<blockquote>Quote from Powerfan777 on May 15, 2012, 21:16 @jesters - I wouldn't get Ablett until after bye. He's got a breakeven of 185 and he should drop down to at least 680,000 by the bye. </blockquote> Works well, as long as you don't play against people with PermaCaptain smashing out 160s (320s) for the next 5 weeks. GAJ is about far more than the money, he's an SC match winner.
<blockquote>Quote from Corks on May 16, 2012, 19:19 <blockquote>Quote from Gonaddz on May 16, 2012, 18:42 Damn this forum gets me thinking! Cheers Guys! Bugg OUT -----> Goddard IN. Porplyzia OUT ---------> Sidebum IN!</blockquote> Nice, I like it naddz! I'm doing the first half of your equation, but keeping the rest for a double into JPK for M5 next week </blockquote> Cheers Corks! I've still got Goodes and might be changing him next week but for WHO! A lot of thinking next week as I don't want that 550 K just sitting on the bench.
What are peoples thoughts on Alex Rance? Very much a POD and averaging just over 100. Ive upgraded Bugg for him with the money i pocketed on downgrading Ellis to Spurr. Backline reads like this... Deledio, Goddard, Birchall, Shaw, Rance, Clarke, Spurr with Smedts and Darley. Thoughts?
Re: Ablett. He has a BE of 185 this week I believe, AND he's playing in Darwin. If his fitness dropped off at all while he was out, then the humidity in Darwin will surely test him, as it will with a lot of the others, just something to consider IMO. I want him back in my team, but will wait.
Thought I was the only one thinking about M. Johnson but obviously not! Bugg >>> Johnson Paine >>> Spurr. Allows me to keep my Def/Fwd link with Smedts who has finally looked like turning the corner. As a possible D7 or F7, I don't think Johnson is the worst choice. His lowest score this year has been a 68 and has been ultra consistent at around 90+. If he didn't have MPP I'd probably ignore him but it's going to be very helpful.
Just on Ablett - wrote elsewhere that his next two matches are against two pretty decent taggers - Picken and his old mate Kane Cornes. Has a B/E of 183. Won't score 183 this week up in Darwin against Picken and a Bulldogs' team that will ensure they shut him down. Ablett isn't 100% fit - his last quarter last week showed that. Playing up in the humidity of Darwin might slow him further. Plus - and another major consideration - McKenna will have noted what happened to the kids last week when Ablett played - they went back into their shells and wanted GAJ to do everything. Against Freo when he wasn't there, the kids lifted. He'll have noticed and he'll be ensuring the kids are forced to develop and lift by doing a bit of their own work through the middle. I reckon McKenna will play Ablett forward a bit more to force development into these youngsters. It is the only way he'll keep his job. Note also on Ablett - has Collingwood and StKilda (Clint Jones, etc) the two games after his reunion with Kane Cornes. Wouldn't hold my breath for big scores there either.
@FixEmUp - Rance has been in my team since Rd 3 and its been great. The only problem you'll run into is that he, Lids and BJ have Rd 13 byes - you are virtually assuring yourself of a doughnut. But given Scotland also has a bye, you won't be the only one there. Rance has been my quiet sneaky POD since Rd 2-3. I'm a Tigers man and am convinced he can continue along these lines, give or take 5 or so points for the rest of the year. He earns a lot of points for his intercept marking and contested marking. His disposal efficiency has improved hugely and he often runs out of defence, off his opponent, and delivers long outside 50. I've got Lids, BJ, Rance, Shaw, Duffield and (as of next week) Scott Thompson in defence. Lots less stress with those guys all averaging what they are.
Keep in mind that Johnson and Smedts share the same bye round so the MPP is not as useful as it could be.
Agreed BGT, it's a darn shame - I have neither, but have Jacko Paine stinking things up, and the thought of getting out of it through a different bye round player would have been great. Ah well.
<blockquote>Quote from chris88 on May 17, 2012, 11:59 Just on Ablett - wrote elsewhere that his next two matches are against two pretty decent taggers - Picken and his old mate Kane Cornes.</blockquote> Ablett averages 139 vs Dogs, 153 vs Port and 145 vs Saints. Not sure the Taggers are working that well against him.
<blockquote>Quote from Corks on May 17, 2012, 13:28 <blockquote>Quote from chris88 on May 17, 2012, 11:59 Just on Ablett - wrote elsewhere that his next two matches are against two pretty decent taggers - Picken and his old mate Kane Cornes.</blockquote> Ablett averages 139 vs Dogs, 153 vs Port and 145 vs Saints. Not sure the Taggers are working that well against him.</blockquote> Yes but that takes into account his time at Geelong. Far fewer teammates worthy of tagging at GC. And Picken has improved markedly as a tagger this year - perhaps the second or third best in the league right now. Teams like the Dogs and Power are likely to roll the dice and challenge the kids to beat them by utterly blanketing Ablett. Logic being - if GWS can overrun them in the last term with Ablett having no influence, then we'll sit on him and see if the kids can beat us this time around.
Further to Ablett - only scored 110 last year against Port and that was with Thomas tagging him (KCornes didn't play). And that was in a win to the Gold Coast as well. Scored 126 against Collingwood and 138 against the Saints - who weren't travelling real well at that stage. That said, he got off the leash against Jones and had 36 touches. So even if Ablett scores 130s on average the next 4 weeks, the price drop will still be significant.
The upshot is if you don't have him, there is an argument to wait a couple of weeks and hope he has a bad one and you can get him for $50k-$80k less. If I didn't still have him in my team that would be tempting, but if you told me I could trade-in a player who will average 130 over the next 4 weeks, or I could wait 4 weeks and get him cheaper, I'd take him now. 130s week-in week-out is just too tempting, especially when you know he could in fact average 140s or 150s in that time.
whats peoples thought on trading magner - pendles this week or better off waiting til next and doing goodes to a forward prem, maybe stevie J this week? was hoping to hold goodes but looking at a 0 this week with devon out. going for league win tho
Which defender should i get for Bugg? I can afford any defender but am completely unsure. I have Goddard, Deledio, Birchall, Broughton, Bugg, Burgoyne, Ellis, Spurr, Paine. Should I get Heath Shaw? I was thinking maybe Scott Thompson (NM) as a nice POD but unsure. Also is Burgoyne worth keeping?
Oblex of that list I reckon zaha sounds the best, that's just my opinion anyway Tigers i reckon it would help if you told us which defenders you have, as I could say you should get Goddard or deledio but maybe you already have them? We do not know
@yt get rid of goodes first and foremost, stevie J is a decent option..but IMO he's a downhill skier and very erratic. Better off with a midfielder like beams, sidey and danger or even zaharakis hold magnet, his price will still go up. If you're getting rid of a MID, I'd suggest dylan shiel. Are people upgrading backs or mids this week for a first upgrade? Scotland (533k) vs Rance (475k) - they are averaging exactly the same 100ppg - any thoughts? Scotland is heaps reliable but Rance poses value. Other backline options could be birchall who looks to be bottoming out FWD and DEF premiums all suck this year and I'm shattered I didn't get Lake. Normally I upgrade the midfield first for guarenteed points but the rookies are just so bad in DEF it needs fixing, especially with Horsley and Magnet averaging 70-80.
Can't decide on which midfielder to get. Looking at Ablett and maybe Murphs down the track. Stanton, Watson, Pendles, Thompson Who will score more for the rest of the season, who should I get? Stanton is going large, Watson should be consistent, Pendles should lift, Thompson has an epic finals run...
@Tigersfor2012, Shaw works best for your current bye structure as he has the Round 12 bye, whereas Goddard, Lids, Birchall and Burgoyne are all missing in Round 13, which probably restricts you from getting Scotland until Round 14 or after.