Loophole Fixture Analysis

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Feb 10, 2016.

By Jason on Feb 10, 2016 at 2:37 PM
  1. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    For those who take the selection of their fantasy football team seriously, you're probably already aware how the loophole works. For those who don't there is a refresher at the bottom of this article. The loophole principle can be applied to the selection of your VC each week, but can also be applied to the selection of emergencies.

    For the loophole to work, you need a non-active player. For maximum flexibility, the non-active player is preferably from a team which is playing in a late timeslot during a given round.

    Analysing the Fixture

    To assess which teams have more favourable fixtures in terms of providing a loophole target, I analysed the fixture in terms of when each team played each round. The first timeslot of the round was allocated a score of 1 and the second timeslot was allocated a 2, etc. Where timeslots differed by less than an hour, I considered them to be the same. The results are shown in the table below:

    Fixture Analysis 1.JPG

    Round 23 has a floating fixture until a few weeks prior, hence has been left out at this time. The bye rounds (R13-R15) have been included for completeness, however any player from a team with a bye can be used for a loophole - meaning that every team should have more than enough options to choose from during these rounds.

    Further Analysing the Fixture

    Drilling into the details a bit further, I took a look at how each team compared over the first four rounds, the first eight rounds, the first 12 rounds (i.e. before the byes) and over the entire season. The results are shown below:

    Fixture Analysis 2.JPG

    Over the first four rounds, Geelong and Hawthorn present the best value for a loophole option, closely followed by Brisbane and Fremantle, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Richmond and to a lesser extent Essendon are terrible, due to the early timeslots that these teams play early in the season. Adelaide and Collingwood are not much better.

    Looking a little further ahead to cover the first 8 rounds however, the picture changes. Brisbane is well clear on top of the list with the best value for a loophole option, whilst Adelaide and Richmond provide the worst overall value during the first 8 rounds.

    The picture again changes if the first 12 rounds are considered, with West Coast, Collingwood and St Kilda rising to the top of the value ladder and Hawthorn assuming last place for loophole value.

    Clearly the interpretation of "loophole value" is dependent on how far across the season is under consideration.

    Cheap ruck options for R3

    Some interesting conclusions can be drawn from the analysis, particularly regarding the player selected at R3 for your team. Given that in 2015, there were hardly any cheap ruck players who played a game - many teams focused their R3 selection on their value as a loophole option.

    If you are considering an R3 selection primarily based on their loophole value, I'd suggest that the first four rounds are most important. Any further into the season and most teams begin to have other non-active players on their bench due to rookies being dropped or injuries/suspensions etc. R3 selection based on loophole value could perhaps consider the first 8 rounds, at a stretch.

    Let's look at the options for a cheap F/R player to be selected as an R3. The $102k options are Loersch (GC), Chol (Rich) and Wyatt (Coll).

    Over the first four rounds, none of these players are particularly valuable as a loophole target, with their teams ranking 12th, 15th and 18th respectively. But if you wanted to split these guys, Loersch is certainly better value than Wyatt, who is better value than Chol, who is terrible value, playing in the first timeslot of R1, R2 and R4.

    Over the first eight rounds however, there is better separation between these three F/R cheapies. Wyatt is clearly much better across the first eight rounds (with his team ranked 4th) compared to Loersch (15th) and Chol (17th). Wyatt is also the best choice from these guys if the first 12 rounds (up to the byes) are considered.

    There are of course other cheap ruck options of the three players that I have looked at in detail above. Personally I am interested in an R3 who has F/R because I am also interested in selecting an F4 who has F/R status.

    For those who aren't attempting to open a DPP link, I'd recommend Goetz (WB) as the best cheap option for R3 for providing loophole value over the first four rounds. Across the first eight or twelve rounds, Wyatt is the overall better value from the $102k rucks. However, it is important to note that Wyatt plays in the first timeslot of Round 2 and thus provides no loophole option during this round.

    Who will you be selecting as your R3 this year?

    Will it be based on their loophole value, and if so what is your criteria for determining who presents the best loophole value?

    How the loophole works

    As promised this section of the article is a walkthrough on how to use the loophole.

    Step 1. Choose a player from an early timeslot and make them your VC.
    Step 2. Choose another player from a later timeslot and make them your C.

    If your VC scores poorly, simply stick with your C selection. This means that you won't be making use of the loophole during this round. If your VC scores well and you can use the loophole, proceed to Step 3.

    Step 3. Identify a non-active player from a team which has not yet commenced their timeslot.
    Step 4. Move the non-active player identified in Step 3 onto the field and make them your C.
    Step 5. Remember to select an emergency on the same line as your now non-active C.

    When your non-active player's team finishes their match for the round, your C score will be registered as a zero and your VC score will be doubled.

    All of the above assumes of course that you have access to your team selection across the weekend, to make changes to the onfield set up as required.

    It is also possible to use the loophole on one or more of your emergencies each round, in addition to the VC loophole.

    Good luck and happy loopholing!
     
    • Like Like x 6
?

Who will you select at R3 in SuperCoach for 2016?

  1. D.Wyatt (Coll)

    14 vote(s)
    43.8%
  2. M.Chol (Rich)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. C.Loersch (GC)

    4 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. L.Goetz (WB)

    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
  5. K.Galloway (Syd)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. M.Korcheck (Carl)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. T.Read (Geel)

    1 vote(s)
    3.1%
  8. M.Cox (Coll)

    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
  9. Other (please specify in comments)

    1 vote(s)
    3.1%

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Jason, Feb 10, 2016.

  • Tags:
    1. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      hey mate, noticed this post

      plenty of people got burnt by picking TBC last year as an insurance policy, my advice would be to only pick Tippett if you reckon you would pick him if he was F only as you might end up compromising your team
      • Like Like x 4
    2. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard
      Not much loophole action in terms of Lowden.
      Crows only play 5 times on Sunday from what I can see. This means few chances when he is not playing to use as a loophole agent. It is quite limited in opportunity for that role in the 30.
      • Like Like x 1
    3. stripey
      stripey
      TTH, I was one of the very few who got burnt with Scott Lycett.... a far worse insurance policy than even TBC!!

      On Tippett, he averaged 106 after round 11 last year and although Buddy is returning I actually see Tippett continuing to spending more time in the rucks due to Sinclair not being the dominant sole ruckman that Pyke was. He's priced at a 90 average. I am definitely not saying I have locked him in at this stage but I am interested.
    4. Jason
      Jason
      I have Tippett in my team at F4 currently for exactly this reason. Reckon he can improve on a 90 starting average by a decent amount, given his late 2015 form. Hard to see him lose on the start price. Worst case he ends up being the last forward who needs to be upgraded.
      • Like Like x 2
    5. Micksdemons
      Micksdemons
      Same - I'd prefer if my r3 got a game as there is always someone injured dropped or just not playing that week that you can use - having said that out Cox in Wyatt
      • Like Like x 1
    6. Willys Guns0402
      Willys Guns0402
      Feel the loophole is irrelevant at the start as it is better to have all players generating cash
    7. Jason
      Jason
      That's great if there is a cheap ruck who is going to play early. Do you already know who that is? Please share if you do.

      Otherwise, the loophole will indeed by relevant because we will all have an R3 player who isn't playing in the early rounds.
    8. Owen
      Owen
      Grimley?
    9. Jason
      Jason
      Starts from behind Jamar and McKernan in the pecking order, surely?
    10. Owen
      Owen
      I thought he was going to play as a forward?
      • Like Like x 1
    11. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard
      It is always an interesting one to weigh up.
      Can certainly understand that view but also loved the loophole agent options that I used at various times in last two seasons.

      Exactly why a lot of us have used a rookie ruck for such a role because many were not generating cash in any case.

      I don't know Grimley price but on pure football terms for Essendon I would have thought Grimley is playing before Jamar and Jamar is essentially part time ruck coach and I suspect would only play if Leunberger , McKernan or Grimley were not playing. I sensed this was why Essendon signed him up as insurance but Grimley is more signed up to help both up forward and in ruck.If Leunberger does not play I suspect Grimley and McKernan team up for most of the year as the ruck division for Essendon in 2016. I reckon Jamar only plays if 2 of the other 3 are sidelined and given the uncertainty on Leunberger asking their part time ruck coach to make himself available should they need him seemed a wise choice. Hudson did that at Collingwood and Brogan did that at GWS.
      • Like Like x 1
    12. walesy
      walesy
      Yeah, Jamar, was a fair way behind the 8 ball in terms of raising his fitness base.

      Grimely should be getting gametime in the absence of Leuen.
    13. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      worst case is actually if he gets injured (likely)
    14. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      Grimley's the key ($123k). I have him at R3 (and no forward DPP cover). but what if he actually does play the first ten games and averages 55-70? Mid-season sell? he cant really be kept as 'security' for game cover for my R1+R2. But what if later I trade in a forward link..? Then he can slip to the forwards occasionally. I see this working (hence just keeping him all yr, hence who cares how his price appreciates). Thoughts?
    15. Jason
      Jason
      I expect that at least one cheap ruck will debut over the course of the season, especially now that the sub rule is gone. They won't necessarily provide reliable cover, but it something is better than nothing.
    16. Jason
      Jason
      Your call of likely is subjective and I don't have the same view.

      Tippett's first 5 seasons were all solid playing almost all games. His next two seasons (13, 14) got off to bad starts missing all of the opening rounds. But then in 2015 he managed to play essentially a full season again.
      • Like Like x 1
    17. chelsea01
      chelsea01
      With the demise of the sub vest ruckmen will be required to spend more time on the ground (mostly in the forward line while resting).
      Tippett is a proven performer as a forward which you cannot say for some of the alternatives.
    18. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      So what are people going with, Currie/Grimley v Loophole?
    19. Owen
      Owen
      I still don't know! Probably a Grimley selection seeing as he might make 100K-150K
    20. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      He's so shit though. I could see him scoring 30's and Bombers rushing a one-legged Leuey back asap.

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