Starting One Premium Mid, aka the lone permacaptain strategy!

Drew Petrie

 

Porp will be this year Petrie

 

I think two different things are being mixed up here. There's the GNR v GMR distinction and there's the distinction between GNR with 3-4 mid premiums and GNR with 1-2 mid premiums. I'm in the GNR camp so I'm only talking about the second distinction. I'd rule out 1 mid premium because it limits captain options too much but I was arguing for 2 mid premiums over 3-4 due to the greater quality and quantity of mid rookies. In other words - it's a question of where you distribute your premiums across the team. The argument that forwards are more inconsistent and therefore available to be picked up cheaply is a good one that I hadn't thought of so cheers for that. So that's an argument for having 3-4 mid premiums. But on the other hand, spending money on premiums in, say, the backline rather than the mids could see you squeeze out another keeper and therefore save a couple of trades, ie, instead of 4 mid premiums and 2 back premiums you could have 2 mid premiums and 5 back premiums (ok, you might have to resort to a few low-end premiums of the ilk of Duffield but I'd argue that's a legitimate if risky option).

 

My point about needing to start 3-4 mid premiums is that a lot of the top mids have a low standard deviation and hold there value this gives you that solid glut of points each week to keep you at that 2300 average you need for overall . The mid rookies will give you good cash if they string a couple of good scoring games together but they can have a high scoring deviation and if you hav 4 starting rookies and they as a group have a couple of off weeks by maybe getting subbed or play a top team and get thrashed you will have almost bombed out of winning overall in a couple of weeks . The fwds and defs seem to have a higher deviation so you can pick them up on that downward cycle so getting those premiums in those positions is more achievable . When it comes to GnR team set up This year with the high prices the winner overall will be the the one with the balls to follow there gut and pick a couple of mid pricers that turn to premiums not just pure GnR . That said I think it will be easier to pick fwd and def mid pricers to increase from 75 to 90 than a mid to go from70 to 110

 

Spot on Yamum, the question is which line do you take that risk or an even spread across the lines, but good trading also has a lot to do with where you end up
Just love this game. I'm getting all misty

 

@Dabombers.

Mate you were asking about other rediculous strats, well im basically doing the opposite to you, although I think your strats is better. I'm going with 6 premium mid fielders (currently: Pendles, Abblet, Swan, Selwood, Murphy, Boyd).

My reasoning is that initially I'm a terrible coach and I'm really unsure what defenders or forwards to pick this year, outside of 2-3 premiums in each spot (currently: God/Lids/Fisher & Franklin/Fyfe/Dusty). However, its pretty easy to be confident with the midfield elites.

Attached to my initial reasoning is something that yamum said "The fwds and defs seem to have a higher deviation" which i totes agree. I think of Rioli, Goodes, Chappy, ROK, Heater, Addcock etc that bombed in a few games last year and ppl literally got on board for $150k less than what i did. So hopefully this year i'll avoid some of that in my midfield, get descent rookie selections (obviously only 2 good rookie mids) and my premiums will fire.

Finally, i have no idea what to do in the ruck. Not confident with Sandi's gametime, atm really only confident with big Mummy. Kreuzer and Hmac interest me, so i'll probably just run the risk and go with 1 of those and giles and hope for the best.

Would be good to compare every few weeks with you to see how our contrasting strats are going.
All the best bigboy.

 

@Rufus

I don't mind that strategy you have there, but the issue is, and it is why this thread was created, that there are significantly less obvious rookie's in the backs and forwards to select than the midfield. Even if one of the lines held good rookies with decent JS i think you could be justified with going with your strategy, but finding decent rookies to fill 5 spots in the back and forwards will be very difficult I would imagine.

 

Agreed Johnson. I think ill be trading pretty heavily in the early weeks and praying to Jesus.

 

@Yamum - yeah it's a good point about forwards/defenders having a greater standard deviation so I might have to think about getting a few more mid premiums for that reason. Hrm. Not thrilled about switching out mid rookies and picking the eyes out of the fwd/def rookies but I guess that's the game. Cheers.

@Rufus - just one thing to throw in and that's what if a mid premium does cop a low score (eg, Selwood's 24 last year) and you've got no more slots to take advantage of that. Agree that mids are more consistent but you might be missing out on a big opportunity to get a cheap gun. Or what if someone outside your six becomes a must-have? Fairly unlikely I know but maybe a Rockliff for example. Also I agree with Johnson that I reckon you might struggle to find enough decent fwd/def rookies.

 

From my point of view, the reasoning behind having more midfield premiums in your starting team is that, over the year, they will tend to score more points. For example, the average of the top 5 of each position (season total):

Fwds - 2261.6 (note, all 5 had M/F designation)
Mids - 2633.8 (none with MPP designation)
Backs - 2232.6 (top 3 had D/M designation)
Rucks - 2288

In other words, the fwd / def ceiling seems to be 370-400 points less per year than the mid ceiling. Add that up for 2-3 players, and you're looking at around 1000 points on the year.

The opposite side of the coin being that, because mids tend to cost more, you could squeeze out an extra keeper and save some trades (as you mentioned).

 

@canada_blues

My first thoughts are that that is a too simplistic analysis - I don't disagree with what you are saying at all, but you need to consider the effect such a strategy has on your team balance. This year in particular it looks like a pretty bare chest of cheap rookies up forward and down back, so whilst you might be making points in the midfield, you might be giving them all back and more with poor performing rookies or even non-performing rookies (keeping in mind we have only 2 bench spots this year) elsewhere. Last year was a good year for rookies and draftees all over the park (Lower, Heppel, Thompson etc down back, Swallow, harris, Curnow, Libba in the mids and Mzungu, Darling, Tappy and Smith up forward), but I have a feeling this year won't be so kind and the variability between the average numbers the back, mid and forwards rookies post will be larger than last year.

Also, by having 5 premiums from the start, which for most people, are keepers throughout the year, there is a possibility that you could get them wrong and are forced to sideways trade if you do. Having only 3 or 4 mid keepers to begin with reduces this risk obviously, and as can be seen in other threads, Pendles, Gaz and Swan appear to be the 3 certain keepers - there are elements and degrees of risk with all of the rest IMO. In the backs and forwards i think the keepers are more easily identified and perhaps less of a risk. Perhaps...

I do like Lucas' suggestion of the 5-0-3 before downgrading one to a up and going rookie - you usualy have to make a trade like this anyway to catch the rookie or two you missed (for me, Libba and Corn Row last year), and it could give you a super start to the year.

 

The number of mid premiums you start with is somewhat a reflection of the strength in midfield rookies.

The name of the game is to upgrade all your players so you have a team of premiums before anyone else. To do this you need quickly maturing rookies, which are almost always found in the mids before anywhere else.

The trick is to find the balance of mid premiums, so you don't fall off the pace, and mid rookies, so you can upgrade effectively and regularly.

That's why to me a 1-0-7 or 6-0-2 seems a bit unbalanced.

 

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I'm really enjoying everyone's take on this.

Now it is humpday(Wednesday), and a few crownies have gone down to celebrate so it probably isn't the best time to comment on others thoughts. And even though I don't have the stats to back up this hazy thought, but wouldn't I be right in thinking that mid rookies say over the last 2 years, have had the highest ceiling. Therefore your return in a cash sense is advantaged by having more not less midfield rookies. Now I do realize that SC is not won by the team that's worth the most at the end of the season, but spending 12 trades hard and fast to upgrade hopefully 4-5 midfielders. From round 5 to13 with maybe 3 upgrades/injury trades across other lines to coincide with the byes. And a completed side could be achieved by round 14. I think I won't be able to wait until players reach the bubble to achieve this as well,sometimes downgrading well short.
It's an idea, maybe not a good one but I'm very tempted to give it a go.

 

@ Dabombers.
General thoughts this year is that there is a good crop of reliable midfield rookies, but a lack of fwd & def. Your 1-0-5 midfield could be sexy whereas my 6-0-2 could suck! I'll do it anyway. GL mate

 

<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on March 7, 2012, 12:58
I'd have thought a 5-0-3 with a possible downgrade of the 5th mid at round 3 to the best other available midfield rookie might be a strategy worth considering.

So effectively a 4-0-4 with at least one standout midfield rookie locked into M5. Plus some tempo points (hopefully) from your M5 as compared with the opposition.</blockquote>

Trying to get my head around this option.

I assume the premium you choose to downgrade will be the one about to lose the most value (sell high, buy low). If so, it's likely they didn't score that well in rounds 1 and 2 and midfield advantage isn't great.

Secondly, if you downgrade then you have 450-500k sitting in your bank and are one premium short of everybody else. When do you upgrade? Same round? Surely everyone is still overpriced and no cows have mooed. But you can't keep the money in the bank too long or you will fall behind in points.

 

Isn't it in essence the same as two sideways trades? One rookie to rookie and one premium to premium?