AVG=111 (Again, good value for his price but not sure if this will last)

    MID David Zaharakis (ESS) - 469k (+26k) - AVG=122 (In the new-look, or is that old-look, Essendon will Zaharakis be a gun midfielder?)

    MID Jack Ziebell (NTH) - 491k (+23k) - AVG=109

    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 578k (+12k) - AVG=135

    MID Robbie Gray (PTA) - 608k (+6k) - AVG=126

    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 636k (+3k) - AVG=131 (BOTW – need I say more…)

    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 658k (-4k) - AVG=135 (Who would not have this man in their team? Well us, which was my fault – I point this out so that maybe you think twice before taking my SC advice!)

    Rucks

    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 563k (+13k) - AVG=117 (for those sad few people out there with Sandi, Gawn would make a great replacement – he didn’t score as much as Goldy, but he definitely had the better of him for much of the game - IMHO)

    R/M Mark Blicavs (GEE) - 574k (+3k) - AVG=118

    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 688k (-4k) - AVG=131

    Forwards
    M/F Jayden Short (RIC) - 117k (+26k) - AVG=49 (on the bubble, but I have no idea about his JS – any Richmond fans out there want to share their thoughts?)

    FWD Nicholas Kommer (ESS) - 124k (+10k) - AVG=35

    FWD Daniel Rioli (RIC) - 158k (+15k) - AVG=47

    FWD Charlie Curnow (CAR) - 171k (+14k) - AVG=48

    FWD Callum Ah Chee (GCS) - 189k (+30k) - AVG=67

    FWD Jed Lamb (CAR) - 190k (0k) - AVG=38

    M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 318k (+42k) - AVG=103 (if he continues this form, then he is still well under valued)

    M/F Aaron Hall (GCS) - 488k (+32k) - AVG=129 (as previously said, Hall was and still is a great pick up)

    FWD Eddie Betts (ADE) - 489k (+22k) - AVG=109

    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 508k (+45k) - AVG=140 (Why is Waite mentioned here? Well he is averaging 140 with all scores above 120 –yes he is Waite, but stats don’t lie – although I myself won’t be touching Waite…)

    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 543k (+22k) - AVG=130

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Also, I had some vague cut-offs for who made the grade:
    • Anyone who was going to go up by +25k (good value)
    • Anyone worth less than 200k and has played 2 games (rookies on the bubble)
    • Anyone averaging more than 125 (guns)
    Does anyone have any thoughts on these? Suggested changes for next week?

    As for what I’ll be doing with our team this week? Well we have plenty of money that I could spend, but I think I’ll refrain from trading this week in the hope that our rookies will go up and Danger will go down.
    And hopefully Dunkley gets a few more games – I believe their maybe a spot opening up on the Doggies team…

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    Kim

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

    1. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Just a passing thought on Ruggles and his good start of 77. Lincoln McCarthy scored 96 last week and was 'omitted' for this round.
      Flick on Gresham, hold on Dunkley.
    2. RPritch
      RPritch
      Pretty good list. I've got Birchall down back and am very comfortable with that pick I made, he should be down there as another 'possible' option to fill D5 or D6 at the end of the year, at least equal to the one or two worse defenders you have mentioned in that section.

      Also, there are lots of options in the mids and fwds that one could be happy with that aren't there, but obviously you weren't going to list all of them eg. Mitch Duncan and Tom Lynch (GCS), I have neither but both would be fine to have as a keeper imo
    3. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Thing is, if you have a defender that scores as the 10th best by end of year but you got him for say, 40th best price - then you'd be very happy with that.
      • Like Like x 3
    4. jp
      jp
      Looks like GAJ got the curse of the best buy! Glad I brought in hall instead :)

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