Round 18 Wrap: On the punt in the second half in round 18 was very profitable. There were no headaches and no live betting drama's. It all started brilliantly with Richmond beating West Coast. The head to head bet came in and as an added bonus, I hit a 3 goal bracket for the Tigers to win in (1-19) and it paid $4.40. Saturday afternoon saw an insipid Gold Coast performance which made me very happy. This was the 7th game of the week where the underdog at the line proved to be the successful bet. I was quite happy taking the Lions just for the win @ $2.60. The evening game is where my 4 leg multi came unstuck, which after the Sunday result, cost me a collect of over $500 for a $30 ticket. None the less, the Hawks came back from 23 points down and saluted. My $50 win bet on the Swans was refunded by Sportsbet under their existing promotion. If the team you select loses by less than 21 points, it's money back up to $100. Sunday we saw Adelaide control most parts of the game and my $50 win ticket saluted. So, this 4 game weekend proved to be the most successful week I have had on the punt this year, which gives me confidence to recover losses before the end of the year. Now I look forward to this weeks games and hopefully I can continue this positive trend of being paid by the bookie. Good luck to all those who won on the punt and for those footy tipsters, I hope you got away with a respectable score this week. Summary of week 18 & overall: Bets: 18 won 8 lost 10 Turnover for the round: $960 Winning Tickets: $1,205.80 Profit for the round: $245.80 Total bets: 134 Won 55 Lost 79 Loss for the year: $1,509.50
Round 19 selections: It only feels like we finished round 18 yesterday and here we are again playing Thursday night football. There isn't much too write up today as we only have the one game tonight and all other teams will finalise squads Thursday and Friday. So tonight we have Freo hosting Carlton. I do like Freo here. They are too short for my liking for the win. After they got destroyed by the lowly Saints last week, they need to get respect back for the punter to have any real crack at $1.13. Carlton on the other hand played a very committed game last start against the Roos. I think they will continue with this passion and committment and take it right up to Freo. Now, the best bet for this game is Carlton at the line. They are getting a 37.5 point start. It wouldn't surprise me if Carlton wins this game. Recent history tells me that they have won 3 of their last 4 starts at Subiaco and the game they lost, they only lost by a goal. I know history has no bearing for the current in footy but use this information wisely. I can't see Freo scoring more than 90 points in this game and I believe Carlton will score a minimum of 60. Based on this, the 37.5 start that Carlton are getting, is a bargain bet. A post on the rest of the games for the week will be completed tomorrow. week 19/bet 1:Carlton +37.5 bet: $75 odds:$1.92 bet placed Thurs 1:36pm aest
Round 19 selections continued: Well it's been a good start to the round on the punt as I hit the nail on the head with my first selection in Carlton not losing by more than 37.5. Let's see if I can continue on winning ways. Sportsbet once again are promoting their (if your team loses by 20 or less -max bet $100), you will be refunded. I'm not here to condone gambling or promote their offer, but it's something the punter may think about if picking a team straight out for the win. Tonight we see Sydney at home to the Bombers. Sydney have won the last three at home against them and deserve favoritism for tonight's clash. The Swans are giving away a 30.5 start and I do like this bet. I will be watching the game tonight and depending on scores at 1/4 and 1/2 time, live bets may be placed accordingly. The early afternoon game on Saturday is Adelaide vs WCE. Adelaide at home are favourites and rightly so. I don't like the $1.20 win bet as I look for better value. The Crows 1-39 @ $2.30 could be the go here Richmond play GWS at the MCG. The $1.09 win bet is too short. Richmond should win and Tiger fans would be looking for a similar winning margin when they met earlier in the year. The 40+ @ $1.68 or the -44.5 line @ $1.92 could be the go here. Saturday night and there are two games. The Kangaroos play the Cats under the roof at Etihad. This game has warning signals everywhere. North are playing a top flight team and have been winning these games. geelong are just getting by putting wins on the board. Geelong at the win will be my initial bet on this game at odds of $1.66. This will be a game I'll take advantage of the Sportbet promotion should the Cats lose by 20 or less. The Saints travel to Metricon Stadium to face the Suns. Ablett + Metricon = Gold Coast win. Seeing as there is no Ablett in this equation on this occassion, I like the Saints for the win. The $3.15 win bet or the +20.5 line are the go here. Just to note, the Saints have firmed from as much as $6.00 to $3.15 to win this game. On Sunday, Melbourne are playing Brisbane. Melbourne are the go here. I like them at the 1-39 market @ $2.20. If Brisbane win, they won't win by more than 20, so the Melbourne win bet @ $1.73 could appeal to some punters. The Hawks are playing the Bulldogs in Tassie and should post a win. If Hawthorn turn up and play in the same spirit as they did against Sydney, the 42.5 start they are giving to the Bulldogs will be achieved. The last game of the round has Collingwood playing Port at the G. This is a game of two poorly under performing teams at the moment. Port won the most recent encounter, but the Pies have won the previous six games. I don't rate Port at the moment. I like the Pies at $2.25 the win and would like to think that this win might spark their interest in playing good football leading to a finals appearance (just)!. So there you have it. Let's see if I can continue on my winning ways and avoid unnecessary live betting. Selections are: week 19/bet 2:Sydney -30.5 bet:$50 odds:$1.92 w19/b3:Saints +20.5 bet:$50 odds:$1.92 bets placed 1:40pm friday east
week 19/bet 4: Adelaide/Richmond/Geelong bet:$75 odds:$2.08 week19/bet 5:Adelaide 1-39 bet:$50 odds:$2.30 bets placed fri 11:00pm aest
week 19/bet 7: geelong win bet:$100 win:$1.68 w19/b8:geelong ht/ft bet:$50 odds:$2.10 bets placed sat 6:15pm aest
week 19/bet 9:melbourne win bet:$75 odds:$1.73 week 19/bet 10: Collingwood win bet $75 odds: $2.25 week 19/bet 11: Melbourne/hawthorn/Collingwood bet:$50 odds:$4.32 bets placed sunday 7:15am aest
Round 19 Wrap: A mixed round of results for me and I'm glad the round finished the way it did. The losing bets outweighed the winning bets but I gladly finished in profit mode for the week. The first 6 bets of the week resulted in only the one winner and the last 6 bets resulted in four collects. It all started with the Nostradamus logic in selecting Freo to win but ensuring the Carlton line bet of +37.5 saluted. I was happy patting myself on the back then the next 5 results went against me. After Buddy was a late out, my -30.5 on the Swans looked weak. Half time and the Swans are leading by 28 and I thought 3 points....no problem. Essendon outscores the Swans in the 2nd half and bet is dead. West Coast in the last 3 weeks have been playing ordinary football and Adelaide at home was the right choice. An upset occurs, which is nothing unusual and the Crows 1-39 bet dies. The single didn't bother me that much. It was the 3 leg multi. After Richmond and Geelong were winners in the other games, the Meatloaf song was ringing in my mind. The Richmond -45.5 bet died also, considering the Tigers were up by 34 at half time. Gold Coast finally won their first game without Ablett and there goes another bet down the gurgler. I then get to Saturday night minus $240. I had enough belief that Geelong would triumph, and was pleased that the final scoreboard read them the winner. The head to head came in and the ht/ft bet also hits. Along comes Sunday and I have cut my loss down to about $120 for the round. The Melbourne vs Lions game started proceedings and when the Dees kicked the first goal of the last quarter and lead by 13, I thought at worst that the Dees wouldn't lose by more than 20 - hence, money back if they happened to lose. Final siren and they lose by 23 and I thought about 'choking'. I didn't have a bet on the Hawthorn game as I 'ummed and arred' whether they would cover the line of -42.5. That they did. I instead had them in a 3 leg multi with Richmond and Melbourne - Oh what could have been! Last game of the round and can the Pies deliver hope for their supporters and give me a collect. I placed an initial bet on the Pies early in the day and after Melbourne were outscored by 6 goals, after holding a two goal lead early in the last, I placed an anger bet. I placed a larger bet on the Pies and if they win, I hit profit mode. I wasn't tracking the game and was stoked that the 76-70 read in their favour. So I escape this week due to the 'get out stakes' and am looking forward in doing well in Round 20. I need to apologise to followers that I placed two incorrect posts. I had Sydney for the win @ $1.92 but punters would have picked up that I took Sydney at the line. The other was for forgetting to post the second Collingwood win bet. The mind was elsewhere at that time (go dees?). For the punter it is worth to note that this week, 6 of the 9 line bets went in the favour of the underdog. The previous week 7 of the 9 results went to the underdog. I don't know what we can draw from this but it is something worth considering for future matches. Once again, I hope you the punter had a profitable punting experience and to the tipster, I hope you went well and well done to those who tipped the card. Round 20 article will be written around Friday midday. See you then. Summary of week 19 & overall: Bets: 12 won 5 lost 7 Turnover for the round: $880.00 Winning Tickets: $915.75 Profit for the round: $35.75 Total bets: 146 Won 60 Lost 86 Loss for the year: $1,473.75
Round 20 selections; We kick off with tonight's game between Essendon and Richmond. Essendon should win this game to confirm a finals spot but I believe the Tigers will cause the upset and salute by under 40 points. The first Saturday game has the Kangaroos travel to the home of GWS and are near certainties to salute. However, the Roos have stumbled before when being raging favourites. North by under 40 points is the go here. The traditional timeslot has Carlton playing the Gold Coast. Carlton at the -13.5 line @ $1.92 should be money for jam. The Hawks are playing the Demons and should cover their line of -53.5. Saturday night and the Swans travel to the Adelaide oval to face Port Adelaide.. The bug that went through Port is enough for me to select the Swans. The win @ $1.42 is short but a collect is a collect. The other night game between the Cats and Freo is the game of the round. The Cats at home is my selection and their could be a nice dust up between Johnson and Crawley as well. The Cats at 1-39 @ $2.05 will give you a very good run for your money. Sunday and we have the Lions up against the Crows. With a finals spot up for grabs, we should see the Crows win here. The line of -12.5 is the go here for the Crows. The Saints are playing the Bulldogs and the Bulldogs should win. I like the Saints here at +24.5 @ $1.92. The last game of the round has West Coast facing Collingwood. Remarkably the bookies opened Collingwood up as favourites when markets first opened and the punters have jumped all over West Coast at their opening price. My selection here is West Coast and the 1-39 @ $2.30 is a solid move. So there we have it. Good Luck to all punters and my initial selections are below; week 20/bet 1:Richmond 1-39 bet: $65 odds: $2.70 week 20/bet 2: Richmond HT/FT bet: $35 odds: $3.10 week 20/bet 3: Richmond/North/Carlton -13.5/Hawthorn/Sydney/Geelong/Adelaide/West Coast bet:$35 odds:$28.54 bets placed 5:40pm aest Friday
Round 20 Wrap: I HAVE FINALLY DONE IT!. It's taken 20 rounds of AFL football to finally hit a monster of a payout. I didn't have that many bets this round as I had an 8 leg multi which started on Friday night and finished up with the last game of the round on Sunday. More on that later. I started my journey with bets on Richmond against the Bombers. The 1-39 bet gets paid and I was somewhat lucky the HT/FT bet won. With 2 seconds to go before half time, Cotchin gets paid a free kick 20 metres out for a hold and his kick broke the level scores at half time. I'll get to bet 3 later (8 leg multi). Bet 4 and I had North Melbourne to win by less than 40 into Carlton to beat the Gold Coast. At half time, the Roos lead by 4 points and I was pleased. Third quarter comes along and they smash GWS and the winning margin is over 40. Carlton in the 2nd leg did as required as they destroyed Gold Coast. This multi is dead. I didn't touch the Hawks vs Demons game as I couldn't decide which side of the line to bet on. The 53.5 line either way was set well by the bookie as the winning margin to Hawthorn was 50 points. On Saturday night there were two blockbusters and to get some value, I took the two favourites in a 2 leg multi. The Swans triumphed over Port and the Cats escaped with a thrilling 2 point win at Kardinia Park. We get to the three games on Sunday and it started with Brisbane hosting the Lions. To beef up some odds I took Adelaide in this game into the Saints not to lose by more than 23 points in the second game. Well in the first game Adelaide destroyed their opposition and just waiting to see if the Saints would play for Lenny. In that game, the Bulldogs held all the cards. They led by 30 odd throughout and I was lucky once again with this bet. Last quarter and the Saint fight back to get within 12 points with 2 minutes to go. Dogs then go bang, bang and lead is 24. There is now 9 seconds left and somehow they kick the ball hurriedly and it lands in the hands of a forward. Siren goes and I just need any score from 35 metres out. St.Kilda kick a point and the 2 leg multi comes in. So twice this round, I received luck with less than 10 seconds left on the clock. Was this a sign that this could be my lucky round? Now we have one game left and the Eagles are hosting the Pies. This is where the 8 leg multi comes in play. Outside of the Bulldogs/Saints game I had selected all the correct legs with Richmond the only underdog in my selections. I took Carlton at the -13.5 line to add further value and selected favourites for all other games. 7 legs down and I've hit all 7. All I now need is West Coast to beat the Pies and I turn $35 to just under $1,000. I was thinking about the Pies winning and was deciding on how much money to bet on the Pies so I could at least walk away with something. At one stage I was prepared to bet $500 on the Pies at $2.20 so either way I would have won $500 profit. Even a draw wouldn't have killed me as half the odd would of been paid in that game and I still hit a $500 collect. The game starts and I don't ring Sportsbet as I listen intently to the radio on which team gets the jump. Live betting was always an option in this game. WCE leads at 1/4 time and I didn't ring. 1/2 time and a 17 point lead to the Eagles and I still don't ring. I then listened throughout the match. Final siren goes and I didn't lay off and the tiny $35 multi hits and just under a $1000 hits the account. You bloody ripper!. It was one of the lowest rounds for me in terms of turnover but it has proved to be the most profitable round of the year by far. On a side note, I mentioned last week that the underdog had won 13 of 18 line bets in the last two weeks. In round 19, 4 of the 9 results went to the underdog, with most favourites winning by solid margins. Walesy mentioned in a blog two weeks ago about training loads. I just think it comes down to the law of averages. By years end, line betting victors will balance out. I hope all the punters following this forum, had a win on the punt and to the tipsters - I finally tipped the card! A 19 point win to the Eagles would of been icing on the cake as Sportsbet would have paid me more for tipping the card with correct margin. I ain't complaining about the 60 point margin as I didn't stress in the last quarter. So that's me done for another week and it is awesome to see that the bookie doesn't have a stack of my money (touched wood!) and my deficit has been smashed. Summary of week 20 & overall: Bets: 6 won 5 lost 1 Turnover for the round: $275.00 Winning Tickets: $1,573.50 Profit for the round: $1,238.50 Total bets: 152 Won 65 Lost 87 Loss for the year: $235.25
Round 21 selections: Friday night and we have the Cats vs the Blues. No Bartel and SJ which is interesting. It shouldn't effect a Geelong win, but will have some of us thinking if Carlton can cause the upset. For me it's the Cats 1-39 @ $2.25 On Saturday we have the three afternoon games, starting with Sydney against St.Kilda. Sydney will will this and some might be asking, 'How much by?'. To get any value on the Swans and your looking at the line betting. I like the Swans here at a -67.5 start. Gold Coast and Port should be a good battle. Port are crumbling like an overcooked apple crumble and the Suns kknow how to win without Gary. I believe Port will win the game but my bet is the Suns +18.5. I think it will be close and the upset is on. Essendon against West Coast will be a ding dong affair. This is West Coast's elimination final. Watson back for the Bombers and that will fire up them. I am leaning slightly towards West Coast here for the pure reason they have more firepower up forward. West Coast 1-39 @ $2.95 will give you a good run for your money. Two Saturday night games and Richmond's fate will be decided when they play Adelaide at the Adelaide oval. The Tigers have won four of their past 5 in South Australia and are playing their 7th elimination final in a row. For me, it's the under-dog - Richmond 1-39 @ $3.40. Collingwood against Brisbane at the G and expect Collingwood to bounce back from their loss last week and post a solid victory. The -37.5 start will be enough for Collingwood to cover and have the punters collect. On Sunday we start with North against the Bulldogs and North will be too strong here. I like the Kanga's here at the line -20.5. They are playing good football as opposed to their opposition. Melbourne against GWS will not hold interest for many but for those looking to have a bet here, I like the GWS. They won't win by much so the $3.40 on offer for the 1-39 margin is a good grab at value. The last game has blockbuster written all over it. Freo host the Hawks. My money will be on Freo in a tight encounter. The $2.25 on Freo for the 1-39 margin has collect written all over it. Good luck to all punters and my initial selections are below: week 21/bet 1: Geelong 1-39 bet:$65 odds:$2.25 week 21/bet 2: geelong ht margin 13-24 bet:$20 odds:$5.00 week 21/bet 3: geelong/sydney/gold coast +18.5/west coast 1-39/richmond +15.5/collingwood/north -20.5/freo 1-39 bet:$20 odds:$80.84 bets placed friday 5:37pm aest
week 21/bet 4:Sydney -67.5 bet:$40 odds:$1.92 week 21/bet 5: Gold Coast +18.5 bet:$40 odds:$1.92 bets placed Saturday 12:06am aest
week 21/bet 6: West Coast 1-39 bet:$40 odds: $2.95 week 21/bet 7: West Coast +9.5 bet: $20 odds: $1.92 week 21/ bet 8: Richmond +15.5 bet:$40 odds:$1.92 week 21/bet 9: Collingwood -36.5 bet:$40 odds:$1.92 bets placed saturday 4:37pm aest
Round 21 wrap: Another successful week on the punt and that's now 5 weeks in a row that I've had a profitable week. Over the 21 rounds played to date, I have had 11 profitable weeks and 10 unsuccessful weeks. I started round 21 off with a win on the Cats against the Blues. I had the two bets here with the larger Geelong 1-39 bet covering the $20 loss on them leading by a certain margin at half time. Saturday started with the Swans getting up by 71 and my -67.5 won. It was a tight finish to the line betting there as the Saints had their chances to get to their line. Gold Coast and Port had a close match and I was happy when my Gold Coast line bet +18.5 saluted. The twilight game involving the Bombers and West Coast was great if you had money on the Bombers. I didn't and copped a loss there. Nice fightback by the Bombers puts them a step closer in making the 8. Saturday night we saw Collingwood ripped apart with injuries and Brisbane wins comfortably. My bet -36.5 on the Pies was gone by half time. The other night game saw Richmond continue their remarkable run and my bet on them wins. On Sunday I only had the one bet where I multied North into Freo. I only had them for the win and was happy with the collect there. I didn't bet on the Demons vs GWS game and if I did, I would have lost as the margin they won by was greater than 40. In terms of line betting, 6 teams at the + won. There seems to be a trend here lately, and one which I am watching closely. So at the end of this round, I have again reduced my deficit and i am nearly back to where I started the year. Nice roller coaster ride it's been also. Once again, I hope the punters out there had a win and for those in tipping comps I hoped you tipped the odd roughie and posted a solid score. Summary of week 21 & overall: Bets: 10 won 6 lost 4 Turnover for the round: $375.00 Winning Tickets: $532.55 Profit for the round: $157.55 Total bets: 162 Won 71 Lost 91 Loss for the year: $77.70
Round 22 selections: There are some exciting games this weekend that will closer shape the top 8 and shuffle positions within the top 4. Let's see if I can make some cash picking some winners. It starts tonight with Port hosting Carlton. Port Adelaide are warm favourites at $1.28. Seeing as Carlton have won 4 of their past 5 in Adelaide against Port, there confidence will be high to do it all again. For mine it's Carlton at the line of +25.5. On Saturday, North and Adelaide kick us off. No Boomer might upset North and I think they will take out their frustrations on Adelaide. Adelaide must win to stay in the 8 so they won't be holding anything back either. North have only won 5 of 17 games against Adelaide. Four of those wins have come at home and I am selecting them to make it another win at home. The $1.76 is somewhat of a fair price unless you decide the -4.5 line is reasonable at $1.92. The Bombers are playing Gold Coast at Etihad and Essendon (one would think!) will win this. It won't be a belting so the $2.25 for the 1-39 margin looks appealing. For line punters, the -32.5 is just about spot on. GWS are hosting Collingwood and with all the Collingwood outs, it wouldn't suprise me if GWS post a win here. They have only met on the two occassions to date with Collingwood convincing in both. This, I think, will be a little different. Collingwood will just sneak home and the $1.63 for just the win is where money should go. Saturday night and we have the two games. The Hawks are up against the Cats. History tells us this will be a close, enthralling encounter. I am swayed to the Cat's here. At $2.65 the win, I think this is a good bet for a two horse race. The 1-39 on the Cat's is paying $3.20 for those that think Geelong have forgotten how to win by over 40 points. The line is set well at 12.5 points so taking the Cats at +12.5 might be a good option @ $1.92. For me, I do think the Cats will just scrape through and I'll be greedy and take the 1-39 @ $3.20. The other night game involves West Coast and Melbourne and this will be a good win for West Coast. The $1.03 is short for the average punter. The line of 59.5 is fair and this is where my money will go on West Coast. On Sunday, we kick things off with Brisbane against Fremantle. My money will sit on Freo here. The line betting here is at 23.5 and I think Freo will just make the line. The Bulldogs are hosting the Swans at Etihad and the Swans will win this. The line is currently set at 33.5 and the Swans should do this comfortably. The last two starts at Etihad, the Swans have won by 35 and 82 points respectively. The last game of the round and Richmond take on St.Kilda. Richmond should win this game and to have any chance of making the finals they need to belt St.Kilda (for % purposes). My money will rest on the Tigers to make it eight in a row and my money will sit on them making the line of -44.5. The game earlier in the year saw Richmond win by 44. So there we have it. Hopefully I have guided some punters the right way to make some cash and just as important, I make some cash too. As always I will only confirm betting for tonight's game and the rest will follow accordingly. week 22/bet 1:Carlton +25.5 bet:$60 odds$1.92 week 22/bet 2: QT Carlton 1-8 point margin bet:$20 odds:$5.20 bets placed Friday 4:38pm aest.