Post 2015 Season Trade Discussions

Discussion in 'ORFFA' started by Fitzy, Sep 6, 2015.

  1. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    people burnt by positional changes last year lol
     
  2. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen
     
  3. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    chris88 wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen Agreed, I am most interested to see what they do with defence assignments, and secondly to see if rucks get a better deal on points
     
  4. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Len wrote:
    chris88 wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen Agreed, I am most interested to see what they do with defence assignments, and secondly to see if rucks get a better deal on points

    Same here regards defence. I could end up with 10 defenders, or 6, depending on how liberal they wish to be with MPP.

    It seems every year that a troop of D/M and D players become mids and people have to find new defenders to replace them.
     
  5. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    Len wrote:
    chris88 wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen Agreed, I am most interested to see what they do with defence assignments, and secondly to see if rucks get a better deal on points That changed halfway through the year mate when CD realised that the penalty for a hit out not to advantage was too severe.
     
  6. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Bandit wrote:
    Len wrote:
    chris88 wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen Agreed, I am most interested to see what they do with defence assignments, and secondly to see if rucks get a better deal on points That changed halfway through the year mate when CD realised that the penalty for a hit out not to advantage was too severe. is that right. I was not aware of that.
     
  7. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    anthak wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    Len wrote:
    chris88 wrote:
    Bandit wrote:
    people burnt by positional changes last year lol

    I think this is very true. A lot of positional changes makes it hard to predict what is going to happen Agreed, I am most interested to see what they do with defence assignments, and secondly to see if rucks get a better deal on points That changed halfway through the year mate when CD realised that the penalty for a hit out not to advantage was too severe. is that right. I was not aware of that. Me either? Also weird that SC would change the scoring system mid year?
     
  8. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    Yep, pretty sure they 'tweaked' it... there was no adjustment to the scoring rules as such, more the interpretation... have a look at the main rucks salary curves around round 6 (Take Sauce Jacobs, Lurch and Mummy as examples)... if you actually have a look at their stats before and after Round 6, they are not that much different, but the scoring goes up. There are other examples as well, but they are the three I picked out as they were 3 of the 'must have' rucks for 2015 at the start of the year. Nothing official ever came out, but there was a lot of chat about it on some of the forums, and the stats vs points ratios are interesting.
     
  9. graeme

    graeme Guest

    Did Goldy's numbers follow a similar pattern Bandit?
     
  10. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    Haven't got the stats handy.... but here is the salary curve, he held his own, but notice the sharp incline after about round 8? I don't think Goldy's form in the first 8 rounds was that poor /Portals/0/Users/168/92/7592/goldy.JPG
     
  11. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Bandit wrote:
    Haven't got the stats handy.... but here is the salary curve, he held his own, but notice the sharp incline after about round 8? I don't think Goldy's form in the first 8 rounds was that poor /Portals/0/Users/168/92/7592/goldy.JPG Interesting stuff, I also heard the forum talk but assumed it to be BF rumours not fact, be interested to know which bit was 're-interpreted', hitout to advantage or not seemed pretty straight forward as a phrase :)
     
  12. graeme

    graeme Guest

    Among the reasons I find this interesting is because of the 3300 ceiling. If rucks got a bonus then some other position(s) was disadvantaged. I wonder if it is a coincidence that Round 9 was (among other highlights) the Dangerfield / Fyfe Saturday night shootout where they scored 188 and 158 respectively while Jacobs (22 hit outs and 5 I50's for 63) and Sandilands (69 hit outs and 2 I50's for 91) looked hard done by?
     
  13. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    I had noticed Goldstein's increased scores but admit I paid no real attention to it ... but that graph and the figures seem to back up this idea of a mid-year change in score calculations. Very weird.
     
  14. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    /Portals/0/Users/168/92/7592/mummy.JPG
    /Portals/0/Users/168/92/7592/lurch.JPG
     
  15. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Those salary graphs dont really paint an accurate picture, because you would expect results like that no matter what (within reason) the scoring formula is.
    Higher priced players take a dip at the beginning of the year because there are so many rookie priced players that need to rise in value. There are only so much $$$ to go around. Then as the values level off, there is room for the better scorers to rise up again later in the season. As we know, rookies generally take around 6-7 rounds to peak, which ties in perfectly with these graphs.
     
  16. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    anthak wrote:
    Those salary graphs dont really paint an accurate picture, because you would expect results like that no matter what (within reason) the scoring formula is.
    Higher priced players take a dip at the beginning of the year because there are so many rookie priced players that need to rise in value. There are only so much $$$ to go around. Then as the values level off, there is room for the better scorers to rise up again later in the season. As we know, rookies generally take around 6-7 rounds to peak, which ties in perfectly with these graphs. However in saying all that, they are still pretty steep rises. You would ordinarily expect them to level out a bit more i think. Higher priced players generally need to score better than their average to go up in value. Which is why they often dip a bit near end of season too. There are also other factors to consider too because just one or two big or low scores can dramatically effect a players price
     
  17. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    Agree normally Ant, but when almost all the high ranking players in one position all go down and all spike around the same time one could suggest that the scoring formula has been 'adjusted'. Remember that the starting prices are set as an average of the players score the previous year. So with that in mind all the player has to do at the start of the year is hit his average and he maintains his price. How then is it that few of the 'must have' rucks hit their average at the start of the year, but then all of a sudden found their scoring form at the same time? If you look into the statistics, not much changed, so what made them score more?
     
  18. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, you may be right. However even though starting prices are based on averages from previous year, if a player scores that same average, their price will drop to allow room for the rookies who have to increase. Premiums need to score above their average to keep the same price.
    Its normal for premiums to drop in price heaps in first 6-7 rounds because there are so many rookies going up dramatically. As i mentioned previously, its probably not as normal for the premium's price to then rise so much as in some of these examples above. But anyway, the only point im ttying to make is that price probably isnt a good indicator. Which i think, bandit, you may have indicated earlier as well. Points scored each week would be a lot better to look at, but even then, as Graeme pointed out, there are flaws with that too. It would be good if someone could ask someone at Champion Data, as we have done in past seasons.
     
  19. chris88

    chris88 1000 Monkeys at 1000 Typewriters Staff Member

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    Updated Darraweit trade tree. I am looking to trade Sam Butler (Eagles DEF) for a draft pick in the PSD. If there is any interest, drop me a line - though it is likely any deal wouldn't be 100% finalised until after the 2016 player positions are revealed given the uncertainty over a couple of my defenders. <table width='448' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0' border='0] <col width='257' style='width: 193pt;[/img] <col width='64' style='width: 48pt;[/img] <col width='127' style='width: 95pt;[/img]
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    <td class='xl65' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Top of tree <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;] <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]David Armitage <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Shane Edwards <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M/F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M/F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Alex Rance <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Levi Greenwood <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Michael Walters <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Stephen Coniglio <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Dom Tyson <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Jack Newnes <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D/M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D/M or M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Jaeger O'Meara <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M

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    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Steven MAY <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Brent Harvey <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M/F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M/F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Nick Haynes <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Ivan Maric <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]R <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]R

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Martin Gleeson <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D/M

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Tyrone Vickery <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Justin Westhoff <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D/F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Ben Brown <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Nathan Hrovat <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M or M/F

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    <td class='xl65' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Middle branches <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;] <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Thomas JONAS <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Jarryd LYONS <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M/F <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M or M/F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Shaun Edwards <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Ben McGlynn <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M or M/F

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;] <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;] <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]

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    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Cameron Wood <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]R <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]R

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Sam Butler <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]D <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]D

    <td class='xl66' style='height: 15pt; width: 193pt; text-align: left;]Clem Smith <td class='xl66' style='width: 48pt; text-align: left;]M <td class='xl66' style='width: 95pt; text-align: left;]M
     
  20. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Misfits are looking for a quality forward 27 or under OR a pick in the first 5, if I have something that would make you want to part with either please let me know and we see if a mutually beneficial change can be made..
     

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