Cmon Boys its getting to the pointy end - would be good if individuals could put some detailed previews on the key matches over the final two rounds. Preferably excluding your own team! So in practising what I preach I'll take the Blanchetown / Korumburra match up, preview to follow (most likely will be written up at the airport waiting for my flight to sydney today)
Bunyips / Blowflys Preview This Round 19 blockbuster shapes as one of the most even match ups we have seen in the short ORFFU history. The ramifications are particularly dire for the Blowflys (should they lose) with their season potentially over. They did however breath life in to the competition in Round 18with an impressive win over the ladder leaders in the Monarchs and in turnsnapped a four game losing streak . The Bunyips can all but secure a finals berth with victory however their form has been patchy since the break with 2 wins and 3 losses. A loss would see them needing to overcome a Grenades outfit smarting from their second half fade out in 2015 and looking to take a scalp on the run home. The Numbers <table border='1' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0' style='border: none;] <td valign='top' style='width: 155.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: #d9d9d9;] <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; text-align: left;] Bunyips <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; text-align: left;] Blowflys <td valign='top' style='width: 155.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; text-align: left;] Form <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] LLWLW <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] LLLLW <td valign='top' style='width: 155.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; text-align: left;] Season Average <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] 1279 <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] 1258 <td valign='top' style='width: 155.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; text-align: left;] Last 5 Average <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] 1260 <td valign='top' style='width: 155.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; text-align: left;] 1257 Selection Table The Bunyips will be without the injured quartet in Prestia, R Thompson, Ballatyne and Langford. They have a bunch of youngsters putting their hand up for selection in Goddard, Boekhorst, Laverde and Robertson should Coach martyg wish in inject some youth in to the side. However barring any injuries on the training track its likely they will go in unchanged from their win over Pearcedale. The Blowflys on the other hand do have some headaches at selection this week. The forward line is hurting with Cloke remaining doubtful and young Kayne Turner having a shocker which will no doubt see his spot scrutinized. Stevie J looks likely to spend a week on the sideline following everyone's favorite lotto the MRP. Inclusions could include veterans Stokes and Walker whilst youngsters in Hartung, O'Brien & Cocky will be pushing for a return to the senior side. Lonie looms as the likely inclusion for Turner should he get the chop. Wash Up The Blowflys have looked the better side over the last 2 weeks taking the scalp of the Monarchs and having posted 2 1300 plus scores. They do however remain heavily reliant on the big Goldstein cranking out 150s. There is the potential for the Blowflys to go OOP in the forward line which may set them back and the expected loss of the experienced Johnson will hurt. This is a genuine 50 / 50 toss of the coin. With no solid evidence to back one or the other the settled appearance of the home team the Bunyips might see them get the chocolates this week.
Great write up Tyze.... Well done. Now I am worried about this week... Time to get down to business! Goldy has been on a great run, but he is coming up against some tough competition in the next few weeks!
Great work Tyze. I'll get around to writing one in the next couple of days. On a side note, anyone questioning my tanking abilities should pay close attention over the next couple of weeks - I'm now missing Wines too!
I, for one, am certainly not questioning your tanking abilities JPK, cause I think they're non-existent. I think you're way down the list where tanking is concerned. Certainly way behind Hughenden Nuytsland and Banchang who scored 1424, 1407 and 1358 respectively and still lost their matches.........now that takes some exquisite tanking ability to do that................
choppers wrote: I, for one, am certainly not questioning your tanking abilities JPK, cause I think they're non-existent. I think you're way down the list where tanking is concerned. Certainly way behind Hughenden Nuytsland and Banchang who scored 1424, 1407 and 1358 respectively and still lost their matches.........now that takes some exquisite tanking ability to do that................ There is no comeback to that...
Pakenham versus Staghorn Flat Match of the round this week is between two of the FU's heavyweights - last year's minor premiers and currently 3rd placed Parasites take on the the runner-up Bulls who currently sit in 6th. Both teams have cracking form lines going into the game, with the Bulls having won 7 of their last 8, while Pakenham have won 5 straight. Averages: Season Since the byes Parasites 1255 1293 Bulls1226 1310 What's on the line? Despite being one of the form teams of the comp at the moment, a finals appearance from the Bulls is not yet guaranteed. A loss here, with wins to Pearcedale, Christmas Island and Korumburra would see the Bulls slip to ninth. While all four results falling that way is unlikely, it shows the precarious hold the Bulls have on a finals spot at the moment. Adding to the suspense is the fact that the slow start to 2015 hurt Staghorn both in terms of games won, but also points for, where they sit in the Richmond (9th place). Given the logjam of teams on 8 or 9 wins points for could very easily decide who scraps into 8th. However, a win here would all but guarantee a spot in the 8 for Tylo's boys, which would be a nice position to be in given they face the dangerous, hard-luck story of 2015, Hughenden, in the final round. (Why is Hughenden the hard-luck story you ask? Cos their ladder position is 7 places lower than their points scored. To put that in perspective Korumburra is the next worst, at only 3 places difference). Pakenham can rest easy knowing they're in the finals. However, a win here locks up a top 4 spot. Who's in and who's out? Adding to a GAJ shaped hole in the Parasites midfield is the season ending shoulder injury to Dayne Beams. 113ppg likely to be replaced by David MacKay's 65. Staghorn Flat are likely to go in unchanged from their win over Gisborne. The key match-up? It's the 2004 draft boys again - Roughy versus Buddy. Both had ordinary games last week (Buddy 72, Roughy 49) so will be looking to bounce back here and both are capable of going very, very large. If either defence can control one of these guys they'll go a long way towards winning this game. So, who wins? The Parasites injury list is growing at precisely the wrong time for them, but the right time for the Bulls. In what would otherwise be the toss of a coin, the Beams out tilts the balance towards a Staghorn Flat win.
DamoH a good read while sitting on the tarmac at Sydney. I do need to pick you up its tyze's team. Selection sees Franklin and Bastinac out another curve ball. Take off time!
tyze1 wrote: DamoH a good read while sitting on the tarmac at Sydney. I do need to pick you up its tyze's team. Selection sees Franklin and Bastinac out another curve ball. Take off time! Yep, Masters confusion - I blame my sub-editor. Very difficult for the 'sites now.
choppers wrote: I, for one, am certainly not questioning your tanking abilities JPK, cause I think they're non-existent. I think you're way down the list where tanking is concerned. Certainly way behind Hughenden Nuytsland and Banchang who scored 1424, 1407 and 1358 respectively and still lost their matches.........now that takes some exquisite tanking ability to do that................ Hughenden didn't tank, they choked!
Well done to all who have added to the discussion for this final round. It sure is a cracker of a finish to the season, and I'm even excited to see how it pans out despite having no way to make the 8. Not going to do a match preview, will instead do a summary of teams who I believe will make the 8. Listed in current ladder order with predictions below. This is not meant to offend anyone or any team, I am simply predicting the end ladder situation. I did this thinking the top 8 would change, but I do not think it will having reviewed most of the teams and looked at the match ups for this week. King Island Monarchs The highest averaging and scoring team of the year, King Island have been smashing out big scores left, right and centre. Averaging 1379.13 to date, the Monarchs sit comfortably first and will stay that way for the remainder of the season, being two wins ahead. The only recent problem for King Island is only scoring 1233 last week and going down to the Blowfly's last week. That should only be a minor blip in the Monarchs race to the Grand Final. With the added bonus of being able to pick the team they play during the first week of finals, the Monarchs should at least make semis. The unfortunate team to play them this week is, in fact, the Grenades, who will probably roll over and beg for mercy considering their pre-bye form. The Monarchs have 9 players averaging over 90 with Priddis leading the team at an average of 116. Prediction: Minor Premiers and being the best team in the comp deserve a Grand Final Ararat Armadillos Last year's shock premiers, I think everyone expected Ararat to do something this year. They have, and currently sit 2nd. They cannot drop out of the 4 but could still finish fourth. They will want to avoid this as second gives them second choice at who to play in the first week of finals, which should theoretically be the second weakest team in the 8. With a recent record of WWWWW and a comfortable 150 point win over the Whalers last week, Ararat look to be building towards a second finals series. The Armadillos have no big absolute guns like a Priddis or Ablett, instead being built around a solid core group. Inclusion Jack Steven is averaging 107, the top for the Armadillos. With Edwards out, Ararat have a weak forwardline with little depth at all. An injury there could be disastrous for their season. Ararat have Coolgardie this week, a match that both teams will want to win. Prediction: 2nd and a strong core group take them to a semi-final Pakenham Parasites See Damo's preview above. Prediction: 4th but a growing injury list leads to a first-round finals exit. Groote Eylandt Barracudas Sitting at just under 1287.67 points per game, the Barracudas are the third top scoring team of the year. An incredibly weak defence has not halted the Cudas march through to a likely top 4 birth. A win this week against Nuytsland should see the Cuda's leapfrog an injured Pakenham into 3rd. Hannebery has been the star for Groote all year, averaging 116. ]Like the Armadillos, a strong core group - except in the backline - has enabled them to comfortably cruise to where they are now.A young list, I don't think this will be the year for the Cuda's, but I think they will make the final will a win over Ararat in the semi. However, injuries could play a huge part in that match-up, and it is only a hunch that they will win. Prediction: 3rd and a shock Grand Final appearance Blanchetown Bunyips See tyze's preview above. Prediction: 7th, but strong perfomances all year carry through to a semi-final Staghorn Flat See damo's write-up above Prediction: 5th, but a first week knockout of the finals series. Pearcedale Panthers The Panthers will be one of 3 teams sitting on 10 wins, but a poor points for will prevent them from rising higher up the ladder. Averaging 1214.8, this number is the lowest of my predicted top 8, and as such will lead to an early finals exit for the Panthers. The problem for the Panther's will be their lack of lower, B grade players. They have the out and out stars in Shaw, Mundy, Parker and Bennell, but these players are not complemented by a good group of players averaging high 70s to low 80s. Pearcedale have Southern Cross this weekend, which they should win. However, if they do lose, Christmas Island present a real danger of knocking them out due to the Smugglers much superior points for. Prediction: 6th but no real entry into finals Korumburra Blowflys See tyze's write-up above. Prediction: 8th simply on points for, but no further than the first week of finals. Finals Series (my prediction) King Island vs Pearcedale [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] ----[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] King Island vs Blanchetown Pakenham vs Blanchetown [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] ----[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] King Island vs Groote Eylandt Ararat vs Korumburra [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] ----[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Ararat vs Groote Eylandt Groote Eylandt vs Staghorn Flat
Spots in the top 4 and 8 still wide open. Gonna be a few teams cheering on the Barcrawlers this week.
<p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]R19 - Some Clarity <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Some major upsets in round 19 has seen the picture for the top 8 become a little clearer, with 7 of the 8 spots locked & loaded congratulations to those 7 coaches. With 2 top 4 still up for grabs its still all to play for in gaining an advantage come finals time. This now leaves 5 fighting it out for 1 with the incumbent Eden in the box seat to make their finalsd&eacute;but. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]It is a simple analysis and all bets are off if Eden can account for Banchang which will retain their grip on 8th. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]With a floating fixture for the final the ORFFU have identified that the Eden Banchang clash will be televised on Friday night football. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Should Eden slip up all bets are back on. The key match ups become the following <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Southern Cross v Korumburra <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Xmas Island v Groote Eylandt <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Coolgardie v Serengeti Should Eden lose it will almost certainly miss out with all bar Southern Cross having more points scored. Southern are at -80, Coolgardie +17 and Xmas & Korumburra significantly ahead. The game between Eden (8th) and Banchang (15th) is not a walk in the park and the review to follow will highlight what a close contest this could be.
tyze1 wrote: <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]R19 - Some Clarity <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Some major upsets in round 19 has seen the picture for the top 8 become a little clearer, with 7 of the 8 spots locked & loaded congratulations to those 7 coaches. With 2 top 4 still up for grabs its still all to play for in gaining an advantage come finals time. This now leaves 5 fighting it out for 1 with the incumbent Eden in the box seat to make their finalsd&eacute;but. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]It is a simple analysis and all bets are off if Eden can account for Banchang which will retain their grip on 8th. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]With a floating fixture for the final the ORFFU have identified that the Eden Banchang clash will be televised on Friday night football. <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Should Eden slip up all bets are back on. The key match ups become the following <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Southern Cross v Korumburra <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Xmas Island v Groote Eylandt <p style='margin: 0in 0in 13.5pt;]Coolgardie v Serengeti Should Eden lose it will almost certainly miss out with all bar Southern Cross having more points scored. Southern are at -80, Coolgardie +17 and Xmas & Korumburra significantly ahead. The game between Eden (8th) and Banchang (15th) is not a walk in the park and the review to follow will highlight what a close contest this could be. Geez tyze, now that you've made it public knowledge, a win this week by the Barcrawlers will definitely throw a spanner into my tanking capabilities.... Although as we go on points scored, and not %, I think I can safely say, irrespective of the result, I shall inherit PSD4.
Whalers / Barcrawlers Preview The final round is upon on us and the spotlight turns to Eden where the Whalers take on the Barcrawlers in a match which will shape the final available spot in the top eight. It's simple for Eden win and they are finals bound lose and the chasing peloton will swallow them up on the line. For the Barcrawlers it's all about pride as they are all but assured of pick 4 in the pre-season draft. Its 8th v 15th some might say this should be a lay down mis&egrave;re for the Whalers but let us look to the numbers & selection in anticipating a victor in this crucial clash. [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;] [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;]The Numbers <table border='1' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0' width='625' style='width: 468.85pt; border: 1pt solid windowtext;] <tr style='height: 16.9pt;] <td style='height: 16.9pt; width: 156.25pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: #d9d9d9;] <td style='height: 16.9pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;]Eden Whalers <td style='height: 16.9pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;]Banchang Barcrawlers <tr style='height: 16.05pt;] <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.25pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] Form <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] WWLLW <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] LLLLW <tr style='height: 16.05pt;] <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.25pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] Season Average <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] 1199 <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] 1173 <tr style='height: 16.05pt;] <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.25pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] Post Break Average <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] 1240 <td style='height: 16.05pt; width: 156.3pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid; text-align: left; background: transparent;] 1216 <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;] <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]Digging deeper if we were to place Eden & Banchang Head to Head since the bye it is all square at 3 apiece. Also over the last three weeks Banchang leads the averages 1258 - 1220. [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;] [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;]Selection Table <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]At selection the Whalers will be hopeful that David Hale is over &lsquo;the general' with his replacement Andrew Phillips beaten in the ruck last week and potentially facing the axe. Having to put up an OOP ruckman could swing this clash. Luey, Benny Griff, & Duggan are all done for the H&A season and there must be doubts over Ben Brown who injured his calf last week. Big news out of the west is that big Pav is in serious doubt for this clash which would place some additional hurt on the Whalers squad. Malceski is waiting in the wings as is Jackson Trengove and Aaron Young. For me there will be one or two changes to the Whalers team with Phillips out and Hale in. With Pav in doubt Malceski might be best placed to return to the team. <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;] <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]The Barcrawlers similarly have ruck issues and will be hopeful big Canadian Mike Pyke can get up for this clash. Shaw rucked bravely last week but a ruckman he is not and it was confirmed last night that Cooney is out for his hit on Coniglio. <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]Suckling & Pearce are the others putting their hands up for a recall. Again two potential changes at selection with Pkye & Suckling getting the nod over Pearce & Whiley in replacing Cooney & Shaw (who is stiff to lose his spot) [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;] [span style='padding: 0in; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: black;]Wash Up <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]Despite respective ladder positions this is a genuine 50 / 50 toss of the coin. If Pavlich & Hale get up then Eden deserve to go in slight favourites. If Pyke can return for the Barcrawlers they are right in the mix. <p style='margin-bottom: 7.5pt;]With no solid evidence to back one or the other I'm tipping an upset it's the Barcrawlers to reign on Eden's march to the finals.