Agree with Angry. I have a 3/5 midfield which I think is ideal at the moment, but really struggling to find confidence in forward rookies at this stage!!! Really tempting to load up the fwd line with DPP premiums and be done with it!!!
The forward rookies that have shown promise also have job security issues, I really like Cripps as a F7 however I am unsure whether he is in St Kilda's 22, and even if he is whether he'll be given the vest as he was last year. Couch from Melbourne is another one who looked like he could score fairly well, he is on the rookie list and even with an elevation might be in and out of the Melbourne side. I was disappointed with Smedts and despite Saad playing well in game one, as a small forward he might struggle to consistently score high enough to warrant a starting spot. Weedon, Hall and Skinner all looked good but again, Job Security/sub issues with them are a concern and I can see them not scoring consistently to provide a steady points stream that is so important at the beginning of teh season. Hampton looked a lively type who can get a bit of the ball although his disposal wasn't particularly good and in the real stuff I can see him being deprived of the ball for long periods. Pfeiffer disappointed and playing on a poor team wont help his scoring. Treloar is the one I'm hoping shows something next game if he plays and I'd like to give Dickson another chance. Kerridge shows a bit of promise and is one that will need further monitoring Contrast McDonald, Magner, Miles, Wingard, Gibson, Stevens, Ledger, Horsley, Neale, Kavanagh, Yeo, Smith, Clifton, Reid or Ross with the pick of the forward rookies, Saad, Hampton, Pfeiffer, Smedts, Dickson, Hall, Skinner, Dell'Olio, Milera and Panos, you wouldn't play any of them on field ahead of the worst midfield rookie in that bunch. Unless one of them shows the promise of a Darling or Tapscott from last year durin ghte remainder of the pre-season, then it's going to be difficult to start with them on the field in place of an extra midfield rookie.
This is an interesting topic, and has made me consider dropping another prem in the mid, at the moment I'm rocking a 1/0/3 ruck structure to allow me to get more prems in that crucial fwd line lacking good solid rookies. Currently rocking a 3/1/5, 3/0/5, 1/0/3, 5/1/3, (+cash to up those mids pricers before lockout) once the NAB scores are released I'll get a better idea on the efficiency on the back rookies. So many good Fwd/Mid MPPs last year made it easier to load up the forward line. Great topic.
So Angry are you looking at 5 prem, 2 midprice, 2 rookie forward setup? Presuming someone like Porplyzia is midprice, JB also in that zone. Demonspud, lots of danger early with the number of on-field rookies. I'm also not convinced about 1-0-3, though there are good arguments on both sides. Generally those who are advocating 1-0-3 are those who think they can come back later and succeed in their leagues, not necessarily for overall. That said Orren's ruckwork against quality opponents gives definite food for thought. He and Giles will certainly be in everyone's team. Just can't see the value in that final ruck spot, but maybe that's half the point, and you could go with a Rowe or someone similar just in case Roughead is needed to plug some gaps later in the year.
Angry - also what were your thoughts on Cooyou on the weekend? Could he get an elevation? He's awkwardly priced, but certainly has some smarts about him. On the midfield rookie-prem vs forward debate, what's being discussed here is really: Rookie forward + Mid prem v Rookie mid + Fwd prem Mid prem will probably outscore the Fwd by 10-15 pts. Therefore in order for the rookie selection to work, your rookie forward needs to score probably 50 given most rookie mids will be somewhere in that 70 zone. But of course your fwd rookie would need to be a little less on starting price (which can be expected unless you are looking at a lot of mature aged mid rookies) If at GWS rookies in the mids I think will be tempo affected, and outside GWS they could end up being sub affected. I don't have stats showing teams put mids as the sub more often than forwards or backs, but I do think it's more likely that a running/impact player is put in that position rather than a big bloke.
I think we'll all have different opinions if Treloar, DShiel, and possibly A.Kennedy get on the park this weekend.Plus L.Brown from adelaide.
Re: Midfield rookie-prem vs forward debate. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but my thinking is it will be easier to cash in mid rookies as their value will go up quicker (provided you select the right guys) than forward rookies that you may get stuck with. So, while you may end up sacrificing a few points in the midfield initially you could easily make this up by bringing in premium midfielders to compliment your 4-5 premium forwards that you began with while others are stuck trying to manage under-performing rookie forwards. Other advantage is that you can pick and choose your midfielders based on performance over the first third of the season and at a cheaper price than they started (assuming all premium midfielders are over valued at beginning of season).
82 - i agree in parts. to me its just a matter of locating the best value rookies first. Giles for example could average 80pts a game, meaning he shld be playing on the field, which therefore means a premium ruck's gotta be swapped for someone else. once youve got 6 solid rookies, or if its only 4, then the mid pricers may come into play...
Never heard of Cooyou before the other weekend but yeh he looked really lively and is on the radar. I don't know enough about the GWS situation to comment as to whether he could get an elevation but based on his performances, he should be. I am still wary on GWS players, specifically forwards. Whilst they performed much better than expected, I don't know how they'll handle a full game of footy against teams not coasting through relatively meaningless games. In terms of this mid rookie vs fwd rookie structure debate, as far as I can tell, a Rookie mid + Fwd Premium doesn't even have to outscore a Rookie fwd + Prem Mid, if they can roughly break even points wise at the point of value appreciation, then the rookie mid + prem fwd still comes out on top as you have made more money out of the rookie mid than the rookie fwd. At the time of upgrade, it is true that even a fallen premium mid will usually be more expensive than a fallen premium forward, however the appreciation of your mid rookie in contrast to a mid forward will be greater. Some of the M/F's like Martin have the potential to score very highly this season, not too far removed from the premium midfielders. I am not sure of the Beams situation right now and whether he can replicate his form from the end of last season, but during the back half of last season, he averaged ~120 from memory, insane numbers for a forward.
@Lucas, sorry I didn't answer your initial question, currently I have a 5 prem (Buddy, Pav, Fyfe, Zaka, Martin), 1 mid-price (Brown) and 3 rookie setup, with Cripps at F7, a 2-0-6 mid setup (Ablett and Selwood) and a 2-0-2 ruck setup (Cox and Mumford). I usually try and have at least one playing rookie on each line (outside of rucks) and am still hoping for a fwd rookie who looks the goods (in the past I've been so rigid in sticking to structure that I have ended up with guys like Hitchcock at F7), however if a fwd rookie doesn't present himself during the pre-season who I am confident can average at least 65+ and has decent job security (ie: not a Cameron Richardson), I might upgrade F7 to a mid-pricer with Bate looking the most likely, although that would be the last option.
Yeah there are some issues with too many rooks, though train of thought is that Giles or O will score more than a rookie in the forward line, as well as a lot of questions about which Rucks to set and forget. Each has questions over their names. Mummy was looking set, but then Seaby and Pyke did well; Hmac is back so Goldie will get less on time, Leu? Hudson and Longer; McEvoy just very limited in skill; Sandi & Cox how with upcomming support; Kreuzer, hyped?; Nic Nat is he ready to go off? Sorry, as I'm discussing Rucks instead of Midfield, but if I get more (3-4) prems in the midfield and cover the other rookies with the likes of the 120+ prems, that's those extra points covering those rookies I have to play scoring 70-80s. Last year I traded Harris and Swallow out around rnd 9-10, with rnd 1 bye, thats 8 rounds for a midfield rookie to peak, pretty late strategy but was more league orientated than overall.
I'm doing a team for a friend of mine and am looking at something similar in terms of mid rookies. Thus D - Goddad, Lids, Shaw, Grimes, Lake, Smedts, Morris/Ellis (Bugg, Wilkes) M - Ablett, Boyd, Wingard, Hogan, Treloar, McDonald, (Magner, Gibson) R - Mumford, Kreuzer (Stephenson, Giles) F - Franklin, Stevie J, Martin, Pavlich, Gray, Sidebottom, Brown (Pfiffer, Hall) Again, obviously rookies can be interchanged, but the value of being able to run a 2-0-6 midfield (Wingard, Hogan and Mcdonald all count as rookie priced) can be seen in the forwards (where the rookie crop is, generally speaking, poorer. You have to get the mid rookies right of course. But this is a similar situation to last year, where the mid rookies were the ones worth having (bar Mzungu and Darling really). I would argue strongly that, to be successful - if the mids is where the strength in the rookie crop is, you must, MUST, tweak your team accordingly. Previous years there has been real strength in the back rookies, so we've loaded up a little on them. This year, it seems to be the mids.
That is also a very important point demonspud that didn't come into my calculations, midfield rookies take longer to fully appreciate, therefore there is a window of perhaps 3 or 4 rounds where you have potentially missed a downgrade/upgrade cycle and are still playing a premium short in the midfield.
AA I think the gap will probably be greater upgrading into mids than forwards, meaning 3 for 1 upgrades, or at least 2.5s, which costs tempo. Or upgrading into someone like Montagna of last year who just refused to become elite. I agree to be wary on GWS players, mainly for tempo issues. However there are opportunities, not just with the rookies, but even established players like Davis should do better than his 52 ppg requirements. I'd be surprised if there's the amount of ball I expect in the GWS backline for him to get anything less than 75 ppg. Thing is, though, in defence at least last season, 75 ppg was what 7 rookies (Pedersen, Heppell, Stanley, Lower, Otten, Martin, Puopolo) achieved. And at the moment one would think defence is once again where there are at least decent prospects. Swallow was the best pure mid average last year, of 80. There were Savage, Liberatore and Curnow, but they were in that mid-low 70s region. Truth be told if the rookie makeup is going to be what it was last year, then I'd go with 4 maybe 5 premiums in there, and load up on defensive rookies.
On last year, not sure if comparisons can be made easily because GC had two byes before rookie appreciation time. That said, GWS could always list manage all their kids. In fact that's exactly my expectation.
Lucas - you're correct regards the backline rookies ... and also this year there seems to be some (at least on the surface) viable midprice options - the perennial Grimes conundrum, Lake perhaps, Phil Davis very much so. Running a couple of these guys, and a couple of good rooks, would allow more premiums in a line where there aren't as much quality (forwardline maybe).
You're probably correct actually, the stdev of the elite mids would be much smaller than that of the elite forwards, therefore less of a chance of picking up a super bargain. Usually it takes an injury (Pendlebury's 0 a few years ago, Selwood last season) to really kill a premium mid's value. There are a few mids that usually throw in a bad game, Dal Santo is one who will be relatively cheap at some stage and Judd occasionally throws in a quiet game aswell. I do think that Magner is potentially a very high scoring rookie however and Gibson has that potential aswell, perhaps McDonald can go around one last time and provide some solid scoring. Can't see there being anywhere near as much rookie backline talent as last year so far, no Heppells, Stanleys, Duigans or Lowers as of yet.
"No" Certainly Clarke, Bower, Darley, Bugg, S.Morris, Ellis, Tomlinson is something to work with. Buntine and Smedts worth looking at, as are Yagmoor, L Brown, and maybe Wilkes. (And did I mention Lee Spurr? Docherty for the downgrade) Mids sure there are options. Top end of Coniglio (almost exclusively ignored), Hogan/Wingard, a few interesting candidates in Reid/McDonald, then the perennials (Miles,Shiel, Yeo, Kav, Ross, Magner). Horsely is the wait and see but him and Magner would be the rookie upgrades most would expect. With the depth in mid and defence, as well as Orren/Giles, I could see a team not having any forward rookies on the field.
You're right, I shouldn't have used the word "no", we're still too early in the preseason to discount the players you mentioned, or anyone really. Having said that, I don't think Morris, Tomlinson, Wilkes or Brown will score enough to warrant starting on field from early viewings, the others have definite potential, Darley impressed the most out of all those. Hopefully the next few weeks will unearth a few of these backmen as real starting material. Webberley is another one that I'm interested in, has AFL experience, averaged ~90 in the VFL last season and had a solid second game a few weeks back, not sure about his JS.