Jeopardy: Who are 3 people I have never heard of? Which team(s) do they play for, JMac? Can't say the names ring a bell mate.
Weller - no, there are better GC options Green - think about him, then probably say no Phillips - never heard of him so he's probably also in the junk heap Green is the bigger one to watch of these three.
After watching Heppell get around on Friday night, I'm fast going cold on his prospects as a rookie-cashcow. He had more than 80% TOG against Collingwood and just couldn't get involved in the contest at any stage. Tried hard, but against senior bodies he just wasn't able to compete. I'm not trying to just criticise the guy, he's young and all that, but I'm struggling to justify the extra 50-60k on his starting salary compared to some of the other rookies on offer. What I can't see is Heppell rising in price enough to make him a worthwhile cashcow. He would have to perform significantly better than a $100k rookie to make the same money, and I suspect he may not actually perform even as well as some of the $100k rookies will perform. Anyone else looking at this particular issue?
Jason - first couple of weeks he was fantastic though. I'm prepared to punt on him just having a bad week. Easy to jump on others on the most recent game, but 2-3 good weeks then a stinker is OK for any rookie. I'd say the same about Gaff and Conca - reckon they have stunk up the place for 3 weeks, but were apparently good this week. Both are $10k to $20k more than Heppell and no MPP.
Yes Jason re : cheap MPP. I seen him the same as I seen I Smith bit too light to score in heavy traffic........No doubt he'll be a solid player but 2012 might be it.
Re Heppell's value, as pointed out by Jason, the Bombers have a pretty tough first 5 weeks, with pretty serious contenders they face. Then Rds 6 and 7 they have the Suns and Eagles @ Etihad. It is quite possible the Bomber rookies like Heppell and Hibberd who we are all in love with, may really struggle the first 5 weeks (vs Dogs, Swans, StK, Blues and Pies) of the season.... Wondering if we could all seriously lose money on these guys the first 5 weeks, then jump on them...??!!! Thats the fun of the game though, isn't it!!
Don't think you want to be stuffing around with trading Rookies in R 6/7. The way I'm thinking is that if I don't think they will get serious game time and raise by $150k-ish over the first half of the year, then they're out. If I do, they're in. Heppell stunk it up this week, but at the moment I'm sticking fat. He was really good in the first 3 weeks, and I'm tipping Essendon to keep playing the kids.
BTW GlenS, Heppell would need to score less than 30 in each of the first 3 weeks for his value to drop. If that happens I'm tipping he won't be in the team any longer...
I'm sticking with him too. Almost a barometer of Essendons efforts over the last 4 weeks. Had 3 really good games and then fell short in the final. Nothing has changed my mind about him and I reckon Hird will be thinking the same thing. He and Essendon came up against the best and if anything it's a good learning experience for him as he can go away and work on the things that he learnt during that game.
I'm punting hopes that Josh Kennedy will go well this season. Good price and has great upside to him. Pity he isn't with the Hawks anymore haha
<blockquote>Quote from Corks on March 13, 2011, 13:04 Jason - first couple of weeks he was fantastic though. I'm prepared to punt on him just having a bad week. Easy to jump on others on the most recent game, but 2-3 good weeks then a stinker is OK for any rookie. I'd say the same about Gaff and Conca - reckon they have stunk up the place for 3 weeks, but were apparently good this week. Both are $10k to $20k more than Heppell and no MPP.</blockquote>I don't have Gaff or Conca for the same reason... they are probably overvalued compared to their preseason performances. I reckon Heppell's first couple of weeks could have been inflated because of the number of kids that he was playing against. But when Collingwood had a much more experienced side out there he just couldn't handle it. Hibberd on the other hand looked more composed in the 4th round of NAB.
Heppell's start price means he has to average 31.5 SC points each week. Compare that to Hibberd, who has to average 21 SC points each week to maintain the start price. I agree with the earlier post that if either of these guys average less than 30 ppg they will be out of the team more than likely. But what concerns me is not whether they can make their starting price, but can they improve on their starting average and thus increase in price? I can't see Heppell with an average that is 10ppg better than Hibberd at the moment. And therefore I can't justify the extra 50k start price as I think they both have the same level of job security.
@Jason...I have been thinking the same re Heppell. But I really need to see which rookies are playing R1. Prob will stick with him though.
What value do you put on MPP? Is it worth paying an extra $40-$50k to be able to swap players around? That's the question that's keeping me swapping blokes in and out!
For the record, I dare say Heppell will be in my side. Having watched him in the first 3 rounds,he lit it up! One bad game against a pretty bloody good outfit shouldn't necessarily put a black mark through his name. I am a little concerned though with the run the Bombers have in the first 5 games though. Can't see him really scoring heavily - then again, there is every chance he may see a lot of the ball in defence!!
Swallow and Claye Beams in the best tonight...CB worth considering. Any word on Liber, Wallis and Atley this weekend? Heard Liber was good again - must be getting close to a certain starter from all the positive feedback?
@Corks The problem I have with considering whether Libba is a walk-up start this year is that I don't think there is a vacancy from last year's midfield group. Basically all of our mids are up and running at this point this year, even Cooney who lit it up in Ballarat yesterday. In fact, relative to the end of 2010 when Higgins and Cooney were missing, there is actually more competition for midfielder spots in our best 22 now. Brad Johnson has left, but he wasn't really taking up a spot in the midfield last year anyway. The spots that are a bit more fluid are certainly in our defence (where Hargrave, Harbrow and quite probably Lake won't be found in R1 2011) and possibly also in attack, where Hooper/Jones/Roughead/Hill/Stack are probably fighting for just one or two spots between them. Unless Libba or Wallis debut in the backline (which could happen), I don't see them being named for R1 in a midfield role unless someone goes down at the intra-club hitout this weekend.
Thanks Jason. Will keep an eye on Libba - think he will be a realy good player this year - but will wait and see how the team structures up. From Bob's excellent write up on yesterday's game, there may be a couple of reasonable options for M8/9 out of Brisbane.
On Hibberd-Heppell, on the strength of the NAB Cup Final, Hibberd won a lot of fans with his fanatical attack on the ball (not surprising as he's mature aged) but Heppell didn't do this tough stuff (not surprising as he's just a kid) Keep the eyes on the mature aged. Duigan, Richardson, Hibberd, these sorts of guys look strong. Krakouer is another one who nearly fits that bill. Otten is effectively a rookie recruit. Heppell certainly looks a talent and it would take a lot of cajones to not select him, but if you are running pure GNR I think there's a case for not having him in the starting line up.