KPF vs Onballers Who would you go? KPF tend to be massive scorers and this can also occur early in a season setting you up for a good position. But they also have the fluctations, and with a few mid60s they become cheap options. Onballers just get the job done. Didak is a good example in 2010 of a scorer who kept between 80 and 120 most games. I've thought start with onballers and bring in KPF but it's a big risk not taking any of JB, N or J Riewoldt, Pavlich, Pods or Cloke. Onballer options would be Chapman, Didak, Harvey, Rioli, Thomas(?), Goodes, Gia, Stevie J and the consistently inconsistent (for an onballer) ROK
JB & NR bolted from the blocks last year, but my gut feel is that has been against the trend as KPF's take a few weeks to warm up (gut feel). I havent looked at the stats to confirm this. Anyone? That said, I cant go past NR.
I've got Riewoldt, Franklin, Pavlich, O'Keefe, Stanley, Petrie & Krakouer at the moment. Riewoldt & Pavlich are usually pretty consistent, as they lead up at the ball more and don't get stuck at FF. Franklin goes hot and cold, might put Didak in for him and make him an upgrade target.
The main problem with KPF's, is that, as the name suggests, they play predominantly forward, and consequently do not attain the crucial MPP that will be very important this season (Pav and Goodes aside). However, I wonder whether the new rule changes may mean bigger points for the big guys, as they are accustomed to not being benched... and as they say, as the game slows down with players tiring.. big guys stay big. Assuming Fev is gone for the year, decade,.. who will fill in that forward gap at Brisbane... surely Brown won't play further forward. Has Brown ever played without a full forward?, he's always had Bradshaw or Fev... I wonder if this will effect his scoring.
I'm looking at onballers initially. There should be opprtunities to pick up KPF during the year and I don't mind pricing/timing dictating which of the big guys I get. One thing I'll say - I bucked the trend last year and took Chappy, one of the few wins I had in my forward line. I'm taking the plunge again. His consistency and determination should see him thrive in a team that could easily be top four. Don't make the mistake of writing him off without due consideration. He was almost as far ahead of the other forwards as Sandilands was of the rucks.
Hey Lucas - can I get your thoughts on Fasolo? His WAFL scores are very impressive, and some of the depth has gone from the forward line with Medhurst and Lockyer moving on. Is he a chance to get games off his own boot, or will he require an injury or two to have a shot at it?
I like the thought that Fasolo would get a shot...but not at all confident. Collingwood forwards will be largely excess midfielders like Beams/Sidebottom/Wellingham. Add Krakouer and Tarrant to the mix, and Brad Dick and Leon Davis didn't play in the GF replay and you have a very strong list of forwards who can get in there. That more than anything is the reason Medhurst and Lockyer gave it away at the end of the season. If there was a few young forward-mid types to get a run at Collingwood in 2011, it would be Luke Rounds (close decision between him and Blair midway through 2010), and John McCarthy is internally highly rated, though I think more than likely a delisting will occur in the next 24 months for him. With one year left, there's no way Mick Malthouse is going to muck around with developing players. He is simply put going to do everything possible to win the flag and get his tally up to 4 equal with all the legends: Reynolds, Jeans, Barassi, Hafey, Parkin and Sheedy.
Chapman, Riewoldt & Rioli are my locks. From there I will see how the gun/rookie balance fairs for the different positions. Last year I made the mistake of having two smokey forwards in Tippett and Gray which bombed big time.
Chappy, Riewoldt, Franklin, Goodes, Gamble, Petrie and Krakouer is my forward line. 2 injury risks in Chappy and Petrie but hopefully my 3 bench players will provide adequate cover. Am also of the belief that the buy rounds will help players like chappy/ sandilands get there much needed rests.
@tylo Problem with Jurrah is that he doesn't get enough possies, or kick enough goals. I would think Watts would be their main target anyway. Also Jurrah will be that awkward price where he won't earn you enough money, or score enough points to be a keeper.
I agree Jurrah's price is awkward but I still think he's one of the best prospects as far as mid-priced improvers in the forward line goes. He's an excitement machine which makes him much better suited to SC where a few brilliant acts will score highly. In the last four rounds of 2010 Jurrah kicked 4.4, 2.0, 4.1 & 5.0 for SC scores of 101, 46, 126 & 91. His 126 against Port in Rd 21 came from 11 possessions. I see his accuracy and efficiency as adequate compensation for a low possession count, and I think he'll get more touches as his fitness improves. He has to be the Dees main target and could be a roughie for the Coleman if he plays all year. My main concern is his fitness. He didn't play until Rd 12 in his first year and Rd 15 last year. I'll be watching him very closely in the pre-season and if he's fit and firing for round one this year he's on my short list. He may be a bit inconsistent but I think he represents value.
Going back a bit... I think NR would be the only KPF i start with this season. but its early days yet, depends a lot on everyones preseasons of course. but I think the onball type forwards will be the go. but will be interesting to see how the new bench rules affect it all this season. less bench time may mean more onball time, but then it may also mean more time 'resting' close to goal... Chappy is a definite for me. but probably the only one at this stage. Maybe ROK too...
what do people think of the following players: Nathan Ablett: Was not originally on my radar, but as one of GC's few mature age forward options, surely he plays every week, and his price can only rise from 107k Adam Goodes: was last year just a hiccup, kind of like when Hodge was played out of position for most of 2009. over 30 now, but has proven highly durable, rarely missing a game. could be great value if he's played in the middle. Ryan O'Keefe: same boat as Goodes really thoughts?
I reckon Ablett at that price could be alright. Although that's if GC get the ball forward enough. Goodes is a lock for mine. Surely he will play primarily midfield again this year. ROK was ravaged by injury last year. Depending on his price, he might be ok, but he seemed to play less midfield time last year compared to previous years. I reckon Sydney's improving young mids, as well as Goodes going back to the midfield, will reduce his midfield time.
Ablett is a lock for my bench. Jurrah is an interesting one (what's his price?) if he gets a full pre season I'll definitely look at him. He rioli and jack were the 3 last year that i told myself i'd get this year (but probs wont- and ill be kicking myself after round 1 when they all get a tonne!) Coleman medal seems far fetched, but if J Riewoldt can win it then why not?!
<blockquote>Quote from bonesy on January 26, 2011, 16:32 Adam Goodes: was last year just a hiccup, kind of like when Hodge was played out of position for most of 2009. over 30 now, but has proven highly durable, rarely missing a game. could be great value if he's played in the middle. Ryan O'Keefe: same boat as Goodes really thoughts?</blockquote> Regarding Goodes it really is determinded by where Sydney plays him, in the mids he could be in if hes plays KPF ill past. With ROK he had a niggling injury for most of last year and therefore affecting his scores. I think hell be better this year and will average more like he did in previous years so ill consider. If i had to choose one id choose Goodes just. Both are around 30 does that effect ppl's opinions?