@ SKT I feel for you mate - the bloody perils of ante-post betting!!! Without the Jewell in the Oaks I would have to say get on Ravheel. she looks an out and out stayer and is crying out for the journey - looked good in the Wakeful. @ Sainter All 3 will give you a good run for your money, I'd suggest splitting your cash and putting a bit each-way on all 3 mate. As for me, I am finding it very hard to look past Dunaden for my major bet - however I will be spreading a few exacta's and trifectas around - glad that I've managed to build my spring kitty from a miserly $70 5 weeks ago to be over $1k now!!! C'mon Tuesday
liking Dunaden as well Bear. With the quality of the field real chances for over the odds payouts. Boxing Americain, Dunaden, At First Sight and Lucas Cranach in decent $ denominations and then some savers on the same four to run first and second and field for third. Big one tomorrow in the Star Stables game; the celery stable needs a big result after Sangster got me back into the comp. regards chels
Chels, I reckon you'll go close to winning some big $$$'s with those 4 - gotta love the way At First Sight flew home in the Bendigo Cup - another 100m and he wins by a few lengths, would love to see his sectionals for last 600, 400 & 200!!! Just looking through his breeding and I must say i'm very impressed - he's bred to win this being by Galileo, and looking further back he's got some serious staying blood on both sides with Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector, Almahmoud, Raise A Native & Gold Digger crosses on both Sire & Dam sides - this is serious 2 mile + breeding - and that's not even mentioning Sadler's Well, Allegretta, Nearctic, Bold Reason, Special, Lombard & Native Dancer in his Sire's breeding along with Gone West, Accredited, Sea-Bird, Alleged, Secretariat & Hoist The Flag on his Dam's side. His breeders must be some thorough students of staying bloodlines!!! At the moment I am leaning to Dunaden, At First Sight & Lucas Cranach as my main 3 with several others for the placings. The quality of the Internationals makes this a wide open race - the biggest query is who will set the pace - Jukebox Jury has lead in a fair proportion of his races, however I have noticed looking through the form that he is rarely successful unless he does lead!!!
At First Sight was never going to win at Bendigo Bear - the dodgy Willams's mob wanted to qualify Tanby for the Melbourne Cup. Watch the replay and At First Sight comes from the outside almost to the rail and would have interfered with any challenger to Tanby. Easy money punting that! I read or heard somewhere that the owners of Americain bought a share in JJ as an insurance policy. The defender loves the fire out of the track but is not strong on a hard and fast track. The latter is Jury's forte. May or may not be right, but I am looking for reasons to narrow down my outlay! I am amazed at the support for Niwot, now into $11 (10/1). Fools and their money being parted I think (or do I hope?). regards chels Best outsider in your opinion mate? Unusual Suspect perhaps.
Is there a horse that anoybody thinks will definitely at least place? I know there is no certainties in the Cup but if I could put a roving banker in my trifecta it would really decrease my outlay. Atm I'm thinking: Dunaden (roving banker) Americain Jukebox Jury Lucas Cranach Mourayan Illo Modun At First Sight Niwot
@ chels If JJ needs a firm track to show his best then his connections might as well go home before the race - the track will be a Dead 4 at best - currently they are saying it is between Dead 4 & 5 (Monday arvo reports). Agree that Unusual Suspect is a good outsider - also think Illo is as well (has the Cups King as trainer - although Bart can't speak German ) @ Matty_C I think using Dunaden as a roving banker would be your best shot - can't fault his pedigree, preparation or form and he meets JJ 2.5kg better at the weights on their last meeting 2 starts ago - (Americain only meets JJ 1kg better at the weights from the same race) - Dunaden also meets Americain .5kg better at weights after beating him by 3.5lengths over 3100m at Longchamp on april 30 - to me, I can't see why Dunaden isn't favourite in this!!! Also think At First Sight could be a handy roving banker with Dunaden - that's the way i'm starting to think the more I pour over the form!!!
I don't deny your namesake is amongst the chances Lucas, in fact I rate him quite highly and include him in my top fancies - just not sure he's had the ideal preparation with injury concerns before & after the Caulfield Cup, plus I am concerned he might not be as well seasoned in top class races as some of the other Internationals - but time will tell, in less than 24 hours we'll be dissecting the result!!!
Cheers for the advice Bearfly. The whole card tomorrow looks like a bit of a lottery, hard to find a winner atm!
Just come across an interesting write-up on the Racing Victoria website, check it out and let's get some discussion going this evening http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Analysis-and-Opinions/posts/Steve-Moran-Melbourne-Cup-blog.aspx
Further news to upset the applecart for us who like Dunaden's Cup chances - Craig Williams failed in his bid for a stay on proceedings with his 10 meeting ban http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...in-melbourne-cup/story-e6frg7mf-1226181787751
don't want to sound harsh but Craig Williams could not have won that appeal in a month of Sundays. Endangering your work mates and then wanting a big pay day - give me a break. Am hoping Dominic Byrne will do a stint on the local Melbourne Cup preview here - he has a very high strike rate. Will be back around 9.30pm Melbourne time with his picks. Bear, I appreciate the German Renaissance painter and print maker in woodcut and engraving has not had a typical preparation but not much different from most of the Europeans. Especially like the Lee seems to be pulling the strings (reins?). The days of Bart wanting miles and miles into a horse seem to have gone the same way as kiwi stayers. Doesn't that first beer taste great after a medical "cold turkey"? regards chels
Chels, unfortunately I still haven't been given the all clear from the quacks to be able to imbibe in a few amber frothies Hoping to get the nod in time to celebrate my Mum's 70th with a couple on the 12th - and a couple more the day after to celebrate my day Would be interested to know how many miles Bart has put into Illo on the training track - his golden rule has always been to get around 10,000 kms through fast work & racing to have them cherry ripe for the cup - even though Illo has only had a quarter of that through racing, if Bart has been able to get the other 7,500 into him through fast work on the training track he could pull off a masterstroke!!! That being said, I don't think he can beat the likes of the French foreign legion!!!
hmmm - thanks guys, but again I've changed my mind and gone for Fox Hunt @$26, just a small $5 each way..
Delighted about Craig Williams, because I'm not betting on Dunaden! I think still the best leadup race is the Caulfield Cup, it's run at quality pace, and the sectionals were decent this year if I recall. From that race, Lucas Cranach was a standout, and he was lame in one leg, and had that cracked hoof. Imagine if his fitness holds. Apparently the FBI have been giving it to him on the track, and he is the ultimate German workhorse. I'm stoked, a horse with my name, and my favourite trainer/s to boot. Bring it home Lucas my boy!
Gah I'm still trying to narrow my flutters down! Think I'm going for a combination of Dunaden, Mourayen and one other but the shortlist isn't short! Tullamore At first Sight Illo Lucas Cranach Glass Harmonium Americain Gah, we'll see
@ Lucas Going by the Caulfield Cup form, then it has to be argued that Unusual Suspect was way more impressive than Lucas Cranach. Lucas Cranach was 13th settling, 16th at the 800 & 6th on the turn and only improved to finish 5th beaten 3.1 lengths after having a trouble free run carrying 56kg. Unusual Suspect was 14th settling, 15th at the 800 & 16th on the turn and improved to finish 6th beaten 3.4 lengths after having a troubled run being checked at the 1600 and being disappointed for a run rounding the turn & at the top of the straight, carried 56.5kg - ran the fastest final 400 of all runners in the race. That being said, only 2 8yo have won the Cup so he is up against it, but his form is sound and he's definitely worth an each-way look.
sadly Dominic Byrne did not feature on the local Melbourne Cup preview, I feel a little lost without the guru's guide. However, there was a reference to him making a case for Glass Harmonium. regards chels
Bear, Apparently Corey Brown went early on Lucas Cranach in the Caulfield Cup having watched a few races on tape and finding that he takes time to get wound up. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...l-worth-the-fuss/story-fn67siys-1226181960479 He went early and has learned from that mistake. We will see later on today, but from what I've seen Lucas Cranach should handle the distance well. Unless Corey Brown runs him 3 wide like he did Shocking in the worst Melbourne Cup winning ride in history. I'm just happy Lee Freedman is excited; usually means good things. Don't stuff me up Corey Brown or you'll be sacked a second time!