Finals week 2: Can the run of favourites continue for another week? Who knows, that's why we punt on the result!. Geelong vs North Melbourne should be a great game with both teams playing well towards the end of the regular season. Last week the Kangas woke up after half-time and only needed to play a half a game to beat the Bombers. I don't think they can afford to get off to a slow start against the Cats as they will damage them more than what the Bombers did. The Sportsbet market has Geelong favoured @ $1.80 while the Kanga's are $2.05. The line is currently @ Geelong -2.5. With the outs of McIntosh and Johnson the Cats have eased from $1.68 to $1.80. This is a significant move by the punters, who have pushed North's price in from as high as $2.25 from when markets opened. I will be picking the Cats and it will be a close game with the margin being 20 points. The game on Saturday night between Fremantle and Port Adelaide will be a great game to watch also. The markets currently have Fremantle favourites @ $1.60 and Port Adelaide @ $2.40. The line is currently Fremantle -9.5. Port Adelaide will be buoyed by the confidence they had the week prior when they played 12 minutes of football to eliminate Richmond by PLENTY. Fremantle on the other hand, need to recover from the Swans loss from last week in a tight game at ANZ Stadium. There is a strong argument for both side to win. You can argue that the coaching style of Ross Lyon will prevent a flood of goals to his opposition. You can also argue strongly that Hinkley has transformed this Port Adelaide team into a team that needs full respect from it's opposition. No Ballantyne will impact the scoring ability for Freo and Pavlich will need to be the focal point up forward once again.. Port will rely heavily on players such as Wines & Wingard to snag a couple each to help their forwards. My selection in this game will be Fremantle by 10 points. Good luck to all the punters and my initial bets are below: Finals week 2/ bet 1: Geelong win bet:$80 odds:$1.80 Finals week 2/ bet 2: Ht margin - geelong 13-24 bet:$25 odds:$5.60 bets placed Friday 1:30pm aest
finals week 2/bet 3: fremantle win bet:$150 odds:$1.60 bet placed 5:23pm saturday aest futures market betting: fremantle 2014 premiers bet:$100 odds:$8.00 bet placed 5:23pm saturday aest
finals week 2/bet 4: live bet - fremantle over 15.5 points bet:$50 odds:$2.05 bet placed 3rd quarter 19 min mark
Finals week 2 wrap: <div> <div>Not much good news to report this week. Donuts!. Golden Duck !. Call it what you want but Crafty had a shocker. <div> <div>It appears that history was not on my side. It was the first time side the top 8 was developed that both losing top 4 teams from the first week, both lost in the second week. Perfect timing for me -shite! <div> <div>North did a great job to beat a fast finishing Geelong and the Kangas finished my $105. <div> <div>Fremantle losing is where I couldn't stop the bleeding. I had a win bet on them before the game, a couple of more bets on them during the game and a grand final bet on top of that. It sounds like this, 'loss,loss,loss,loss'. <div> <div>So I can't think of anything more to say. A bad week and that's that. <div> <div>I'll hopefully come back on Friday and pick some winners. Could it be a Kangas/Port grandfinal? <div> <div> Summary of finals week 2 & overall: Bets: 5 won 0 lost 5 Turnover for the round: $545 Winning Tickets: $0.00 Loss for the round: $545.00 Total bets: 197 Won 85 Lost 112 Loss for the year: $406.25 Turnover for the year: $11,717.00
Finals week 3 selections: Busy day at work and studying form is my excuse for the latish post. Apologies none the less. Four teams remain and two matches to decide our grand finalists. It starts tonight with Sydney hosting North Melbourne. The bookies have Sydney as very warm favourites @ $1.22 while North is the outsider @ $4.50. The line is currently @ +/- 28.5 for $1.92 Sydney at ANZ will be a tough job for North. Sydney play the ground very well and they have a very sound record against North. North did however win there last game at Sydney's other home the SCG. Boy oh' boy, which way will the money go. I do like the Swans to win. The $1.22 is short, but a win is a win. The line at 28.5 is tempting, as I think North might lose this in a close one. My initial bet will be Swans 1-39 @ $2.15. Live betting will always be an option. The second game has Hawthorn playing Port Adelaide. The Hawks are favourites @ $1.40 while Port are @ $3.05. The line is currently set @ +/- 18.5 points One would think that Hawthorn will win this game but you never know with the way Port are playing at the moment. My selection will be Hawthorn to win at the margin 1-39 @ $2.20. Once again live betting will become a part of festivities. Good luck to all punters out there and my initial bets are below: Finals week 3/ bet 1: Sydney 1-39 bet: $150 odds:2.15 FW 3/bet 2: Hawthorn 1-39 bet: $75 odds:$2.20 bets placed 5:10pm friday aest
It's been a demanding week at my end with two generations of family in hospital. My father is not well with asbestos affecting his well being and I got a call at 2:30am this morning that Grand dad passed away. In saying that above, I didn't focus on posting 2 further bets i had on the weekend. They were as follow: Finals week 3/ bet 3: Hawthorn 1-39 bet:$75 odds:$2.10 bet placed one minute before the bounce of the game 16:44 sat aest FW 3/ bet 4: live bet - Hawks/Port total game score <199.5 bet:$100 odds:$1.85 bet placed half way into 3rd quarter 18:32
Finals week 3 wrap We now have our two Grand Finalists - Sydney vs Hawthorn. The path both teams took were different. Sydney controlled the game from the outset and never looked like losing that one. I lived in hope that the Kangas might play a spirited last quarter and outscore the Swans by a couple of goals but it wasn't to be. The 1-39 bet on the Swans was gone. Hawthorn on the other hand, had to survive a massive rally by Port in the second half of the final quarter to earn their spot. I was thinking about loading up on Hawthorn to win this game, just to recover the losses from the previous week, then thought against this. I placed bets equal to that on the Swans game so I atleast broke square for the week. I saw the total points market during the third quarter and decided instead that both teams would score less than a combined of 200. I had a small dabble there, which worked out in my favour. So, I gain a little this week and my overall loss is reduced. I once again, hope that the punters out there had a win. At some stage this morning I will post my bets for the Brownlow medal and see if I can help the punters with a winner there. <div> Summary of finals week 3 & overall: Bets: 4 won 3 lost 1 Turnover for the round: $400 Winning Tickets: $507.50 Profit for the round: $107.50 Total bets: 201 Won 88 Lost 113 Loss for the year: $298.75 Turnover for the year: $12,117.00
Brownlow Medal selections: I did say, I would post my selections by the morning, but better late than never. My selections are below: bet 1: Sydney - most team votes bet:$50 odds:$1.60 bet 2: Marcus Bontempelli to poll a vote - YES bet:$20 odds:$1.80 bet 3: Brownlow winning margin - 1 VOTE bet:$35 odds:$2.75 bet 4: most votes for respective teams (multied) - HARVEY/HEPPEL/PENDLES bet:$50 odds:$2.15 These Players Only. Number in brackets is added to players final vote tally and includes ALL players in this market. Dead Heat Rules apply. 20:20 Ineligible Player Handicap Markets (1) Nathan Fyfe (Scratch) 7.00 Tom Rockliff (+5) 6.00 Steve Johnson (+6.0) 12.00 Hamish Hartlett (+9.0) 12.00 Brent Harvey (+6.5) 10.00 David Mundy (+8.0) 12.00 Brett Deledio (+9.0) 8.00 Josh J Kennedy (+10.0) 11.00 Luke Shuey(+11.0) 9.00 Brendon Goddard (+11.5) 12.00 Jarryd Roughead (+11.5) 10.00 Hayden Ballantyne (12.0) 10.00 Mark LeCras (+12.0) 12.00 Steele Sidebottom (+12.0) 10.00 On the market above: bet 5: T.Rockliff (+5) bet:$70 odds:$6.00 These Players Only. Number in brackets is added to players final vote tally. Dead Heat Rules apply. Winner is determined by the highest vote tally after applying their handicap and includes ALL players listed in the market. 20:20 Elite Player Handicap Markets (1) Joel Selwood (Scratch) 4.00 Gary Ablett (+0.5) 7.50 Nathan Fyfe (+0.5) 6.00 Josh P. Kennedy (+1.5) 9.00 Robbie Gray (+1.5) 9.00 Scott Pendlebury (+1.5) 29.00 Jordan Lewis (+2.0) 21.00 Matt Priddis (+2.0) 21.00 Lance Franklin (+2.5) 18.00 Dyson Heppell (+2.5) 21.00 Travis Boak (+3.0) 26.00 Trent Cotchin (+3.0) 26.00 Dayne Beams (+4.5) 18.00 Tom Rockliff (+4.5) 10.00 Aaron Sandilands (+5.0) 31.00 Dustin Martin (+6.0) 21.00 Luke Parker (+7.0) 21.00 Patrick Dangerfield (+7.0) 21.00 Brandon Ellis (+7.0) 26.00 Michael Barlow (+8.0) 21.00 bets 6,7 & 8 are on the above market bet 6: T.Rockliff (+4.5) bet:$20 odds:$10.00 bet 7: J.Selwood (scratch) bet: $64 odds: $4.00 bet 8: G. Ablett (+0.5) bet: $36 odds: $7.50 bet 9: Brownlow Winner - J.SELWOOD bet:$25 odds: $4.00 bet 10: Brownlow winner - G.Ablett bet:$25 odds:$6.00 All bets were placed between 5-6pm Monday aest Good Luck to all the punters
Brownlow Wrap: Thank goodness for live betting!. Priddis, Who would of thought? Well done to all the punters who snagged him at 25/1 before the call. I think we'll find the bookies had a good earn last night with the top 3 fancies not finishing as high as some punters thought. For me, it was the $510.00 live bet on Priddis @ $1.60 before the call of round 20 that has me walking away with a profit from this excursion as oppossed to a $200 +/- loss. My other winning tickets included, Sydney polling most team votes, Bontempelli polling atleast 1 vote and 3 players multied to win their respective team votes. Good Luck to those of you that had a win. Hopefully Bearfly and his syndicate got some return from their outlay also. Now I look ahead to the Grand Final and see if I can return to overall profit mode for the year. Summary of Brownlow & overall: Bets: 11 won 4 lost 7 Turnover for the round: $905 Winning Tickets: $985.86 Profit for the round: $80.86 Total bets: 212 Won 92 Lost 120 Loss for the year: $217.89 Turnover for the year: $13,022.00
good evening all, had a funeral today and just came home from the wake. for those interested I will post my grand final bets by midnight tonight. thanks for understanding.
Grand Final selection: Good morning followers, I fell asleep on the couch last night, woke up early this morning and thought I better tell the world my selections for the grand final. Hawthorn vs Sydney will be a very good game to watch. the best two teams meet and either team will be a deserving winner of the cup this year. My heart and head says it will be a Sydney victory. The majority of the punters seem to think the same as Sydney are favourites @ $1.58 to Hawthorns $2.45. The line is set currently @ 8.5. When these markets opened initially, the Swans were $1.62 and the Hawks $2.50. It has only been in the last couple of days where the Swans have firmed in from their opening price. If you think it will be a close game, Sportsbet are offering $2.18 for the Swans to win 1-39 while the Hawks are $2.90. Good luck to all on the punt and my selections are below. GF bet 1: Sydney 1-39 bet:$150 odds: $2.18 GF bet 2: total game points under 182.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.88 GF bet 3: quarter time line - Sydney -2.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.90 GF bet 4: quarter time margin - Sydney 9-16 bet: $50 odds: $5.60 GF bet 5: first goal scorer - Tippett bet:$10 odds:$10.00 GF bet 6: game winning margin - Sydney 1-24 bet:$30 odds: $3.30 All bets placed with Sportsbet between 6:30 - 7am Sat morning aest Once again, good luck to all punters. Live betting may take place on this game
a copy & paste from 3 live bets I had on the grand final with Sportsbet GF bet 7: Win 27/09/14 15:52 ? Sydney v Hawthorn Line Hawthorn (-31.5) @ 1.88 27/09/14 $1.88 $200.00 $376.00 ? GF bet 8: Win 27/09/14 15:51 ? Sydney v Hawthorn Winner - 3rd Quarter Only Hawthorn @ 2.40 27/09/14 $2.40 $150.00 $360.00 ? GF bet 9: Win 27/09/14 15:23 ? Sydney v Hawthorn Total Game Points - Over/Under Under (211.5) @ 1.85 27/09/14 $1.85 $200.00 $370.00 ? ?
Grand Final wrap: Live betting has saved me again! Every single bet I had pre game was on the Swans and all 6 bets ending up as losing tickets. It was at half time where I looked to recover my initial bets. The way the Hawks were playing in the engine room, I couldn't see them playing any different in the second half. I placed 3 live bets and all three got up. I decided to ante up and it worked. I was surprised that the line at half time was only 31.5 points. Seeing as the Hawks where 42 points up at half time, i thought they're already in front of the line, so why not jump on it. Jump I did and $200 @ $1.88 was money well spent. What i found interesting was the market for Hawthorn to win the third quarter. They were paying $2.40 and the Swans were $1.55. Now, hindsight is wonderful. But when I look at how the game was being played in the first half, I thought $2.40 were good odds. That bet hits. The one I was absolutely lucky with was the $200 I had on the total game score being less than 211.5 points. When I initially called sportsbet and put the bet on, the market was 210.5 points - to which I wanted to place $200 on. When the operator confirmed the bet, markets were suspended momentarily. I wasn't happy and just had to wait for the new price. That new market went to 211.5 points. With 4 minutes left to play in the game, the total game score was 211. I conceded defeat and was just waiting for a goal or a rushed behind to kill that bet. Four minutes later, siren goes and no one scored. The total score stood still at 211. i thought 'you beauty' - bet wins. So, I end up going from a $340 loss on this game to a $216 win. I hope once again that the punters out there had a win and my final summary is below: Summary of Grand Final & year overall: Bets: 9 won 3 lost 6 Turnover for the round: $890.00 Winning Tickets: $1,106.00 Profit for the round: $216.00 Total bets: 221 Won 95 Lost 126 Loss for the year: $1.79 Turnover for the year: $13,912.00
Final post for 2014. If you said to me at the start of the year that I would finish square for the year and there is no point in betting, I would of replied by saying 'Atleast I gave it a go'. Sure, I would have loved making lots of money on the AFL punt this year, but by only losing less than $2.00, it has been fun feeling the emotion of both winning and losing. Yes the losing bets outweighed the winning bets by 30 units, which makes the small loss even more pleasing. I'd like to thank each and every one of you for following my antics on the punt and I hope I provided some enjoyment for those that read the posts. For all the punters out there, I hope you had a successful year and I'm sure we will all be back next year to do it all again. There is only one bet left for the year. It will be on the NRL Grand Final and I strongly like South Sydney to win by 13+. Good Luck to all and see you next year for the 2015 Crafty's Punt.
Been an interested follower all year, many thanks for the time taken to keep those following informed, nice recovery in the GF
Great read all year Crafty, have thoroughly enjoyed following your adventure throughout the year and look forward to another dose again in 2015. Unfortunately the Brownlow syndicate wasn't as successful as we hoped, only collecting a fraction of our outlay Followed up on the GF (along with a small side bet on the Stan Fox Stakes in Sydney) and managed to almost stay square. Will be looking towards setting up a couple more punting syndicates for Spring Carnival racing (focussing on the major events), and of course we still have the Waaaay2SeriousPunters punt club operating and actively seeking new members.