To do well I think its crucial to pick improvers and avoid 'yesterdays heros'. I spend a lot of time on it every year, not necessarily successfully. Very interested to read your thoughts on it, Lucas.
Agreed this one is a hard one and I admit I didn't think I'd find trend data until I looked and found some information that might be tenable. That said, one of the most common quotes before footy season 2010 was that the top 4 had to change because it always does. As we all know the prelim opponents were identical despite what the analysts had suggested from the past. So yeah Terry I'm well aware you can overdo a trend. As there are so many very good players who didn't achieve premium status last season, however, it would be remiss of me not to consider that they will be the main ones to consider returning for 2011.
Hey Lucas! We (at least you) don't overdo trends around here. Your premiums list: bubbling along nicely, a fine aroma in the air, give 'em all just a little taste, folks are salivating = don't overcook it. i.e. WE CAN'T WAIT!
I was burnt last year by Grimes, Goodes, ROK, Higgins, Tiprat, Goodwin, Brown. You really dont want my opinion on this lol. Higgins is class as is ROK but they of course need to be played through the mid and not out of the forward line to score heavy they are both play a very similar style of game and both have the respect of team mates to be heavily looked for. Higgins was unlucky with that ankle injury but was struggling with the tag early in the year so to answer your question Anthank the two factors for me would be has Higgins figured out how to deal with a tag (Bernie Vince never) and will ROK play across the forward line or through the middle keeping in mind KJ + Hannabery + McVeigh + J Bolton all will be.
Have been thinking about Higgins also, but I dont think you can have both Chappy and Higgins in the same FWD line up. Upside yes, but alot of risk to take on.
And if you considering others at a similar price range to Higgins there are plenty of risks there too. Its a difficult call, as you want this player to be a keeper. What are the odds of Higgins playing 18+ games and being a keeper? I guess he has to do it one year, you would think. Maybe this is the year!
<blockquote>Quote from Jason on February 20, 2011, 18:19 Higgins has more upside for only slightly more risk.</blockquote> I'd agree with that Jason I think its a very good point.
<blockquote>Quote from Jason on February 20, 2011, 18:19 Higgins has more upside for only slightly more risk.</blockquote> I'd possibly disagree. Similar upside for slightly more injury risk, but with also the risk of not increasing in points enough.
imo Higgins is capable of averaging around 95 and at under 400K and MPP + having youth on his side. But thats why they have menu's .............Not everyone likes the same things
<blockquote>Quote from anthak on February 20, 2011, 04:24 what are peoples thoughts on choosing between ROK or Higgins. based on value and potential output</blockquote> Yeah this is a problem rattling around my head lately, both in contention for my F5. ROK not playing and Higgins doing well just adds to it. Anyone know if ROK is playing this week?
Who saw ROK? How did he go? Saw that his stats were poor. but did he look to be just easing into it a bit, or was he just plain struggling...
i saw a bit of it and he didnt look to be moving real well, but he did have what he called a groin reconstruction over the preseason so will take him a little bit to get going again and theres still a good month til round 1
After watching his game I have to say I'll be staying well away from his this year, at least early on anyway. Looked pained and struggled to run freely I thought
You can add me to the growing chorus of people staying away from him after Friday nights effort. At least to start with. With such a significant series of operations and missing a considerable amount of time, he might take a while to kick into gear and could potentially make a tasty upgrade target later on for a forward rookie.
After reading these comments on ROK ive decided to pop my TS comment cherry. Ill begin by saying after starting with him last year i thought it was an inspired decision until he picked up his 'injury' but i stuck by him through what i thought was a form slump that began in round 7, his odd ton (and price drop) prevented my sideways trade, and it could be seen as a relief to think he was playing hurt and that when fit could return to his 2009/early 2010 scores. Ok so bare with me here, my cousin works with ROKs brother who says that he is in really good shape, similar to 2010 preseason. As most footballers will say it is match fitness which is the hardest fitness to regain and with sydney having the bye in round 5, round 6 seems like a good time to pick him up, albeit using a trade but he would have gotten some solid game time into his legs and we can make a better judgment on him then having only 2 price changes. Having said all this, a couple of solid nab challenge hit outs and he’ll be in my team, I can’t ignore that 440k price tag with such upside
ROK is now toast IMO! He looked really sore and slow on Friday night. I would say his $440k will be reduced significantly early in the season. I'll be waiting to see him regain form and fitness and then consider him as an upgrade...