Best Buys - Round 6

Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, May 3, 2018.

By That KI Guy on May 3, 2018 at 3:01 PM
  1. That KI Guy

    That KI Guy Moderator Staff Member

    Jan 3, 2016
    Likes Received:
    Upgrade season v2.0

    So you doubled down last week?
    Fear not, you didn’t miss out on too much. Plenty more bargains to be had.

    Player of the week

    Zach Merrett Ess Mid $506K BE 61 Avg 83
    Yep he’s back. Three round average of 110. Still available at a sweet price. Done deal.



    Kade Simpson Carl Def $521K BE 83 Avg 109
    Feels like the new Yeo this year. Great ceiling but can’t stay on the ladder.

    Elliot Yeo WC Def $532K BE 93 Avg 100
    With that huge 150 now out of his calcs, Yeo has probably levelled out for now. Who am I kidding. Get on the rollercoaster and scream with 35,000 others.

    Michael Hurley Ess Def $549K BE 84 Avg 105
    Locked top 6 defender. Consistent as.

    Shannon Hurn WC Def $480K BE 84 Avg 102
    Good pick up by tk.
    Shagger is certainly winding back the clock with a respectable 89 last season and backing it up with some nice tons this year. Blip on the radar in round 5 but smashed out a 130 last week to put his hand up. Signs pointing to top 10.

    Alex Witherden Bris Def $500K Be 66 Avg 96
    Not a noted premium but certainly continuing where he left of last season. Only one score under 89 so far. Consistent. Firming as a top 10 defender.

    Jeremy Howe Coll Def $463K BE 33 Avg 95
    Monster career best game last week. Just reinforces his sizable standard deviation this year. Risky.


    Josh Kennedy Syd Mid $441K BE 66 Avg 86
    Maybe think twice before you jump on this week’s hype train. Second ton for the year on the back of two sub 60 scores. I’d be wanting a lot more evidence to suggest he’ll be a worthwhile selection.

    Jackson Macrae WB Mid $596K BE 98 Avg 123
    Picked up where he left off a couple of rounds ago. Ripping it up with Suns and Lions to come. Only in 5% of teams.

    Scott Pendlebury Coll Mid $572 BE 93 Avg 110
    Has flown under the radar a little bit. Not anymore.

    Andrew Gaff WC Mid $552K BE 82 Avg 109
    Similar numbers to Pendles. Definite improvement on last year when he burnt me. Not quite over that. Others might have more compassion.

    Lachie Neale Freo Mid $523K BE 45 Avg 101
    Big game last week but probably warrants another look to confirm he’s turned the corner after back to back tons.

    Adam Treloar Coll Mid $591K BE 59 Avg 116
    Has had a field day of late going at 134 over his last 3 games. Not sure he can maintain that level of scoring. Chase points at your peril.

    Joel Selwood Gee Mid $535K BE 75 Avg 111
    Still getting the job done. Proven premo. Top 15 likely. Will challenge for top 10.

    Patrick Cripps Carl Mid $573K BE 31 Avg 121
    Another 140+ game. Top 8. Yep.


    Max Gawn Melb Ruck $608K BE 25 Avg 131
    Just jumped by $43K off back to back 150+. Locked R1. Daylight R2.


    Justin Westhoff PA Fwd $511K BE 37 Avg 112
    If he didn’t have that pesky round 9 bye then The Hoff would probably be this weeks best buy. Some concern on his scoring being impacted by Ryder’s return soon. On contrary, his two biggest games were in line with minimal amount of ruck work. Strong chance to be top 6 forward from here.

    Mitch Robinson Bris F/M $474K BE 37 Avg 102
    Travelling nicely with last 4 games at 94+. Huge POD with only 2.6% ownership. Whoa!

    Rookies on the bubble

    So, a whole swag of kids popped their bubble on the weekend but wait there’s more!
    A couple of defenders in Cole and Duman this week, both with their pros and cons.

    Thomas Cole WC Def $170K BE – 69 Avg 83

    Cole is one of those guys that we had penciled in as a legitimate starting rookie in the lead up to round 1. Obviously devastating circumstances lead to his delayed bubble but I wouldn’t be jumping out of my skin to get him. Cole has played two different roles in his two games so far:

    Round 5 in defense with 19 touches at 95% DE and 98 SC (77% TOG).
    Round 6 up on a wing with 12 touches at 66% DE, 10 tackles, 5 Frees for and 67 SC (87% TOG).

    Reports seem to suggest that his JS is pretty solid but not sure there is as much certainty around his role. Though the sample size is miniscule, his wing stint looks like kryptonite and even further flattered by 5 frees. If he conservatively went at 70 SC from now then he could make $130K at his bye but probably not much more beyond that. Nail in the coffin is the fact he’s $50K more expense than most rookies. A big chunk of change at this point of the season. At best, a warm body on the bench for the remainder of the season.

    Taylin Duman Freo Def $123K BE -68 Avg 69

    Not sure where the old Ross Lyon is but we’ll keep patting this one gently and hopefully things will pan out alright. Duman has the Lyon seal of approval this week, but still not sure if that’s a vote of confidence or a death sentence. However, there’s an unprecedented number of first year players continuing to get named each week at Freo and with Walters out for a couple, the JS train keeps on rolling. If anything, you would expect some of the teenagers to get a spell before 20yr old Duman.

    Has played a couple of reasonable games out of defense with an 85 SC (87% TOG) and 53 SC (68% TOG), with a good DE and probably only hampered by a lower TOG last week. Certainly a better money making option as a downgrade and holds good cow potential even at a conservative 65 average. If you need the coin and can wear the shaky JS combined with the rest of your defense then jump on him. If you can wait a week on downgrades then strap yourself in for the round 7 bubble extravaganza.

    There are quite a few other rookies on the bubble in Gallucci, Poholke, Lipinski and Weideman but their scoring to date doesn’t signal “cash cow”. Pass.

    Premium watchlist

    Daniel Rich Bris Def $502K BE 165 Avg 60

    Patrick Dangerfield Gee Mid $640K BE 133 Avg 112

    Tom Mitchell Haw Mid $601K BE 140 Avg 126

    Dustin Martin Rich Mid $608K BE 165 Avg 121

    Josh Kelly GWS Mid $602K BE 162 Avg 105

    Matt Crouch Adel Mid $561K BE 167 Avg 85

    Bryce Gibbs Adel Mid $517K BE 154 Avg 101

    Clayton Oliver Melb Mid $570K Be 130 Avg 111

    Rookie Watchlist

    Ben Ronke Syd Fwd $123K (1 game @ 92)

    Charlie Spargo Melb F/M $117K (1 game @ 81)

    Kobe Mutch Ess Mid $123K (1 game @ 66)

    James Worpel Haw Mid $117K (1 game @ 64)

    Oscar McInerney Bris Ruck $123K (1 game @ 54)

    Flynn Appleby Coll Def $122K (1 game @ 53)

    Nick Shipley GWS Mid $117K (1 game @ 41)

    Jack Petrucelle WC F/M $117K (1 game @ 12)

    Smokie pick

    James Sicily Haw F/D $448K BE 21 Avg 105
    More of a morally speculative pick than a smokie. Still in 20% of teams.
    Will he miss more games through stupidity?
    You’d hope not but stranger things have happened.
    Plenty of upside at low price, DPP and only one game under 110.
    Coin toss.
    Last edited: May 4, 2018
    • Like Like x 3


Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, May 3, 2018.

    1. tk
      Is there a reason Hurn wouldn't be on the list? $480K with average 102 and BE 84. Seems cheap-ish to me. I was almost certainly going to bring him in this week until I read these BBs!! Should I be concerned that he's unlikely to be top 8 defender by the end of the year? Any pearls of wisdom?
      • Like Like x 2
    2. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Well spotted. Had him on my short list but missed him in the final version.
      • Like Like x 2
    3. Owen
      @walesy When I click on the blog link I'm just getting an error:

      TooSerious - Error
      A server error occurred. Please try again later.
      • Like Like x 1
    4. anthak
      Thanks for the writeup KI guy

      Im actually going against all wisdom and bringing in Cole and Robbie Gray this week
    5. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Strange one.
      The blog link via forum page is still working.
      • Like Like x 1
    6. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Not completely unwise Ant.
      Given the omission of Mirra and Guelfi, any rookie with some semblance of js is better than cold, stagnant donuts.
      • Like Like x 2
    7. anthak
      yeah but it seems strange to me to be paying for a high-priced rookie at this stage of the season, and a premium who I know will miss a game in a couple of weeks...
      • Like Like x 1
    8. anthak
      Ive been getting this late arvo today. Not sure whats the issue...
    9. Len
      Full code for that section

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    10. Len
      Wisdom is over-rated imo :)

      Round 7
      Kelly ($602,400)
      Treloar ($591,200)
      Venables ($170,500)
      Giles-Langdon ($163,300)
      • Like Like x 1
    11. anthak
      Well that explains it then... :confused:
    12. Owen
      Tooserious seems to be back and working properly for me now. Not sure what you did @walesy but good job!
      • Like Like x 3
    13. port_leschenault
      Thanks KI Guy. Doing the standard Merrett pick up this week. Trying to figure out the next one. Gray is too expensive imo but definitely need to bring him in but with Danger on the horizon next week it's all about the money.
      • Like Like x 1
    14. Owen
      Jaeger to JPK and Christensen to Neale/Merret for me. I can't quite to decide on which one yet.
    15. IPOD
      Looking at Walters out and Ryan as well have cash (440k) but also have zorko pooing it up. Was going to just bitwe the bullet spend all cash (bar 27k) and Go Heeney and McLean or do i down Ryan to a Ronke and keep cash to up Zorko next week?

      Option 1 - Heeney and Mclean
      Option 2 - Heeney and Sicily
      Option 3 - Mclean and Sicily
      Option 4 Heeney/Mclean and Ronke
      Option 5 - Zorko - da
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 6
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 2
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    16. Nick
      After Holman's small score going
      Holman > Zerrett

      Need to fix the fwds where Buddy is on the pine and Billings stinking it royally. Don't see Billings or Saints improving any time soon so going to punt him as a failed premium...

      Billings > Sicily

      Hoping he's over all his anger problems. At his price and average he's too good to ignore. Should cut the Bombers up the way we are playing.

      Saves $85k in the kitty for one up/one down into the rest of upgrade season
      • Like Like x 6
    17. RPritch
      I'm doing the same two trades this week
    18. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Yep Holman to Zerrett here.

      Second trade is a bit shakier
      Not really forced to trade, as can field 22.
      Just want to fix some problem areas with cash before looking at Danger/Crouch and a rookie next week.

      TU - Parker > TMitch (30-40 point gain)
      TD - Buddy > Sicily (30-40 point gain by not fielding English)
      Option 1 - Buddy > Heeney (40-50 point gain by not fielding English)
      • Like Like x 2
    19. port_leschenault
      Holman or Banfield a better trade out target? Feeling Holman could score a 70+ and be worth holding a week or two but last two weeks are deffo bad. Banfield closest I have to a rookie hitting his wall. Or it's guys like Murray and don't wish to trade out there yet.

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