Anyone outside of top 500 by the end of round 6 probably has no hope, this year is a bit different though as alot of the top teams from the small sample I've looked at seem to be reliant on a fair few mid-pricers, when the cows come home to roost the gnr'ers could start making their charge.
Think people who are ranked 1000-5000 at end of Rnd 4 or 5 would really need to make big move & burn some trades & upgrade to premiums few weeks before everyone else.
I think as it's only round 3, I still have a chance to make it to a respectable finish on the leaderboard, top 500-1000? If the top 50k still have a chance now, I'd say that number halves each week from now on, Jmo! My first ever year of SC (Last year) I finished in the 40k's...and I didn't know much about the game especially trades! I had zero trades left from round 18 onwards so not a bad effort haha Ranked 11866 now so thats a marked improvement!
The byes will also play a fairly significant role this season, a smart bye strategy could net an extra few hundred points over those that haven't planned for it.
<blockquote>Quote from AngryAnt on April 16, 2012, 12:30 The byes will also play a fairly significant role this season, a smart bye strategy could net an extra few hundred points over those that haven't planned for it.</blockquote> I think you are spot on Angry. The bye rounds are going to be a period where you either set yourself up for a crack at winning, or you go down burning.
I'm fairly new at this but reckon have studied stats and strategy well enough to have a reasonable handle on it. @theclaud, I couldn't agree with you more, excellent points - <blockquote>Quote from theclaud on April 16, 2012, 11:31 Anything can happen from here on in. As long as team has a solid foundation and you build it up with the right trades, you would be suprised how much you can claw back.... ... Fierce trading - not stupid trading, but trading hard and early to people I thought reliable... ...and a lot of luck needed as well though. </blockquote> Fierce early trading is essential, look at Jay last year, he traded hard early to get into a strong position & then needed luck to hold off the stronger finishers. The strategy of miserly early trades & trade saving is only a good strategy for league wins where you need to hit 2 massive scores in the final 2 rounds. If you're ranked 300th, 3 weeks out & have trades in hand, you may storm home for a top 50 finish but there'll always be a few front runners who are trade depleted but will luck into dodging all the bullets in the run home & you won't catch all of them. SC will always be won by the Vo Rogue/Sunline types & League wins will always go to the Silky Sullivan types. Desperate times call for desperate measures, the further behind you are, the more risks you're forced to take, trying to get back into it, with massive luck needed, but a team with many risks will fall even further behind almost all the time. Take this weeks teams who surged into contention from nowhere, they'd be pretty unique teams without any of the early injured trio of Fyfe, Dempsey & Luenberger, as well as being without Pendlebury & the other popular underperformers of the round. Over 100,000 people would've taken big risks & it would've payed off for around 500 of them. @Fitzy, position 46k is too far away, over 900 points behind the leaders is giving them too much start, I'd be trade saving and plotting the strong finish league win from there. @VanderHaar, just inside the top 20k & about 600 points off the pace is about the furthest away you can be atm & still be a chance, a slim one, but technically possible. I'd agree that anything outside the top 20k now, is impossible. <blockquote>Quote from VanderHaar on April 16, 2012, 01:19 @hdons ......if the leader has fyfe dempsy and you have boughton shaw thats nearly 200 points in 1 week so never say die i guess </blockquote> In this scenario, you may gain 200 points on some of the front runners, but there'll always be front running bullet dodgers, rather than jump forwards & catch the leaders, the unlucky frontrunners would come back closer to your position instead. H_Dons! we're in same TS league Greg's doing well ranked 505th, no way you're too far behind, the race is long and 550 points off the pace is certainly long term bridgable. I only have 120 points on you, but 8793 positions on you, so there's a huge cluster of players in that bunch on very close scores. Dino's right. Dont be thinking that's out of reach, your team looks strong, if it performs to its potential + 2 perfect captain choices and dodging injuries, a bit of luck could see you in the top 1k in a fortnight. Very nice McAlmanac! to stay so close despite Dempsey, keep it up! Lucas I have to disagree, position 3712? you're ... what... about 440 off the pace? and we're only at round 3 & you have all your trades? Honestly, of those ranked ahead of you, there'd be only 50 or so who havent spent a trade, the top group are the top group now, because they made trades. Top 1% is awesome, lol you must hold yourself to very high standards. Think positive btw, that team hunting round 12 is still in the top 350, despite being rookie heavy and has 800k in hand, but 3 trades spent. It's smashing my team despite me putting in 100x more effort than her, lol SC at times can be a heartless bitch or a well of good fortune, luck or lack of, can make an incredible difference. @AA, "2700th and probably too far back" now you're just showing off lol & fully agree re. the bye rounds, we can expect a major leaders board shakeup after the dust settles.
Guys, I may be wrong but I think you are all over-reacting a little, its round 3, 20 round to go. I reckon everyone still has a chance at the moment, trade well and do well in the byes especially, then you have every chance, at the moment, most teams in the top 5k are mid price teams, some exceptions but as the season goes on teh guns and premiums will be better off. My opinion anyway, dont hate! lol
<blockquote>Quote from fidelsfinger on April 16, 2012, 16:01 Take this weeks teams who surged into contention from nowhere, they'd be pretty unique teams without any of the early injured trio of Fyfe, Dempsey & Luenberger, as well as being without Pendlebury & the other popular underperformers of the round. </blockquote> This week's leader has Dempsey (imagine is he didn't!) But I agree that anything can happen, it's a long year with many surprises to come.
Anything can happen but I would make a small wager with anyone who thinks they can win from a further back spot than mine at the moment.
Is it possible to see at the end, where the final top 10 were ranked now? If so, I'd wager that at least 2 of the final top 10 are currently ranked behind you.
I dont think I can, but I think someone who is in a higher position then you can, I feel I can from my position, I just dont have the wits
Yeah, at just under 20k my head says no, but my heart says trade and win the thing. I just can't give up. Even when I play real footy, the game is never over until the final siren for me. FWIW - 2010, Blue Thunders worst ranking was 3192 in round one inside the top 300 by round 3 then spent most of the season inside the top 100.
The interesting thing about the current leader's team is that he has a few of the lesser cash cows at the expense of some of the others that will appreciate more in value, specifically Townsend, C.Smith and T.Couch who hasn't played a game. No Clarke, Stanley, Greene, McDonald (longer term) or Mohr and some speculative mid-pricers in Dempsey, Waters, Malceski, Dangerfield, Sidebottom and Robinson that could still go either way. I think the gnr'ers will catch alot of the early pace setters, the ones that haven't selected Fyfe, Chapman, Martin or Broughton as their premiums.
Am sitting at 12 000 after scoring 2226 this week but reckon am too far behind....is it time, when I am already 500-600 points behind, to go for the league?
The current leader was already ranked top 10 last round & managed to dodge the injuries & under-performers the others couldnt evade, with the exception of Dempsey. I looked 12 deep & saw only 2 others with Dempsey, 2nd & 8th, shudder to think how far the top 2 would've streeted the field by if Dempsey fired.
@Tigersfor, you're still a rough possibility from there, give it another week or 2 before pulling the pin on overall.
@fidelsfinger Are you on top in total points for that TS league? I just saw it posted on this forum at the last minute so I joined haha I agree I really need to go hard these next two weeks to try and catch the leaders. And while in reality I won't win...its fun to try! Going to use MPP to get Goddard in for Fyfe, then get Pendlebury as soon as I have the coin (most likely downgrade a mooing mid into Miles from GWS once he's on the bubble...apparently will get named this week). Hale is also tracking nicely to become Cox in a few weeks too. Stranger things have happened!
@H_Dons I'm 2nd to Gregs Daisy Hill Miners in that league, on points, was a last minute join up myself. With MPP you have multiple options, was gonna run a few suggestions but gave up when couldn't narrow it down to under 20 lol. Goddard seems a safe bet & it'd be awesome if 2 of your rookies mature enough in the next 4 rounds to do a downgrade and an upgrade to pendleswhen he bottoms out.
Ohh I'm not in that league! I'm in 'TS 11:59!!!' Yeah I know this new MPP trade option really opens doors in terms of possibilities. I actually was meant to say Goddard in for Fyfe, OR Stanley...then if I chose the Stanley option I could straight swap a cow into Pendlebury in a few weeks, and also straight swap Hale into Cox before Bailey gets back. That being said, Hale needs to keep scoring and someone other than Magner (Who I don't want to ditch early) needs to start moo-ing fast. At the end of the day its just some skill but a lot of luck!