Can't see how Beams will get down to $450k any time soon unless he has a 60 odd game next weekend, he is currently on $492k with a BE of 98 which he should hit. That last 60 odd game also leaves his 3 round average after next week. Not entirely convinced on ROK but if he does ton up next round he'll be around $450k and possibly a bargain at that price. The signs looked very good in the first half but the concern was that he didn't get much midfield time in the second half and only scored around 30 points in the 2nd half. Reckon Magner has longer term potential, was on his way to a ton on the weekend before Tapscott wiped him out, Horsely is a must have though. Also not convinced at all by Dangerfield, quite possibly the worst ~40 possession game I've seen in a while, and that includes some of Dane Swan's shankfests.
Just for context - I have Sidebum, and am waiting for Beams to drop lower maybe. Fyfe, if you like a risk, will drop another 30K this week - will be dirt cheap. Beams might get close to his B/E this week or exceed it, but at about $475-480 is a bargain for mine. That's why I'm grabbing Dangermouse. Forwards in two weeks will hopefully be Dangermouse, Chappy, Sidebum, Beams/Fyfe (most likely Beams), Dustin Martin, Porps and a rookie at F7. Strange forwardline in some ways, but happy, Sidebum and Dangermouse have been scoring. Beams looking like getting back to his better form, and Martin played his best game for the year last night. Can bring in one more premium forward as they continue to fall. Let's face it - Buddy is going to drop significantly, Harvey too, ROK already dropping through the floor, Tippett ... plenty of bargains to be had up forward.
Lucas, Beams has a B/E of 98. Is he really gonna drop that much? If he does, is he someone you would want then?
AA - agree with you on Dangerfield's shankfest last night. But even before that he was averaging 99 which, for a forward at about $450K or so (which he was before last night) is still good value. He's getting alot of it ... and if a shankfest like last night scores 140+, then lock me in. I might not agree with the CD scoring of such shankfests, but if CD isn't going to "punish" them, then its worth noting.
you can't trade shaw out now surely! That needed to be done 2 rounds ago, unless of course his injury is worse than what was expected.
Shaw's a keeper isn't he? Even if he misses another week he's still a keeper right now. FWIW - I'd recommend Duffman, Rance or Broughton. All at a decent price
With the bargains in the fwds on offer and the crap fwd rookies, I'll be looking to complete my fwds in the next couple of weeks, with a midfield upgrade not far off thereafter (looking at Nicky Dal, could be down to $550k in a couple weeks, bargain at that price). The backline rookies are holding their end of the bargain, plus most of the premium backs have been pretty poor this season so I can see myself running with a 3 premium backline and 3 starting rookies for a while yet. Would like a 7 premium fwd line and 5 premium midfield by the start of the byes.
Whatever you guys do remember to have a strategy to survive the byes. For those that are slightly off the pace this is where you could catch up bit ground. I would love to snap Beams or Sidey but unfortunately already have Chapman and Fyfe who all have the round 12 bye.
Very good point Moblets, I think Round 11 is the round where people that have thought about the byes could catch up a fair bit, will be trying to not have more than two rnd 11 players per line that week.
My bye strategy is to close my eyes. But given I'm just playing leagues this year, I'm happy to wear the occasional doughnut more than I would normally be.
I'm in exactly the same boat as you Chris - my plan at the moment is D.Smith -> Pfieffer, Hale -> Dangerfield. Hale seems to be the guy to bleed points when Macauley plays, goes alright generally when it's only him and Roughy. And I can see Dangerfield being a keeper for the year, wish I'd picked him instead of Martin (since traded to Lenny Hayes). Or Gray for that matter (traded to Sidebottom)....
What I cannot understand about yesterday's showdown is why Port were playing 50 metres wide of Dangerfield at every stoppage, he was hardly near an opponent the whole game. Can't see the Swans letting him off the hook so lightly next weekend.
AA - I agree there. I think that even with 3 trades available each week, discretion will have to be used - and some measure of doughnut eating will have to occur. Rd 13 is ugliest for me, but trying to rid myself of GWS guys pre-Rd 11. Even so, I'm not going to shaft Bugg, Giles and Old Mac just because it might mean a doughnut. All three are potential keepers either as the last player onfield in their lines, or as first option off the bench. But culling GWS rookies before they are ready just to avoid Rd 11 issues is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Similarly, not bringing in the best available players because you are worried about a bye doughnut is, again, unwise. People need to ask themselves - if I bring in the best possible player on performance and price that I can, even though it means a doughnut in a bye round, is it a better option than bringing in someone more expensive, or scoring less, to avoid the doughnut. One would suggest that, if you are careful, it might be a line ball across the season - for example, if your choice nets you 10 extra points a game than someone else who won't see you cop a doughnut, then all being equal, you're better to go with the 10 extra points across 12 games or so and eat a doughnut one week - you're still ahead on points. The bye should really come into consideration when you have too many guys on the one line (welcome to my rd 13 defence) or if you have 2 guys pretty much the same in points and price - then you can perhaps choose the player less likely to have your munching down on Homer Simpson's fav food.
I'm thinking Dev.Smith to Pfeiffer this week. Then next week Coniglio to Horsley and Shiel/Magner to Prem Mid for example Judd,Sam Mitchell or Dal Santo who are all going to be cheap.
i'm going for league this year so i'm happy to eat doughnuts in the bye weeks. I reckon, shiel, treolar and even magner still have a bit more cash to make. d smith is looking ordinary though