I think Lenny Hayes will be mid 300k's next year and good option. If I'm calculating rigt Jason Winderlich could be around 280k...good option maybe
Gotta go with a base of Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Murphy, Franklin, Sandilands, Lids, Goddard. I'll keeping an eye on blokes like Nic Nat, Hurley, Martin Heppell, Libba to see if there ready to become consistant premiums. Will be avoiding the injury prone players like Higgins, Didak, Barlow, Rioli(or most of Hawthorn).
Yeah all players mentioned above will definitely be considered, along with ROK,Hodge,Jnr Swallow,Hayes,Selwood,Zac Smith and Gibbs. At this stage i won't be getting Chappy,Enright,Newman,JRoo and Goodes. Been very impressed with Fyfe's output this year. Hoping big NicNat and Dusty Martin can push on from solid 2011 seasons and back up in a big way come 2012!
I dont know how you can call Barlow injury prone? Had a nasty break in the lower leg in the middle part of last year and it was very clear he would take a little while to return to any form let alone the lofty heights he reached in his debut year. Has managed the one game this season v Melbourne and despite copping a hiding he had the most disposals on the ground for Freo(and maybe even Melbourne). His effectiveness was down, as you would expect from someone out of the game for so long to be but it just once again proved how much of a ball magnet Barlow is. After this season his price should drop considerably if freo decide to wrap him in cotton wool for next year and he could be one of the gun midfielders in the comp for the 2012 season
Michael Barlow is a good chance to play this week. If he plays every game from now he'll play the 9 games or something and will get no extra discount on his price other than what he drops already....think
Geelongs new kids and any mature aged pickups especially by the non victorian teams, will need a second thought as well next year.
The following team fits into the slary cap Goddard, Suckling, Deledio, Adcock, Symes, Davis (Rookie,Rookie) Ablett, Mundy, Hayes, Cotchin, Cooney, Bartel (Rich, S.Edwards (GWS) ) McEvoy, NicNat (Giles, Rookie) Franklin, Riewoldt, Pavlich, Brown, Didak, ROK, Folou (Daw, Rookie) *S.Edwards is from GWS and won the NTFL Best Player Award*
Sainter, respectfully, how can you be putting up a team that fits into the salary cap given that at this stage even those at VS are unsure if they'll be increasing the salary cap next year with GWS entering the AFL next year, or keeping the same salary cap as they did this year, therefore dropping the magic number lower than what it already is? (Man that was a long sentence). Curious as to how you've got Hayes at mid 300k too? Hayes 2011 Ave 86.50 86.50 x 4.304 = $372,300 372,300 - %40 = $223,380
@Hornsy It fits into the current salary cap and assuming it may go back to 2 reserve spots in D/M/F rather than 3. The prices/magic numbers etc will probably change but this id just an inference of the current salary cap + 3 less reserves spots and with the current prices. RE: Lenny Hayes, at the top of the page you'll see that I did mention If i'm calculating right, I'm not sure as to how to figure out what his price will be so I divided Lenny Hayes' price by 3.0 for 30% because he has played the two games this year (there was a post by walesy at the very start of the year "how much would you expect to pay" is where i got it from) so 503k divided by 3 was around 167k, so I inferred and minused 167k of 503k which would leave him mid 300k's. On your comment are you suggesting that he'll be 220k?????? Even better if so taking in possible salary changes that you mentioned and I don't know how you worked that out either.
@Sainter Almost definitely it will go back to two reserve spots per line next year. Regarding Lenny's salary, first of all I hate to be a pedant, but dividing something by 3=1/3=33%. Better off multiplying by 0.3. Secondly, a player's price for 2012 is based on their 2011 average, not their price at the end of 2011. Which is where I get the 86.50 from Lenny's 2 games this year. The 4.304 is what the magic number is currently. I can't currently be arsed trying to calculate what it will be next year with an extra 40 or so players in the system (if VS keeps the same TPP salary cap next year), but given that the magic number started this year around 4.8-ish, 4.3 could be in the ball park for the start of next year. And I gave Lenny the full 40% injury discount because I reckon that's what he'll get. But you may be right and he'll only get 30% discounted. So in summary: Players 2011 Ave. (86.50) x Magic Number (4.304)=372k - Injury Discount (40% or 149k-ish)=223k If you have any questions regarding the above or how the magic number operates feel free to drop us a line. Cheers.
@ Sainter, No way that team will fit under the salary cap. As Hornsy said prices are worked out on their final average for the year, not what their price end up at. Also would be cautious picking up Lenny if he is anything over $300K because he is very near end of his career and realistically his supercoach averages have fallen in past few years. Expect him to not play midfield as much with the likes of Steven & Armitage playing midfield now.
@stkildathunda Yeah now I know how the prices/averages/magic-number system will change, instead of that side will probably will be going G'n'R strategy instead of midpricers. Would that be the way to go?
If you are just going for league win the mid pricers seem to be the way to go, but if you want to go for overall it has to be G&R. That's the 1 thing I've learnt from going midpricers this year. But if u can nail the right ones at start of year you could do some damage with overall. Reckon I was only 1 or 2 players out and made couple poor decisions early on which put me out of it.
It all comes down to pre seasons really, look at Murphy for example. First uninterupted year last year and he has a break out. Daisy would be a great pod for next year, hell i might even have all 3 of em in the middle. I also like Trengove from melbourne, Martin or Cotchin dont reckon you could have both as the Tiggies are still a few years away. Def will be giving Gibbs the lemonade and sars, 3 years and his avg gets worse and worse. Gibbs for Scotland i reckon, he just keeps racking them up. Being a Saints man i would be cautious over Lenny, his avg dropped right off last year after a stellar 09, but hey after a year off to freshen up who knows? I wont be picking Roo next year if the stagnant delivery continues or his kicking doesnt improve, but will def have Big Mac as a starting ruck, i was hoping he would have the year hes having now next year because you couldnt overlook Cox and Sandi in Jan. David Swallow if he has a full preseason would be worth a look as will a lot of their kids, matera etc
Word is that Lenny is ripping it up with the weights and is progressing really well on the track. Gonna come back a machine according to Sam Fisher & Steven Baker etc on twitter, might just be to get the fans excited though. Hopefully he does come back a machine.
I think I'll get Lenny Hayes, but first I'm going to look at him in the NAB Cup & in the Practice Games too. If he's been doing well, more importantly if the Saints are doing well then I'll select him if I think that he can keep his form up. @Sainter Yeah I've seen the tweets too. I think I'll get Josh Caddy from the Gold Coast Suns next year if he gets regular games during the Pre-Season and gets selected Round 1. Has been likened to Mark Ricciuto in his build, but there are probably a lot of youngsters that are ahead of him at the selection table next year because of his injury including Swallow, Bennell, McKenzie, Lock, Weller etc.