Loophole Fixture Analysis

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Feb 10, 2016.

By Jason on Feb 10, 2016 at 2:37 PM
  1. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    For those who take the selection of their fantasy football team seriously, you're probably already aware how the loophole works. For those who don't there is a refresher at the bottom of this article. The loophole principle can be applied to the selection of your VC each week, but can also be applied to the selection of emergencies.

    For the loophole to work, you need a non-active player. For maximum flexibility, the non-active player is preferably from a team which is playing in a late timeslot during a given round.

    Analysing the Fixture

    To assess which teams have more favourable fixtures in terms of providing a loophole target, I analysed the fixture in terms of when each team played each round. The first timeslot of the round was allocated a score of 1 and the second timeslot was allocated a 2, etc. Where timeslots differed by less than an hour, I considered them to be the same. The results are shown in the table below:

    Fixture Analysis 1.JPG

    Round 23 has a floating fixture until a few weeks prior, hence has been left out at this time. The bye rounds (R13-R15) have been included for completeness, however any player from a team with a bye can be used for a loophole - meaning that every team should have more than enough options to choose from during these rounds.

    Further Analysing the Fixture

    Drilling into the details a bit further, I took a look at how each team compared over the first four rounds, the first eight rounds, the first 12 rounds (i.e. before the byes) and over the entire season. The results are shown below:

    Fixture Analysis 2.JPG

    Over the first four rounds, Geelong and Hawthorn present the best value for a loophole option, closely followed by Brisbane and Fremantle, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Richmond and to a lesser extent Essendon are terrible, due to the early timeslots that these teams play early in the season. Adelaide and Collingwood are not much better.

    Looking a little further ahead to cover the first 8 rounds however, the picture changes. Brisbane is well clear on top of the list with the best value for a loophole option, whilst Adelaide and Richmond provide the worst overall value during the first 8 rounds.

    The picture again changes if the first 12 rounds are considered, with West Coast, Collingwood and St Kilda rising to the top of the value ladder and Hawthorn assuming last place for loophole value.

    Clearly the interpretation of "loophole value" is dependent on how far across the season is under consideration.

    Cheap ruck options for R3

    Some interesting conclusions can be drawn from the analysis, particularly regarding the player selected at R3 for your team. Given that in 2015, there were hardly any cheap ruck players who played a game - many teams focused their R3 selection on their value as a loophole option.

    If you are considering an R3 selection primarily based on their loophole value, I'd suggest that the first four rounds are most important. Any further into the season and most teams begin to have other non-active players on their bench due to rookies being dropped or injuries/suspensions etc. R3 selection based on loophole value could perhaps consider the first 8 rounds, at a stretch.

    Let's look at the options for a cheap F/R player to be selected as an R3. The $102k options are Loersch (GC), Chol (Rich) and Wyatt (Coll).

    Over the first four rounds, none of these players are particularly valuable as a loophole target, with their teams ranking 12th, 15th and 18th respectively. But if you wanted to split these guys, Loersch is certainly better value than Wyatt, who is better value than Chol, who is terrible value, playing in the first timeslot of R1, R2 and R4.

    Over the first eight rounds however, there is better separation between these three F/R cheapies. Wyatt is clearly much better across the first eight rounds (with his team ranked 4th) compared to Loersch (15th) and Chol (17th). Wyatt is also the best choice from these guys if the first 12 rounds (up to the byes) are considered.

    There are of course other cheap ruck options of the three players that I have looked at in detail above. Personally I am interested in an R3 who has F/R because I am also interested in selecting an F4 who has F/R status.

    For those who aren't attempting to open a DPP link, I'd recommend Goetz (WB) as the best cheap option for R3 for providing loophole value over the first four rounds. Across the first eight or twelve rounds, Wyatt is the overall better value from the $102k rucks. However, it is important to note that Wyatt plays in the first timeslot of Round 2 and thus provides no loophole option during this round.

    Who will you be selecting as your R3 this year?

    Will it be based on their loophole value, and if so what is your criteria for determining who presents the best loophole value?

    How the loophole works

    As promised this section of the article is a walkthrough on how to use the loophole.

    Step 1. Choose a player from an early timeslot and make them your VC.
    Step 2. Choose another player from a later timeslot and make them your C.

    If your VC scores poorly, simply stick with your C selection. This means that you won't be making use of the loophole during this round. If your VC scores well and you can use the loophole, proceed to Step 3.

    Step 3. Identify a non-active player from a team which has not yet commenced their timeslot.
    Step 4. Move the non-active player identified in Step 3 onto the field and make them your C.
    Step 5. Remember to select an emergency on the same line as your now non-active C.

    When your non-active player's team finishes their match for the round, your C score will be registered as a zero and your VC score will be doubled.

    All of the above assumes of course that you have access to your team selection across the weekend, to make changes to the onfield set up as required.

    It is also possible to use the loophole on one or more of your emergencies each round, in addition to the VC loophole.

    Good luck and happy loopholing!
     
    • Like Like x 6
?

Who will you select at R3 in SuperCoach for 2016?

  1. D.Wyatt (Coll)

    14 vote(s)
    43.8%
  2. M.Chol (Rich)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. C.Loersch (GC)

    4 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. L.Goetz (WB)

    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
  5. K.Galloway (Syd)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. M.Korcheck (Carl)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. T.Read (Geel)

    1 vote(s)
    3.1%
  8. M.Cox (Coll)

    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
  9. Other (please specify in comments)

    1 vote(s)
    3.1%

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Feb 10, 2016.

  • Tags:
    1. walesy
      walesy
      I've always been a fan of the loopman being available from rounds 1-8, cause I always feel, after then, you've generally got a donut somewhere in the team that you can leverage, as such, Goetz is mah boy.

      That said, the idea that Grimley might be getting games early with Leuen would throw that plan under the bus.
    2. Len
      Len
      Great stuff Jason, many thanks.

      I had Cox, will now switch to Wyatt :)
    3. Jason
      Jason
      As at 10 February 2016, the 20 most popular rucks under $200k were (% of all teams):

      1. Cox (Coll) (13.6%)
      2. Currie (GC) (8.6%)
      3. Wyatt (Coll) (8.5%)
      4. Grimley (Ess) (8.1%)
      5. West (Bris) (4.5%)
      6. Loersch (GC) (4.1%)
      7. McKay (Carl) (3.8%)
      8. Nyuon (Ess) (3.3%)
      9. Max King (Melb) (3.1%)
      10. Lowden (Adel) (3%)
      11. Derickx (Syd) (2.9%)
      12. Chol (Rich) (2.8%)
      13. Naismith (Syd) (2.5%)
      14. Mitch King (Melb) (1.8%)
      15. Korcheck (Carl) (1.2%)
      16. Read (Geel) (1%)
      17. Frampton (Port) (0.8%)
      18. Goetz (WB) (0.8%)
      19. O'Brien (Adel) (0.8%)
      20. Galloway (Syd) (0.4%)

      I will be interested in how these numbers change over the rest of the pre-season.
    4. Penske file
      Penske file
      why not cox and wyatt (f/r)?
    5. Jason
      Jason
      How many R3 slots do you have? I only have one.
    6. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Grimley is super high ownership for someone who has only just been added to the playing list, I would assume he will move to #1 until other "likely to play" options are identified or named for Round 1.
      • Like Like x 1
    7. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      for me this isn't really that much of a concern, sure it may be frustrating that week but it means he is even better value across the other 11 weeks out of the first 12 than the tables might suggest

      in some years I have had at least one donut in week 2 due to rookies being dropped (or injured) after 1 game so other options may loom - otherwise I would just back myself to nail the Captain's choice
    8. Jason
      Jason
      Fair enough. In the longer run to the byes, if you can handle the round 2 "blip", Collingwood have one of the better fixtures for loophole value.

      Personally, I would probably be making a correction trade if one of my rookies disappeared that quickly however, so as to not miss out on some other cash cow that many others were onto. Hence for me, R2 no-show poses a bigger issue.
    9. Penske file
      Penske file
      Jason, cox R3, wyatt F7/8
    10. Penske file
      Penske file
      Urelated question. What becomes of top up players if bombers appeal successful?
    11. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      my understanding is that an appeal would be heard late in 2016, perhaps after the 2016 season and would be pursued to "clear their names"

      if the appeal happens earlier for some reason and the bans are overturned then presumably the topups would be ineligible to play from that point of the season, much like when a rookie who is "temporarily" elevated during the season as an injury replacement and returns to the rookie list later on when the player they replaced returns from injury
    12. stripey
      stripey
      My plan at this stage is to put Tippet in the forward line (F/R) which will give me the backup ruckman should it be needed. Also, Tippett's number in the second half of the season were excellent (too lazy to look at exact numbers) but i see him continuing to play a significant amount of time in the ruck given Sinclair is now the number 1 ruckman. As such I see upside in his numbers and having him in the initial team saves a trade when a ruckman goes down.

      The other thing to point out in relation to Wyatt is that in Round 3 he plays in the second timeslot of the weekend meaning that unless you have a potential captain out of Port or Essendon the loophole isnt going to work for you (this assumes of course all other players are still getting picked.... unlikely).
      • Like Like x 1
    13. Jason
      Jason
      Your bench spots are there to make you money via cash cows who get early games. I don't see either Cox or Wyatt as doing that. I'm not missing out on cash cows to set up a pair of :donut:s that I can rotate between my RUC and FWD lines.

      There may turn out to be a cheap ruck who is named for round 1. In which case, loopholes be damned, I would rather get some extra value wherever I can, so they would become my R3. Only in the absence of a playing R3 option at round 1, will I be choosing a player for loophole value.
      • Like Like x 2
    14. stripey
      stripey
      I agree Jason, I wouldn't be doing it specifically to set up a loophole but i will definitely be setting up my insurance policy with the DPP. Hopefully a rookie R/F ruckman gets picked Round 1, but i would have to think long and hard about a rookie ruck (non DPP) picked in round 1. I just don't think the rookie rucks generate that much cash generally anyway (happy to be proven wrong on this one) which doesnt really make the trade worth it.
    15. walesy
      walesy
      I'm on my phone so can't look it up, but most years there's at least one rookie ruck that makes bank.
    16. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard
      As far as RUC/FWD guys go that can use as loophole agent for the full season I would think one of the M Kings that are just oer 100K for Melbourne is the way to go. Especially if you are playing a FWD/RUC in forward line too.

      When I use a loophole agent and one of them was King last season, I look for guys that have their team play on Saturday night to Sunday games. Melbourne play 12 times as the club in last 3 games of round for the season. More than any other club I believe so one of the two Kings for Dees is ideal full season loophole agent for FWD/RUC. Just research which of those two King's is less likely to play and pick him as they are both the same price. I tend to use this guy mostly for captain loophole.

      I love to have a DEF/MID loophole too if I can find a decent one each year.
      In 2014 I used Jay Hunt of Dees and last year Corey Adamson of Eagles.
      It allows you to loophole most weeks via the 6 spots in defence or 8 spots in midfield. Pretty handy option.
      The only downside is you give up a spot in your 30 as a cash cow to be used as a loophole agent.
      This maybe more risky in 2016 as I think it is harder to find an ideal DEF/MID as previous two years and also with the sub gone in AFL I think we will tend to get more cash value from our rookies that play as the vests no longer exist to restrict their ground time. So picking a loophole agent over a cash cow needs to be decided the worth of it to your own judgement on your overall supercoach game plan for 2016 season.
      I will decide which way I go on this in later March when I know cash cow options properly and rookies likely to play round one.
    17. Owen
      Owen
      I tend to trade in a loop hole def/mid later in the year when the team is nearly complete and I'm chasing money for the last few upgrades, that way you don't lose out on cash generation.
      • Like Like x 1
    18. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard

      Yep, that is a great idea too.
      I think I did that with a FWD/MID late last year too, Think it was Brenton Payne of St.Kilda from memory.
      Also had an each way bet at start of season with Hugh Goddard last year.
      I took him as DEF/FWD to use either as cash cow or loophole agent.
      For most of first half of season he was loophole agent before Saints finally let him play.
      By that stage though, the cash earned is not a helpful as prefer to upgrade my team as early as possible
    19. chelsea01
      chelsea01
      At the moment I am looking at using S. Jacobs (ADE) as one of my rucks and L. Lowden (ADE) on the bench. Lowden is only one injury away from getting games and that would be to replace Jacobs. I can't see them both playing together so it seems a good safety net as well as a loophole option. Also I will have K. Tippett at F4 to interchange with Lowden who is an R/F.
      • Like Like x 2

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