Agent Orange wrote: Thanks Walesy. It was a nice distraction (from the things I should be doing) to work it out. I may do a progressive analysis for season 2014 - week by week, to determine the perfect game up until that point. I haven't looking into the initial team & trades yet, to classify them as injury-triggered, money makers, side-ways, upgrades, etc. because to be honest I don't know enough about the AFL players to quickly determine this. What did surprise me to start with is the ~20% upside to the winner - or maybe it's just evidence of the 80-20 rule, 80% skill - 20% luck. If you're up for it mate, we could definitely hook you up with a weekly column!
Sounds good, I'll have a go at it. Just let me know know how/what/when etc. I'll need to do some prep work to make it all run smoothly, specially the stats after each round (only player + salary + score), but there is still plenty of time for that.
walesy wrote: And on that note- this is awesome. Mind if I move it to the front page? Go ahead, it's why I'm sharing it. Time permitting, I may also define a few basic strategy rules and run them through it, to see which would have worked best.
Thanks AO this is a great food for thought. Interesting to see A. Goodes come in for only 2 games. As always the perfect game in hindsight means hitting all the right mid-pricers. At a rough count I only saw 7 keepers in the initial line-up. That's why g'n'r is the safe bet for having a good year but noone will ever win overall without some mid-pricers to start with. As for perfect trading, it's about hitting the form runs. Close to impossible to do regularly I would think but the winner always nails a few good form runs. Skill vs Luck - definitely need both to win.
Hey AO Any chance you'd be willing to share your method for this? Or even just the basic workflow? The reason I ask is that I've attempted this before, but not had much luck with implementation (my programming skills are rubbish). Cheers
I'm just about to do the preps for season 2014 and will need to get in touch with Walesy to see if he wants to make it a blog post. If not, I'll go ahead anyway but just in a forum. I may 'reveal' some details of the logic as well, which is relatively straight-forward very early in the season, but gets out of hand very quickly and that's where mathematics beats programming ...
Agent Orange wrote: ...gets out of hand very quickly and that's where mathematics beats programming ... ha ha, I hear you on that. I started writing a brute force combinations program to calculate the best SC scores. I gave up after I tried to calculate the number of possible starting teams. Even this first step is hard, DPP makes it a really tricky thing to calculate correctly. I look forward to seeing more AO, cheers for sharing your results so far.
Agent Orange wrote: I'm just about to do the preps for season 2014 and will need to get in touch with Walesy to see if he wants to make it a blog post. If not, I'll go ahead anyway but just in a forum. I may 'reveal' some details of the logic as well, which is relatively straight-forward very early in the season, but gets out of hand very quickly and that's where mathematics beats programming ... HELLS YES!