I think an interesting rule that not many people may know is that, there is a set salary cap allocated to the total pool of afl listed players at the beginning of each year. It is for this reason that you will see almost all of the super premiums drop in price at the beginning of the season in order to accomadate the fluctuation in value of the rookies. Its for this reason that i personally think that with the addition of 40 odd players into the league next year, we'll see quite a few priums and potential bargains go underpriced.
@shanaz Wow didn't know that... @ExPez With the magic number of around 5400 you think, it looks like Buddy and Fyfe will be really expensive, would you reccomend going with someone in the mid 400s rather then high 500s for about 10-15 ppg difference? Just on different news, the 8 that were taken off te list quite surprise me! Nathan Ablett, Mark Lock, Michael Coad, Jack Stanlake, Roaland Ah Chee, Joel Tippett, Jake Crawford and Jack Stanley. Surprised with the delisting on Mark Lock, I thought he was part of there VFL Leadership group last season? I could see it coming for Ablett, as I did with Stanlake, Stanley and Crawford. I reckon Ah Chee will get picked up again though IMO, personally I thought Lock deserved a spot on the list, not sure about Tippett. Does Moss/Magin get a spot before Lock? I like Magin, But Lock WAS the Captain oif the VFL team....? THIS YEAR'S TOP 10 PENDLEBURY - If the magic number is back to 5400, then looks like Pendlebury will be at 696k COX - 658k DAL SANTO - 642k MURPHY - 637k SWAN - 653k ABLETT - 685k JUDD - 621k BOYD - 621k PRIDDIS - 615k SWALLOW - 599k Just wanted to point out, Rockliff has been one that people have been talking about, however he'll be priced higher then Andrew Swallow... Zaharakis will be 490-odd k..... Will be a tough year again on the selection table, would reccoemend not many midpricers, GnR the best way to go... Going to be really tough to pick out players that will be cheap next year, even looking at an injury prone players, like Drummond, looks like he'll be 400k, waste methinks.... Myself I've been talking about Lenny Hayes a lot, I just have one question, at the start of this year there was a post that had discount on players if they play less then so and so games, does that still happen again this year? If not, then my dream of Hayes being cheap isn't good, looking to be (if their is no discount, 2 games played) 464k. Brain Lake, will be 310k (odd) and has just played 5 games so could have a discount too if they do it. With players prices looking to rise EXTREMELY with the 5400 magic number, just remember that if it goes back to 2 bench spots, that's 270-360-odd k that you have to spare from those bench spots taken away.
like i said before.. i dont think the prices will be that high. i reckon the magic number will be a little lower due the influx of new players into the league. only time will tell i guess. but its very very unlikely that there will be that many players at such high prices
Just checked out the top 50 scorers for the 2011 supercoach season. 30 were pure mids 6 were mid/fwds 5 were mid/def 4 were rucks 3 were forwards 1 defender Might help where you need to spend your $ next year.
@Shanaz: I'm pretty sure the total player salary cap will be adjusted upwards for 2012 to accommodate the extra players. My understanding was that the magic number for 2011 was decreased because we had an extra 3 players to choose but we still had the same salary cap to work with. My feeling is that next year with the change back to 30 players, the magic number will be increased again. Walesy has calculated the magic number at approximately 5320 as can be seen on the Stats tab in the last column with his 2012 salary prediction. If the magic number is decreased again for 2012 and we only have 30 players to select, the game will become too easy as we will almost be able to start with full premium line-ups. @Sainter: for next year, we all have to adjust our mind set that $600k next year is equivalent to $500k this year, $500k next year is this year's $425k and so on. With the salary cap remaining at $10 million, you will need to work out what percentage of funds you allocate to each position. ie. you might allocate 25% to defenders, 35% to mids, 10% to rucks and 30% to fwds. You then need to work out what you can fit into each line and this will be determined by your strategy. If you go guns and rookies you would be able to fit in both Fyfe and Buddy (if you want those two), but its unlikely you will be able to fit in all of Fyfe (574k), Buddy (588k) and Goodes (574k) as that represents almost 60% of your total for that line with a further 6 players to select. You would then be forced to select an extra rookie in that line to accommodate. This is where smart initial team selection comes into play. If Didak, with a starting price of approx $330k, can get a full preseason under his belt, you only need him to average 90 and finish as your F7 to be a very good selection. Same with Lenny Hayes - if he gets a good preseason under his belt, even at $464k he is a steal for a player who has averaged 120 previously. He will possibly get a discount for only playing 2 games - it might be 10% - if that's the case, at around $415k he is a must have.
Hey guys sorry for the long post Agree with ExPrez and the magic number shifting to accommodate for 3 less players, effectively increasing the price of players next year, to make it just that bit harder to squeeze maximum number of premiums into the team. Not disagreeing with the magic number, but here’s my approach, observation and calculation of possible prices in 2012. In 2011, the baseline calculation for values appears to be 20.55 points per $100k in starting price, based on previous season’s average. For example, Chris Judd’s starting price was $576700, average in 2010 was 118.53, therefore, 118.53/20.55 x 100000 = approximately $576700 starting price. The more decimal places you go to in the average, the closer the result to actual starting price. Try it for yourself on other players. Given that the baseline’s been established, it looks like the players must have played at least 8 games for this to apply. Any less than this and the magic number differs. 6-7 games played, magic number is 22.83 points per $100k. 1-5 games played, magic number is 25.69 points per $100k. 1-2 games played, with a highish average (>60), 29.36 points per $100k. The more points per $100k, the more bang for your buck, but there’s usually a reason for that (ie. LTI). Following this methodology and to compare apples with apples, if the magic number were to remain the same next year, we could possibly expect Lenny Hayes to be priced at approximately $294600 (86.5/29.36 x 100000). Hamish McIntosh won’t be that cheap after only 1 game and pumping out a 96, possibly priced at $327k. Scott Pendlebury could be priced at $628800 (129.23/20.55*100000) That being said, as stated earlier, I don’t think the magic number will remain the same in 2012. In 2010, the baseline magic number was 18.83 points per $100k, with a 30 man squad and $10M budget. The methodology also appeared different for players who had not played many games or had an LTI. There didn’t seem to be much consideration for number of games played, as players who had played anywhere between 1 and 9 games were subject to the baseline number. It appeared as though the number was affected by LTI, with magic numbers of 20.92 for 6+ games (+LTI), 23.53 for 3-5 games (+LTI) and 31.38 for 1-2 games (+LTI). I believe the magic numbers in 2012 will have the same methodology as 2011, however, the baseline will fall somewhere between 2010’s 18.83 and 2011’s 20.55, to accommodate for 3 less bench players and GWS coming into the AFL. If we use GAJ’s 2011 average of 127.1 for the calculation, his 2012 price would be somewhere between $618500 (20.55) & $675k (18.83), big difference, I know, but all dependent on that new magical number.
@Jay It was long, but don't worry about that, fantastic analysis that a lot will benefit from, fantastic work and I'd love Hayes to be 290k!!!! We'll have tosit tight and see what the magic number and baseline number will be etc before we do all this, but either options should be alright IMO. @frostylane 1 Defender in the top 50, i was thinking about this earlier but what you have down will back it up a bit. Next year I think I'll get 2 pure premiums (Deledio and Goddard) and then go with the rest all fallen premiums, players hit by LTIs and Midpricers I think will have a bigger year then previous. MY PLAN PURE PREMIUMS Brett Deledio Brendon Goddard MIDPRICERS/BIG YEARS Jimmy Gwilt Chris Yarran LONG TERM INJURIES/BIG RISKS Joshua Drummond Nathan Grima FALLEN PREMIUMS/BRIAN LAKE Brain Lake Not sure how much cash this will save if so. I'm planning to squeaze in as many Midfield Premiums as I can, I'm not a big one for #1 Draft Picks as they are priced very high, and with GWS coming in this year and more players selected in the first round, the #1 Draft Pick Price will be even higher, probably close to 200k. Rip off to me. MY PLAN Scott Pendlebury Marc Murphy Joel Selwood Gary Ablett Luke Hodge Lenny Hayes Probably makes it hard to squeaze into the salary cap. But as everyone has there own opinions about the macig number/base line number etc, i think I'll just use the stats page predictions, which has Hodgey at 565k, which is quite cheap for a player of his standards (where there are players up at high 600ks) so If I can't fit the salary, he'll be first out for a midpricer, or I could get the #1 draft pick at M6 (I meant before I don'tlike them in the reserves as they are now up to 80k more expensive then some others that can average equal or more). Next year I think most people will go a premium and a midpricer for their Rucks. Next year I'll be looking at; MY PLAN Aaron Sandilands Tyrone Vickery I really like Tyron Vickery as a player, he's not quite a ruckmen yet, and they take time to develop, but Vickery has been used up forward this year too, and will probably kick more goals next year, and if he gets a bigger build on him over the summer, he could really start developing as a better ruckman. Next year in the Forward Line, I'm avoiding Nathan Fyfe and Lance Franklin. You might ask why, and think I'm a bit dumb, but what should I do with a mate with anger management that thinks every player he selects is HIS player and if you select that same player he acuses you of COPYING! That's one of my mates, it's annoying, but I'll learn to live with it 9we're in a league together, this year I had no Fyfe/Franklin, he had them both, I finished 2nd, he finished 8th ). So I'm finding the forward line difficult still, I've got Nick Riewoldt down as a lock, only cause I always do, and I'm a true Saints man. I'm Thinking; MY PLAN Nick Riewoldt Ryan O'Keefe Matthew Pavlich David Zaharakis Patrick Dangerfield Robin Nahas J.Brown Maybe Didak taking out Nahas or something, the only way I'll consider Nahas is if he seems underpriced, and he starts thinking less about getting his greedy mitts on the thing and start thinking more about teammates, it's a bit harsh to say this and it may be his role, but at times he practically rips it out f his teammates hands and stuffs it up. It depends on how much cash I have left, if I have cash to spend, then maybe Nahas could be turned indto Didak and Dangerfield into a Gun forward, i.e Goodes, Stevie J or Chapman. Would love some thoughts on my set up, room for improvement, what I've done right, what I've done wrong, agree, disagree, etc etc etc etc... criticism welcome. Also, what do I do about the Fyfe and Franklin situation? do I stuff my mate and get them, or what?
@Jay that made for a really interesting read. A very thorough analysis! Certainly changes my approuch in any case. @Sainter, you have to get buddy mate! im a bit more reluctant about Fyfe. Few issues with his shoulder that worry me, even if he did play through it this year. Ill be monitoring his pre season closely.
Sainter, I'm real reluctant to set up a rough copy of my team with SO MANY variables, IE what prices players will be, what bench we will get, what rookies are good picks, if they are all Mids or a good selection down back so manythings to consider But having said that Buddy is a lock even though he likes to get suspended
Will people be giving Chappy a guernsey next year? Was a huge let down for me this year, had high hopes for the nuggety cat and he didn't meet expectations. I will be abit reluctant in getting him again although having said that there isn't a great deal of premium forwards out there(Especially with the midfield link)
StKildaThunda beat me to it in the MPP thread. Was going to suggest Rhys Stanley. If he maintains his F/R link, and so does Petrie, could be next year's Petrie/J Tippett combo. Using the methodology I mentioned previously in this thread, Stanley could be priced around $126500. Petrie won't be cheap, but could be used at F7 and may be in the top dozen Forwards. With the removal of byes next year, there will be reduced reliance on benches, and it is very rare that you would place an emergency on the Ruck line. Could enable you to go lean on the ruck bench and have 2 rookie priced players, rather than a playing mid pricer sitting at R3 just in case.
@Sainter If you want to pick Nahas, you want him getting the ball by any means necessary. Good team players are awesome, not in SC though.
Barlow is a must have this season, averaged 116 last year. This season he was getting used to the pace and probably tiring having not been used to working that much. He will be about $410,000 and should average 110+
<blockquote>Quote from Fez on September 8, 2011, 06:55 Sainter, I'm real reluctant to set up a rough copy of my team with SO MANY variables, IE what prices players will be, what bench we will get, what rookies are good picks, if they are all Mids or a good selection down back so manythings to consider But having said that Buddy is a lock even though he likes to get suspended</blockquote> Won't be a lock if he has a LTI...
Yep if this year has taught us anything it is don't take anyone from the start who has had an interrupted preseason, no matter how good they are (e.g Chapman, Didak, St. Kilda football club). You can always get them cheaper down the track when they hit form (if they ever do).