@tylo as Jason said a 113k rookie theoretically has an average of about 20. All the rookie would have to do is average >50 to generate as much money as Bate (if you believe Bate will increase by 30ppg), with a third the initial outlay. I just can’t justify getting him at this stage. That is true Terry – for example if a 113k rookie scores a 50 in each round 1 and 2. His breakeven for round 3 would be around -40 meaning he would need to score a -40 to maintain his current average of 20ppg over a 3 round span and maintain his 113k price tag. Anything greater that -40 would obviously see a price rise.
Gotta be a reason why he didn't get a run under Bails. I dunno maybe it's the red hair and seeing too many hacks coming from Brisbane since Voss tried to get them all up there.
@NTS I get what your saying and its the old argument of why gnr is the safer way to go. Personally I've always been an advocate of having a handful of midpricers. This is another way to look at it(there are few assumptions in this): 2 x Bate = 170ppg gun(110) + rookie(60) = 170ppg but the combined price increase of the midpricers will be higher than the rookie Obviously picking the right midpricers is the hard part but I think it works if you do. I think Bate could be 1 but theres still a way to go.
Very hard to see the combined price increase of the mid pricers to be higher than a rookie Tylo. Most rookies start costed at about 20-30ppg. Almost all of the decent ones tend to average 65 points. With a guy like Bate to be more value than the average rookie (who let's just say appreciates 30 points), he will probably need to average somewhere around the 90 ppg. For those who pick midpricers, they pretty much have to improve to be keepers, or at least to be top 10 mids/def/fwd/rucks during the period of time that you have them.
'Combined' price increase, not Bate on his own. 2 players that increase from 55 to 85 will make more money than 1 that increases from 20 to 65 and a premium that holds value. Thats why if you look at the best possible starting teams from past seasons with the benefit of hindsight, you would find them loaded with midpriced players.
@tylo - problem with your reasoning (2 midpricers 'out earn' a g+r combo) 1. you have a gun already in the g'n'r approach, so no need to upgrade one of them, so 2. you have to burn 3 (possibly 4) trades to turn the 2 midpricers into 2 guns *unless your midpricer turns into a premium, then epic win*. down/up-ing 2 65pt rookies to gun+rookie is a more "trade efficient" way to get the gun so, g+r = two trades to get two guns (coz you already have one). mp+mp = three or more trades to get two guns (unless you find Fyfe mk2)