Supercoach 2019 discussion

Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, Nov 28, 2018.

By That KI Guy on Nov 28, 2018 at 4:00 PM
  1. That KI Guy

    That KI Guy Moderator Staff Member

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    For random musings, rumours, opinions...all interspersed with occasional facts.
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by That KI Guy, Nov 28, 2018.

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    1. Len
      Len
      I believe this is a SC list, they aren't the same, extremely similar but not exact
      • Like Like x 1
    2. JPK
      JPK
      With all of the "manipulation" of the stats to select player positions (sometimes its obvious, sometimes not so much), I'm surprised they still gave J Westhoff his Ruc eligibility. Even with the stats, surely CD can look at the team structure, and see that Port brought in S Lycett to partner P Ryder, so with two full-time ruckmen, J Westhoff probably won't be spending too much time in the ruck to justify his DPP status.

      ....anyways....
      Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
      • Like Like x 1
    3. insider
      insider
      it's not actually stats old son, it's game time.
      a player needs to spend 35% (or more) time in a certain position/part of the ground to qualify for that position from the previous year. In the case of your Westhoff example, 2019 positions are based on 2018 game time (not speculative roles for 2019); as Justin spent precisely 35% of his playing time for the 2018 season in the ruck he will be R/F
      • Like Like x 1
    4. JC
      JC
      I'm pretty sure I saw a tweet from CD a while back saying it's based on where players line up at centre bounce and stoppages.
    5. JPK
      JPK
      Semantics mate, but game time is still a stat. ;)

      So, can you explain the Caleb Daniel example then? The heat map clearly doesn't support forward status. o_O

      Which is why I said, based on CD's obvious manipulations to put players where they want them, rather than where the stats show they should be, then I'd also suggest that looking at a teams' player list and recent recruitment should be taken into consideration when selecting who plays where. But thats just my opinion... :D
    6. snoz
      snoz
      (Taken from jaka over on scs)

      MORE POSITIONS REVEALED

      DEFENDERS
      Lachie Whitfield (GWS): Mid to Def

      Connor Blakely (Frem): Mid to Def

      Mark Blicavs (Geel): Mid to Def

      Stephen Hill (Frem): Mid to Def

      Hunter Clark (StK) Mid to Def

      Zak Jones (Syd): Mid to Def

      Hayden Crozier (WB): Fwd to Def

      Nic Newman (Carl): Mid to Def

      Harrison Wigg (GC): Mid to Def

      Jordan Lewis (Melb): Mid to Def

      MIDFIELDERS
      Elliot Yeo (WCE): Def to Mid

      Chris Mayne (Coll): Fwd to Mid

      Reece Conca (Frem): Def to Mid

      Brett Deledio (GWS): Fwd to Mid

      Bayley Fritsch (Melb): Fwd to Mid

      Sam Lloyd (WB): Fwd to Mid

      Harley Bennell (Frem): Fwd to Mid

      FORWARDS
      Jack Ziebell (NM): Mid to Fwd

      Nick Holman (GC): Mid to Fwd

      Alex Sexton (GC) Def to Fwd

      Will Hoskin-Elliott (GWS): Mid to Fwd

      Adam Cerra (Frem): Mid to Fwd

      TOP 20 DRAFTEES
      Sam Walsh (Carl) Mid

      Jack Lukosius (GC) Fwd

      Izak Rankine (GC) Fwd

      Max King (StK) Fwd

      Connor Rozee (PtA) Def-Fwd

      Ben King (GC) Fwd

      Bailey Smith (WB) Mid

      Tarryn Thomas (NM) Mid

      Chayce Jones (Adel) Mid

      Nick Blakey (Syd) Fwd

      Jye Caldwell (GWS) Mid

      Zak Butters (PtA) Mid

      Isaac Quaynor (Coll) Def

      Jackson Hately (GWS) Mid

      Jordan Clark (Geel) Def

      Ned McHenry (Adel) Mid-Fwd

      Sam Sturt (Frem) Fwd

      Xavier Duursma (PtA) Def-Mid

      Liam Stocker (Carl) Mid

      Riley Collier-Dawkins (Rich) Mid

      OTHER NOTABLE CASH COWS
      Shane McAdam (Adel) Fwd

      Ely Smith (BL) Mid

      Irving Mosquito (Ess) Mid-Fwd

      Luke Valente (Frem) Mid

      Brett Bewley (Frem) Mid

      Nathan Kreuger (Geel) Fwd

      Darcy Fort (Geel) Ruck

      Sam Collins (GC) Def

      Josh Corbett (GC) Fwd

      Jacob Koschitzke (Haw) Def-Fwd

      Marty Hore (Melb) Def

      Nick Hind (StK) Mid

      Rhylee West (WB) Mid
      • Like Like x 3
    7. Jason
      Jason
      The positions of players will always tend to be out-of-date in SC because CD claim to base their work on last year's stats but coaches don't necessarily stick to last year's approach.

      It is when they bring their own discretion into it that it all starts to smell a bit. If they purely went on data, their position would be totally defensible (even if some might not like it). But the subjective element undermines their position.

      They should either go totally on a data-based approach or they should do sufficient research to better predict where a player is going to play for the coming season and "guestimate" all player positions (not just a handful).
      • Like Like x 1
    8. insider
      insider
      Those heat maps are a nice *rough* guide, however note that they are POSSESSION heat maps... not 'time where a bloke most parked himself' heat maps.
      Permit me an example: A Gold Coast player has been parked deep at full forward for 3/4ers of the game and hasnt gotten near the footy (sorry @choppers) so he is swung into the backline for the last quarter and gets half a dozen touches. His POSSESSION heat map will show him 'hot' in the backline and that's it... however the CD positional calcs are based on time in 'x' line (fwd,def,mid,ruck). So therefore, in this example, he spent 75% as a fwd and 25% as a back; thus under the 35% threshold to qualify as a F/D.
      Make sense?
      • Like Like x 2
    9. Jason
      Jason
      Caleb Daniel didn't spend the majority of 2018 as a FWD. He probably didn't even spend 35% of his time there. He spent 30% (6 of the 20 games) as a pure DEF but is somehow a FWD.
    10. JPK
      JPK
      Is that how the heat maps work? I actually (genuinely) thought that the dots were disposals (not where a player gains possession, but where they dispose of the ball through legitimate terms), and the shading (red-through-green) was GPS data for where they spent game time.
    11. Jason
      Jason
      They are possessions, not disposals.
    12. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      D433B80B-3F61-435D-B106-034DE033DF19.png
      A3C0B506-535E-4712-B863-D42569185581.png
      Some insight from Mr Paton
      • Like Like x 2
    13. TheTassieHawk
    14. Len
      Len
      Top 10 most expensive SuperCoach players
      1. Brodie Grundy (Coll) $708,200 ruck (av 130.5)
      2. Tom Mitchell (Haw) $700,800 mid (av 129.1)
      3. Max Gawn (Melb) $692,100 ruc (av 127.5)
      4. Jack Macrae (WB) $689,700 mid (av 127.1)
      5. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $660,500 mid/fwd (av 121.7)
      6. Patrick Cripps (Carl) $648,200 mid (av 119.4)
      7. Clayton Oliver (Melb) $622,700 (av 114.7)
      8. Nat Fyfe (Frem) $618,100 (av 113.9)
      9. Josh Kelly (GWS) $617,800 (av 113.8)
      10. Jake Lloyd (Syd) $608,200 def (av 112.1)
      • Like Like x 5
    15. stowie
      stowie
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    16. JPK
      JPK
      That sucks. Never wish injuries upon anyone. Worse when its repeat injuries.
      • Like Like x 1
    17. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Poor Doc

      Danger as a fwd is laughable. Has to be in every team and the only question now is do you take a gamble on anyone more expensive than him? History suggests its wrong to take expensive rucks but the gap between the top two and the rest is massive...Then there's a lot of value again this season amongst the midfield premiums meaning Titch and Macrae would be better as upgrade targets but who knows what their ceiling is.
    18. Penske file
      Penske file
      Is supercoach gold still included for subscription users or do you now have to pay it separately. For some reason they say my user name is incorrect even though it comes up automatically. ??
    19. Len
      Len
      It is included mate, a couple of years ago my user name did the same, I emailed them and got it sorted after about a week.
      It should be identical to News subscription, both password and login and be bulletproof, but..
    20. walesy
      walesy
      2017: http://tooserious.net/forum/player_...&name=Patrick Dangerfield#i5tC6t5uAOKv5Sld.97
      2018: http://tooserious.net/forum/player_calc.php?id=365&pcid=46681#dH0CAYuRID5f9zAK.97

      There's always drops. I don't think any priced at above 700k is worth it (Except as the captaincy option).

      A 150k drop in price is as good as a 100k rookie that you sell for 250k.

      Funnily enough though, after using Danger for the above example, 660k is a lot more sustainable :D
      • Like Like x 2

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