'ouch' as in i lost money on friday night! - nothing unusual there. it will be ouch though if i keep losing this round. Len, lets see if this will be called super saturday!
week 22/bet 4: north -3.5/essendon -32.5/collingwood bet:$75 odds:$6.00 week 22/bet 5: north/collingwood bet:$75 odds:$3.01 week 22/bet 6:north/essendon/collingwood/geelong 1-39/west coast -58.5/fremantle -21.5/sydney -33.5/richmond -41.5 bet:$25 odds:$153.24 bets placed 12:33pm saturday aest
no pre betting on the brisbane / freo game. this may turn to be a live betting game. other games will have selections posted by 2pm today.
week 22/bet 9: sydney -33.5 bet:$50 odds:$1.92 week 22/ bet 10: richmond -40.5 bet: $50 odds: $1.92 bets placed 2:30pm sunday aest
Round 22 wrap: Another profitable week and that's now six in a row -a bit like the tigers run. Friday started terrible with a donation of $80 as Port demolished Carlton and regardless of what Malthouse's excuse was, Port wanted it more. The North Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood wins were profitable for me as two of the three multi's I had were winning tickets (In for $250 - out for $435.75). It was a tight affair in all three matches and on this occasion, I was on the right side of the ledger. The bet on the Cats (1-39) was looking great at half time (Cats up by 5 goals) and I was actually thinking of placing a small live bet on them winning by more than 40. I didn't do that, and just as well as Hawthorn went BANG x 10 and blew them away. The Freo game I was lucky in all fairness. I missed betting on the start and was a little dirty as the original line bet of 23 points would have been easily made. Instead I had a dip at half time ($50 line bet -64.5). At 3/4 time it looked like they wouldn't hit that, so I went again at the end of the 3rd quarter. It was the $75 line bet -48.5 which gave me a small profit and the escape. The Swans line bet worked for me but that was to counter the losing Richmond line bet I had. I had an 8 leg multi which had 2 legs fall over and I'll try and pick the card next week. So all in all, I had more losing bets than winning bets but I turned a profit for the week. Punters, I hope you had a win and if it's worth sharing - post it. Summary of week 22 & overall: Bets: 11 won 4 lost 7 Turnover for the round: $630 Winning Tickets: $672.75 Profit for the round: $42.75 Total bets: 173 Won 75 Lost 98 Loss for the year: $34.95 Turnover for the year: $9,957
Round 23 selections: An important week for a number of teams trying to make the eight and a number of teams managing their players for the first week of the finals. It will make for an interesting week of results and history will tell us that teams fighting for a position in the eight generally win and those teams locked in the eight, they have little to play for and do take it easy and generally lose. Be careful what you do with this information and good luck this week. We start off with the Collingwood vs Hawthorn game. If Collingwood had a full list of senior players, they would win this game. As a result of them missing a number of stars, I believe Hawthorn will win this one. The line is set at 49.5 and my selection will be Hawthorn HT/FT @ $1.19. I may even take the Pies with the 49.5 start. Carlton play Essendon on Saturday and I can smell an upset. Essendon have won the last 3 meetings including the earlier result this year. I still, am not too confident that the Bombers can kick a winning score and I will excuse Carlton from putting in a poor performance last week. The line is set at 17.5. I do like the Blues 1-39 @ $3.60 Fremantle take on Port Adelaide and that will be a cracker. The winner of this will get the double chance in the finals so both will come out all guns blazing. The line is set at 14.5 in Fremantle's favour. Fremantle for the 1-39 margin is $2.10. Undecided at this stage but the Freo 1-39 or the Port +14.5 will be my selection here. The last Saturday afternoon game has Sydney playing Richmond. The smart money will be on Sydney to win this @ $1.36. Richmond are playing for their 2014 lives and if you like the Tigers, the 1-39 margin @ $4.00 is tasty. The line is set at 21.5 for this game. For mine, my intitial selection will be Richmond at the line. Saturday night has North Melbourne playing Melbourne and the final siren can't come quick enough for Melbourne this year. North will win and win well. The line is set at 43.5 points and the Kangas should reach this by half time. My initial thoughts are North at the line. The other night game has Geelong playing Brisbane and Geelong will do enough to post a win here. The line here is at 36.5 and I think Geelong will get to their line. The Cats are short at $1.12 for the win, but if you think they are going to win, no price is too short. For the average punter looking for value, I would look at the line betting here. Along comes Sunday and hopefully the final eight has been decided. If not, the Gold Coast vs WCE game will be exciting. Gold Coast can finally win without Gary and they play a good brand of football at Metricon. WCE win and they are in. The bookies have WCE as favourite @ $1.40. Line betting here is 17.5 points and I do like Gold Coast at the line. Adelaide play St.Kilda and if by some chance Richmond and West Coast lose, the crowd at Adelaide oval might be reduced in numbers as they will have already started queuing for finals tickets. Adelaide are firm favourites for this game at $1.03. The line here is at 57.5 points. If this is a dead rubber, Adelaide will reach the line with ease. If this is a live rubber, Adelaide will manage their players well and they won't exert too much from their players and just play for the win. The last game of the round has the Bulldogs playing GWS. For mine this is a Bulldogs win. They are paying 41.29 for the win and the line is set at 24.5 points. My initial thoughts are the Bulldogs to reach their line. So there we have it. I am looking for a profitable result 7 weeks in a row and I hope to kick start things the right way tonight. Good luck to all the punters out there and my initial selection(s) is below. week 23/bet 1:Hawthorn -49.5 bet:$60 odds:$1.92 week 23/ bet 2: 9 leg multi Hawthorn -49.5 Carlton +17.5 Fremantle 1-39 Richmond +21.5 Kangas -43.5 Geelong -36.5 Gold Coast +17.5 Adelaide Bulldogs bet:$25 odds:$143.11 bets placed 2:54pm aest Friday
week 23/bet 3:hawthorn -29.5 bet:$165 odds:$1.88 bet placed live: scores were 14-2 Collingwood's favour
week 23/bet 6:geelong -39.5 bet:$30 odds:$1.92 week 23/bet 7:north melbourne -43.5 bet:$30 odds:$1.92 bets placed 6:18pm saturday aest
The final eight is set and there are now three dead rubbers. I will have a small interest and hoping two of three bets atleast get up. week 23/bet 8: gold coast +12.5 bet:$25 odds:$1.92 week 23/bet 9: adelaide -54.5 bet:$25 odds:$1.92 week 23/bet 10: western bulldogs -30.5 bet:$25 odds:$1.92 bets placed 1:11pm sunday aest
<table id='tblPostBody70286' width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0' align='left' border='0' style='margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; background: transparent;] <td align='left' valign='top' style='margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; text-align: left; width: 100%; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]Round 23 wrap: <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]It was another profitable week on the punt and that now makes it 7 weeks in a row that a profit has been made. As a result of the profit made this round, I am now, finally back in profit mode for the year. The fun doesn't stop here as I continue on to the finals to see if more money can be made. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;]It all started on Friday night where the Hawks put an end to Collingwood's season. Collingwood started well leading 14-2 and I thought my initial line bet of Hawks -49.5 was in a spot of bother. I then placed a live bet on this game and I took the Hawks at the new line of -29.5. Well after Hawthorn started poorly, they then clicked into gear and saluted by 65 points. Both line bets were successful, which set me up for the rest of the week. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;]On Saturday, Carlton and Essendon played out the first draw for the season. My line bet on Carlton was successful and for those that had margin betting, your a bit unlucky as the draw is part of that market. I found out two things in the dying stages of that game - Gibbs didn't have the power in his legs to kick it 50 metres but the funnier side of the Carlton players on the line trying to mark the ball as opposed to punching it through for a behind must have aggravated the Carlton supporters <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;]The Freo/Port games was good to me as the Freo 1-39 was paid. Freo did get out to a 38 point lead half way through the last but put the cue back in the rack and allowed Port to kick the last 5 majors. This I'm sure helped my bet and those that took Port at the line of +14.5. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;][span style='background-color: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]The Sydney vs Richmond game is what I was waiting for. As a supporter, I have to admit, I thought this is where the season was going to end. I decided not to place any bets before the start of the game and maybe tap into live betting. As the game started with Richmond getting to a 33-0 lead, I then decided to put the phone away and listen to the radio instead. Final siren and Richmond get home. For those that took the Tigers at the margin of 1-39 @ $4.00 - well done. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]The Cats winning by 62 points put more money in my pocket as my line bet on the Cats -39.5 saluted. This is also the game where I believe Selwood has just won the Brownlow by polling three votes. My line bet on the Kangas lost as North managed their players well to just post a comfortable 30 point win. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]I have to admit I was somewhat not interested in betting on the Sunday games as they were all dead rubbers. I had a small $25 interest in all three games with only one bet getting paid. I was on the wrong side of the ledger with my line betting on Gold Coast and the Bulldogs and I collected on the Adelaide line bet. The 9 leg multi I had failed as only 6 of the 9 legs were correct. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]For the 23 rounds of footy played this year I made a profit for 13 weeks and I had 10 weeks at a loss. For my betting season to date, I have had three substantial betting patches to get me to where I am today. Between rounds 3-6, I had a four week losing streak which burnt a hole in my pocket for the amount of $956. Rounds 14-16 did me no favours as three consecutive weeks of losses for $1,435 was no fun at all. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]The good news is that from round 17-23, I have had a profit every week which has put $2,122 back into my account. Like the Tigers run of success, I hope my punting follows their same streak. <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]So, I now look towards the finals series. Well done to all those that had a win on the punt this week and my summary is below: <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;] <p id='spBody' class='Forum_Normal' style='color: #000000; background: transparent;]Summary of week 23 & overall: Bets: 10 won 6 lost 4 Turnover for the round: $485 Winning Tickets: $734.50 Profit for the round: $249.50 Total bets: 183 Won 81 Lost 102 [/b]Profit for the year: $214.55[/b] <em style='background: transparent;]Turnover for the year: $10,442.00
Finals week 1: Welcome to the first week of the finals History has told us in the past that the favored team in the first week of the finals generally wins. Looking at the four games being played this weekend, there is no cut and dry, red hot favorite in any of the matches and it would not surprise me that the underdog in any of these matches win. We start off with the Friday night game between Hawthorn and Geelong. Current markets with Sportsbet has Hawthorn @ $1.50 and Geelong $2.65. The line is currently set @ 12.5. The Cats have won 3 of past 5 games against the Hawks. In finals games, the Hawks have won 5 of their past 6 against the Cats. I am selecting Geelong to win this. I believe the margin will be 23 points. I will place an initial bet on this game this afternoon and depending on the way the match is going, live betting may also come into play. Saturday afternoon and Sydney play Fremantle. The Swans are favourite @ $1.42 to the Dockers $2.95. The line is currently set @ 15.5. The Swans have won 3 of 5 past encounters. Fremantle's away from home finals record is 2-5. My money will be on the Swans. I do like the $1.42. My selection is Sydney by 29 points. Saturday night and North Melbourne take on Essendon. North Melbourne start favorites @ $1.70 and Essendon are $2.20. The line is @ 6.5. North Melbourne have won 3 of the past 5 encounters. This is a toss of the coin game. My selection will be North Melbourne by 17 points. Sunday we have Port Adelaide at home against Richmond. Port are favorites @ $1.45 and Richmond is $2.85. The line is currently @ 15.5. In their past 5 starts, Richmond has won three, including a draw. The last two times they have played Port at home, they have won. My selection will be Richmond at the line +15.5. If I had to pick a winner, it would be Richmond by 11 points. Good luck to all the punters out there and my selections are below. Finals week 1/ bet 1: Geelong win bet: $60 odds:$2.65 Finals week 1/bet 2: Sydney win bet:$100 odds: $1.42 Finals week 1/bet 3:North Melbourne win bet: $70 odds: $1.70 Finals week 1/ bet 4: Richmond +15.5 bet: $50 odds:$1.92 Finals week 1/bet 5: Richmond 1-39 bet: $20 odds: $3.40 bets placed 1:54pm Friday aest
Good Morning, I tried to log in a couple of times over the weekend to post more bets that I had on the weekend and the server was down. Just aswell, as I hit troubled waters with bets I didn't post. I will post now what bets I had in addition to what was already posted. Finals week 1/bet 6: Hawthorn/Geelong total game points under 168.5 bet:$120 odds:$1.88 bet placed at 3/4 time Finals week 1/bet 7: Sydney win 1-19 points bet: $90 odds: $2.30 bet placed half time Finals week 1/ bet 8: North Melbourne win bet: $120 odds: $1.71 bet placed 18:06 Saturday aest Finals week 1 / bet 9: Richmond +87.5 Bet:$100 odds:$1.88 bet placed 3/4 time I will post a summary of the week shortly
Finals week 1 wrap: <div> <div> History did tell me that the favoured teams win in the first week of the finals and I hope the punters jumped on board and made a solid collect. I, however, did not make a collect and my run of profit weeks has come to an end. I only tipped two favourites to win this week and the profit made on those teams winning was outweighed by losses on the underdog. It started on Friday night where the Hawks outplayed the Cats in the second half. I was hopeful that my Cats bet night get up but decided at 3/4 time to place a live bet on the total points scored in the game. The line was set at 168.5. I took a bet wanting scores to be less than 169 at final siren. This meant I wanted no more than 46 points to be scored in the last quarter. With 2 minutes to go, 3 goals were scored and my bet lost. Damn I love junk time football!. Saturday arrives and I'm $180 in the hole. The Swans win and I recover $42 on my win bet. During this tight close game, I decide to place a live bet on the Swans to win between 1-19 points. The odds were $2.35. There was a market for 1-24 points with the Swans at $1.96. I decided to be a little greedy and take 1-19. Well, the $90 invested there backfired. So I went from making $42 on this game to ending up losing $48. Saturday night and now I barrack for North. After making a loss on my first 2 games, I decided to top up on North. I placed an additional $120 on them to win to go along with the $70 I already had on them. I was unable to watch the game and when I saw the scores at half-time, I thought this is going to be one of those weeks (r14-16). I check scores early in the last and I see the Kangas back in it - atleast now I'm half a chance. In the end, the Kangas win and I profit $134 on the game and my losses now are reduced to $93.80. Sunday, and the game Richmond fans have been waiting for. What a disaster of a start! Can someone explain to me why the decision was made to kick against the 4 goal breeze when you win the toss? Away from home and supporters deafening. I thought if the Tigers held an early lead they might just keep the crowd noise to a minimum. It was not to be for Richmond supporters as Port destroyed them and the game was gone at half-time. I had to watch the train wreck and glad I did. At 3/4 time my $70 in bets was dead. I then saw the line at 87.5. I decided to have $100 on Richmond +87.5. Port took it very easy in the last, Richmond outscore them for the quarter and I actually made a profit on the game. Surprising as it sounds, I was actually happy to get away with a small loss for the week. If I didn't tamper with live betting this week, I would have lost only $39. It was the Hawks live bet losing that frustrated me the most. Any way, this week is over and I look forward to next week. As stated earlier, I hope the punters out there jumped all over the favourites this week and made a good collect. my summary is below. Summary of finals week 1 & overall: Bets: 9 won 4 lost 5 Turnover for the round: $730 Winning Tickets: $654.20 Loss for the round: $75.80 Total bets: 192 Won 85 Lost 107 Profit for the year: $138.75 Turnover for the year: $11,172.00