Initial team when taking byes into account

Discussion in 'AFL' started by traviso, Mar 9, 2012.

  1. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    An 8-10-12 bye set up is the only way to avoid donuts, if you're willing to burn max trades.
    Personally, in my main league, i'll keep tabs on opponents preparedness for the bye rounds & try to keep a step ahead.
    On an interesting note, friend (who's not serious enough) asked to recommend them a starting lineup, suggested targeting round 13 from the start, so am sending them a list of my top picks excluding anyone from the 6 teams with the bye that round.

     
  2. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    fidelsfinger could you please explain how a 8-10-12 setup can avoid all donuts? Won't you get at least one donut in round 13? The only way I can see you actually avoid donuts completely is to utilize MPP.



     
  3. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    Utilising MPP is part of it,
    the only way I can see it being possible to get through donut free is -
    8-10-12, with the 8 for round 11 taking up the 8 on bench,
    the 3 trades prior to round 12, moves the ratio to 11-8-11, with the 8 benched.
    then next 3 trades leaves 11-11-8.
    Probably not a good idea though,
    too many sacrifices need to be made to maintain the right balance for each position, even with utilising MPP,
    it'd be at the cost of having to leave out half my chosen players.
    I wont be doing it, just noting that it is possible.


     
  4. @ Fidelsfinger

    In theory it works but if you actually map out the players and trades it is impossible without Ruck MPP, as with eight bench slots if you have a playing emergency you WILL get a donut on another round without it
     
  5. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    as BB said, when you actually try it with players 8-10-12 (or 8-11-11 for that matter) will still create donuts.

    If you put 8 on the bench in round 11, you must have 2 rucks with the rnd 11 bye that you are benching. If so, then for each of rnds 12 and 13 you can only have 1 ruck benched with a bye. This means only 7 bye players can really be benched in those rounds. So you are left with 7 bench spots for the 10 and 12 bye players respectively over rounds 12 and 13. And six trades isn't enough to cover the 8 extra byes. You are left with 2 donuts.

    I haven't tried it, but having a fwd/ruc MMP link may relieve that pressure by letting you bench a forward on your ruck bench.
     
  6. Oodles

    Oodles New Member

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    There's some nice mathematical minds at work there! Well worked out.
     
  7. Lucas

    Lucas Moderator Staff Member

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    Back to Lycett again. It all comes back to Lycett.
     
  8. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    lucas i thought it was either
    => OPTION 1 - 2 d/r + 2d/r = james sellar & jay lever (as d/r's) + 2 from scott lycett, joel Hamling, 1 f/r with rd 13 bye
    OR
    => OPTION 2 - 3 f/r = scott lycett & joel Hamling + f/r with rd 13 bye

    so assuming none have picked up LTIs a NO LYCETT approach including sellar, lever, hamling and Rd 13 player X would work in theory - would be quite long odds though!!

     
  9. Yes TTH but relying on Lycett covering, which is a massive long-shot, is a lot more plausible than relying on all of Sellar, Lever and Hamling playing when needed and scoring enough to make up for all the points lost/trades wasted to do it. Odds on that are happening are off the charts
     
  10. fidelsfinger

    fidelsfinger New Member

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    You're right BB,
    at first thought it seemed possible,
    but after going through it properly 1 donut is the best that can be done.
     
  11. Yeah it sucks, especially cause it seems possible until you try it
     
  12. patash

    patash New Member

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    goddard,lids,heater,scotland,suckling,lake,ellis(darley,morris) ablett,watson,griffen,clifton,mcdonald,neale(magner,miles) mumford,giles(redden,orrenson) franklin,fyfe,martin,zaha,dangerfield,porps,saad(cameron,hall) just looking for feedback and any recomendations cheers
     
  13. There's an RMT thread in the forums section patash, try posting your team in one of the threads there for comments
     
  14. patash

    patash New Member

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    sorry mate will do my mistake!!
     
  15. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    for those of you that like things visual impromptu has an artcile WITH DIAGRAMS on bye plannign on his blog

    http://www.supercoachscores.com/2012/03/two-donuts-please/

    i think it is worth adding that your rd 12 trades can be rd12/13 byes into rd 11 byes and that rd 13 trades can be to rd13 byes into rd11/12 byes - so while 8/11/11 at first appears to be the ideal post Round 10 bye strcuture there really is no differnce to 8/10/12 or 8/9/13 or 8/8/14
     
  16. AngryAnt

    AngryAnt New Member

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    Nothing particularly groundbreaking in that article, simple logic really.
     
  17. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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  18. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    We know that most people are looking at 2 donuts during the byes at a minimum and I was under the belief that you could minimize the points being lost by trying to make these 2 donuts come from rookie players as opposed to premium players but I've done a bit of analysis and it does not seem to make a difference.

    Consider the following two defences (assuming all premiums score the same and all rookies score the same):

    Team A: shaw (r12 bye), heppell (r12), goddard (r13), scotland (r13), deledio (r13), lake (r11), bugg (r11 bye), smedts (r12), ellis (r13)

    Team B: shaw (r12 bye), heppell (r12), goddard (r13, waters (r11), deledio (r13), lake (r11), morris (r13), smedts (r12), ellis (r13)

    (Assume both teams up upgrade Smedts after r11 and Ellis after r12 to avoid their byes)

    I thought Team B would score more over the bye rounds because instead of having 3 round 13 premiums, it only has 2 and instead it has an extra premium in round 11. In round 13 Team A would lose Goddard, Deledio and Scotland whereas Team B would lose Goddard, Deledio and Morris so Team B is taking less of a hit.

    However what I didn't notice is that Team A is better off in round 11. It loses Lake and Bugg whereas Team B loses Lake and Waters and will take a bigger hit. The teams should score the same total over all 3 rounds.

    So it seems having 3 premiums with the same bye in a line is no worse than having them spread out over the byes. This might change my strategy. I had been resisting any '3rd premiums' and trying to spread my byes out.
     
  19. SuperCoachSuperStar

    SuperCoachSuperStar New Member

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    I've got 4 premiums with the same bye (Round 13) in both the forward and back lines, it will work out to 2 donuts.
     

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