week 17 / bet 6: live bet - geelong -67.5 bet:$60 odds: $1.88 bet placed 3:46pm aest (end of 3rd quarter)
week 17/bet 9:coll'wood ht/ft bet:$25 odds:$1.87 w17/b10: collwood/over 168.5 bet:$30 odds:$2.80 w17/b11: collwood -3.5 (1/4 time line) bet:$25 odds:$1.90 bets placed 2:50 aest
week 17/bet 12: freo -75.5 bet: $50 odds: $2.10 bet placed 4:28 aest ( didn't realise I forgot to post this selection at the time)
round 17 wrap: Finally back in the winners circle. Boy am I happy about that. Last week was the week where I placed the most amount of bets. Twelve bets and the strike rate was below 50% but I hit a profit. No complaints there. It all started with a poor selection in Adelaide. Lately my Friday tips have gone sour, which puts me on the back foot straight away. I missed placing a bet before the Cats/Demons game and boy did it cost me. Instead of taking the -36.5 on the cats, I decided to play two live bets at a much greater head start and both got shot down. Ouch. I'm glad I missed the Kangas/Saints bet as I would of been on the losing side of the line by 1/2 point. I had the 2 bets on the Doggies to beat Gold Coast and both got up. I was very pleased as I got good odds on both wins. With WCE and the Swannies getting up on Saturday night made for another good collect. Finally I hit a multi. WCE did have me worried in the last quarter though. Sunday could have been super Sunday but a change of mind cost me a treble win. The Tiges played their best game of the year to beat a declining Port and happy to collect there. The trouble I had was with the change of mind in betting on Collingwood. It was an $80 lesson learnt there. The last bet of the week and it was a last second decision but I took Freo with the massive start. In the end, the bet fell in my favour by the barest of margins (0.5) So there is life in me yet. Still on life support but breathing none the less. Summary of week 17 & overall: Bets: 12 won 5 lost 7 Profit for the week: $152.10 Total bets: 116 Won 47 Lost 69 Loss for the year: $1,690.10
round 18 selections: With six weeks left for the home and away season, I am hungry to recover my losses and still post a profit for the year. I can see my deficit shrinking even more by the end of this round. The action will start tonight with the Kangas beating Carlton. No fancy bets here, just a straight out Kangas win. I'm also pretty confident that the Kangas will get of to a good start and I like the 1/4 time line. Saturday sees the Saints host Freo and we should see the opposition score over a 100 points against the Saints again. Freo should be good at the -56.5 line. geelong have a line of -43.5 and they should achieve this. On Sunday, Port travel to the MCG and with their form being on the decline, I think Melbourne at the start +46.5 is a good bet. The last game of the bye round has the inform Bombers playing the Doggies. Money for jam here as the Bombers will salute. So I start with only tonight's bets and with a late afternoon Saturday game, I shouldn't have any excuses to miss placing a bet. Good luck to all punters out there and if you can throw some of your luck my way, it would be most welcomed. Selections below: week 18/bet 1: Kangas win bet: $100 odds: $1.25 w18/b2: Kangas -6.5 (1/4 time) bet: $25 odds: $1.90 bets placed 6:00pm aest
week 18/bet 3: away teams winning margin -105.5 (1st week games only) bet: $50 odds: $1.88 bet placed Friday 6:45pm aest
week 18/bet 5: stkilda +25.5 (live bet) bet:$60 odds:$1.88 w18/b6:st.kilda 1-39 (live bet) bet:$50 odds:$5.20 bets placed end of 1st quarter go saints!
round 18 part 1 wrap: what an unbelievable round of results we have seen so far this round. i was actually pleased that the final siren went on the last game of the week. it all started on friday when once again north melbourne let their supporters and punters down with a lazy, half-arsed performance. you'd think by now that when north are raging favourites in a game that you would back the underdog. then we get to saturday and i saw the score at 1/4 time in the saints freo game. what the...? i had to look twice. i then dropped everything and rang my friendly bookie and thought the original -56.5bet on freo was dead in the water, so i took the $5.20 on saints winning by less than 40. as an added interest i took the saints at +25.5 at $60. for this bet to lose, freo would need to outscore the saints by 46 points in the last three quarters. i then caught the half-time score and saw the saints up by 40. i'm thinking, surely they won't win by more than 40, freo has to come back. for amusement value, i then decided to take the saints at 40+ at $10.00. now, if this was any other footy team this year, there is no way the bookie would be handing out those odds. In the end, the line bet (+25.5) at $60 covered the original line bet on freo for $50. the $20 40+ points win covered the $50 1-39 bet and also wiped out most of my losses from the friday night. i was wrapped, damage averted and time to cheer for the cats. seeing the score at 1/4 time and i could smell a rat. not only did my 1/4 time bet lose, i thought there is no way the cats would reach the line. i let this one go. no live bets as i thought another upset was about to happen - and it nearly did. we get to sunday and i had the gut feeling the combination of the dees putting up a good performance along with port playing un-inspiring footy that the dees at +48.5 was good value. i always thought the bombers would take care of the western bulldogs and my gut went the wrong way on this one. i took the +48.5 (dees) into bombers -18.5. i was so close taking bombers just for the win in that multi but i was chasing the better odds. well, part 1 of the multi went to plan. the dees covered their line and i was actually barracking for them to make it another upset for the round. time now to see if the bombers can dominate. half time in that game and the bombers were getting outplayed. thinking that they wouldn't get their line, i placed a live bet at half time on the bombers to reach their new line of -3.5 at $150. the doggies surged out to a 20 point lead in the third quarter and here i was throwing more money on a losing result. in the end the bombers surged and managed to get over the line by 7 points. the -3.5 line bet hits and i thought, 'you beauty' so what a mixed case of emotions i and others must have gone through this round. from a supercoach point of view we are all trying to fully utilise the loophole with our captain. here i was trying to navigate multiple betting loopholes through live betting to make sure this round wasn't a disaster. in the end i am pleased, even though i copped a loss from the games played. i now look forward to this weeks games where, hopefully, the underdog will salute in most of the games. i hope you punters out their limited your losses and i would be interested to hear from anyone out there who had a very good result on the afl over the weekend. see you on friday and results are below; Summary of week 18 (so far) & overall: Bets: 11 won 3 lost 8 Turnover for the week: $660 Winning Tickets: $594.80 Loss for the week: $65.20 Total bets: 127 Won 50 Lost 77 Loss for the year: $1,755.30
Round 18 selections continued: Welcome back to a long round 18. I escaped with a couple of live bets with games played so far. I can only hope that I don't need to adopt the same policy for the second half of this round. Instead, hitting the original bets. We start with West Coast hosting Richmond. I am partly biased here but I do strongly believe that Richmond will take it up to the hosts. Along with the underdog dominating this round so far, I see this trend continuing with the rest of the games to complete this round. Punters with Sportsbet are thinking along the same lines as the Tigers opened up at $2.55 and have firmed to $2.30. Saturday and we have two games. It starts with Brisbane hosting the Gold Coast and I am thinking that Brisbane can continue the Gold Coast winless without Ablett curse. Brisbane has firmed from $2.85 to $2.60 and have a 12.5+ start. The Saturday night game will be a ripper at the MCG. The Swans will continue their winning ways. I don't believe the Hawks are settled at the moment and the Swans will continue their winning streak. The Swans are favourites at $1.88 and at this stage I have a gut feeling that they could dominate and win easily. The $6.00 on offer for 40+ isn't far from my thinking. The last game is Collingwood against Adelaide. Collingwood is playing terrible football at the moment. Adelaide also doesn't inspire a lot of confidence as they have lost their last three Melbourne games. As the slight underdog, I am leaning towards Adelaide. It will be a close game and the $2.50 1-40 margin for the Crows could be the go here. Like always, I will only select tonight's game before making decision on what happens on the weekend. I hope all us punters can recover our losses from a bizarre start to this round and maybe take something back from the bookie. Good luck and selections below. week 18/ bet 12:Richmond win bet:$50 odds:$2.30 w18/b13:Richmond 1-19 bet:$50 odds:$4.40 w18/b14: Richmond +7.5/Brisbane +12.5/Sydney/Adelaide 1-39 bet:30 odds:$17.32 w18/b15:Richmond 1-39/Brisbane 1-39/Sydney/Adelaide 1-39 bet:$20 odds:$40.06 all bets placed 4:57pm friday aest good luck to all punters and let's see if we can make a little money this weekend.