Bye Rounds - Its time to THINK

Discussion in 'AFL' started by GaryReal, May 15, 2012.

  1. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from fidelsfinger on May 15, 2012, 17:33
    Have been only aiming for league win from start coz was too late getting into any decent points cash leagues.

    With my whole team including bench all seeing action except redden in ruck, might hold off on trades for 2-3 weeks unless something irresistible pops up
    my current bye rounds status is : (11-12-13) :

    D = 2 / 3 / 4
    M = 2 / 4 / 2
    R = 2 / 0 / 2
    F = 2 / 2 / 5
    ---

    My round 11 bye round opponent has :

    D = 3 / 0 / 6
    M = 3 / 1 / 4
    R = 0 / 2 / 2
    F = 5 / 1 / 3
    (happy to not be facing him round 12)
    ---

    Round 12 opponent =

    D = 3 / 4 / 2
    M = 4 / 2 / 2
    R = 3 / 1 / 0
    F = 6 / 2 / 1
    Happy to not be facing him round 13, wish i had him round 11)
    ---

    Round 13 opponent =

    D = 3 / 1 / 5
    M = 3 / 3 / 2
    R = 2 / 1 / 1
    F = 5 / 2 / 2
    (wish i had him round 11)
    ---

    Now's the time to monitor opponents bye rounds preparedness & start moving to balance your teams accordingly.
    an acceptable sacrifice for league wins is to consolidate 2 bye wins & cop 1 loss.
    </blockquote>

    @ff - I think this is a good approach - however I would also look at calculating projected scores per player. the reason being is if I have 8 premiums on the nech but no donuts, my opponent may sneak past me (labeit playing 20 vs 22) by having more premiums playing that week !

    Also watch out for your opponent using the same analysis and either tankign against you meaning you waste trades (but win by a mile) or bringing in the heavy artillery which could also watse trades without giving you the win !!
     
  2. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    <blockquote>Quote from TheOnion on May 18, 2012, 15:28
    I've done quick analysis on my team (currently sitting around 20,000th in SC) and it will score approx 1700 to 1800 per round in the byes with no trades. It seems most competitive teams will score roughly 5000 to 5500 SC points across the 3 bye rounds no matter which way you weight your team.

    I believe astute players will lift this point tally the most with the following factors...

    - Trades, if you have 'em up your sleeve. After bye rd 1, getting Rd 11 premiums in for Rd 12 and 13 rookies..etc.

    - MPP's. Hasn't been a big deal so far this year but in the byes a F/M two way combo who don't share byes will kick ass

    - Luck. If you are GWS exposed and Sheeds goes into high rotation mode in rds 12 or 13, you might get very screwed or very lucky depending on the mix. Then we have the high altitude swan factor, and the man who does least for football as a spectacle (Ross Lyin) to consider.

    There will be a sea of donuts so no use crying if you cop a few. League wins will probably come from people that conserve trades during the bye rds, and use them to hit hard in the early finals rds. Overall winner may well come from someone who trades well in 11, 12 and 13.

    I still like the comment I heard earlier in the year...."in the bye rounds I intend to close my eyes". Gold. </blockquote>

    @ the onion - a good summary there !
     
  3. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    A quick question, in most cirumstances would you prefer to
    - a - make 1 trade to save 2 donuts (hopefully)
    - b - make 1 trade to save 1 donut (hopefully)
    - c - make 2 trades to save 1 donut (hopefully)

    Option A - is for anyone holding hall or any other rookie who has fallen off the
    radar. If you compare a sideays trade prior to Rd11 to someone with better JS you
    should more than likely save a pair of Krispy Kremes. It may not be the way you
    normally roll but could be worth doing if the player you bring in is a good'un.

    Option B - is for anyone already holding a Rd12 or Rd13 rookie and plans to trade
    them out that round. At first glance it is better than A but worse than C. You
    need to factor in &#36;&#36; gained, upgrade strtegy, your ability to snatach a tight
    league win etc, so it could still be a reasonable proposition.

    Option C - is for anyone trading into rookies in Rds8-10 that you intend to
    trade out during their Rd 12 or Rd 13 bye. Uou woiudl want great job secuity
    and point scoring potential compared to the player you are trading out. IMO it
    might already be to late to trade in a rd12 bye rookie and this week may be your
    last chnace to trade in a Rd13 bye rookie and make enough &#36;&#36;&#36; to justify BOTH
    trades.

    I think the tiltle to this thread is a apt, but caution everyone not to OVERTHINK
    things. If you are making a trade you would happily make if the multibyes didnt
    exist then in my opinion you prbably you can't go too far wrong. The same goes
    if you have two options that are fairly equal and you favour one becuase of the
    bye. If you are gainign tunnel vision and tradign just for points or league
    wins during the multibyes then I hope it pays off for you but my gut is tellign
    me that you dont want to wwaste trdes or compromise your ability to perofmr at
    your maximum during the other 20 rounds, or 17 league matchup weeks (incl finals).

     

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