Pendlebury and Ablett are the two most likely candidates for perma-cap. If you don't have Ablett, it would be very risky not having Pendles. However, if you do have Ablett then you have some room to consider alternative choices to Pendles. The point being that, at his current price, Pendles is a bit wasted if he is not your first captain choice.
<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on March 21, 2012, 14:06 <blockquote>Quote from The_Swert on March 21, 2012, 13:56 If our teams we built on P/$ then we would all have 30 rookies. </blockquote> Strawman argument</blockquote> My point being that it doesn't always come down to P/$. Sometimes you just need the runs on the board or else you are left playing catch up. Let us remember that in total Pendlebury scored over 200 more points than any other mid last year (NDS was second, Ablett and Swan both missed games). You could easily find yourself 100+ points down by mid season despite your cash savings.
If you pick the right replacement you don't miss out a great deal on points, and IMO more than make up for it on $ saved. Let's say Pendles averages 120, and Watson averages 115, over the first 11 rounds. By round 12, Pendlebury has dropped from $700,500 to $595,162 Watson from $574,600 to $564,474 Round 1 Pendlebury + Round 12 Watson = $1,264,974 Round 12 Pendlebury + Round 1 Watson = $1,697,762 $95k is halfway to a rookie upgrade for the sake of 55 points. If you fluke Watson to average 120, his salary goes up to $587,495. In that case, for not losing any points, you save $118K
Midge - a slight error in the maths - should have been 1,097,762 in the 12P+1W Still, further on this point. If Pendles averages 120, then you can pick him up saving 100k. Those who have him will hold him. All you need to do is ensure all your mids are solid as a rock at least early, and yes you get that cash saving in comparison. The other issue is where do you use that saving, because if you don't use it fully use it, money in the bank is 'dead money'. The "Ablett factor" from previous seasons was impacted by the fact that you would select Ablett as skipper. I can see very few reasons why someone would select Pendlebury as captain if you had alternative options because he just doesn't go as huge as often.
You can also look at the situation effecting the other players you have. i.e. Pendles and player X or one of Boyd, Swan, Dal Santo, Murphy, Judd and player Y. For me at the moment it's Pendles and Birchall or Swan and Deledio. Tough, but I can see Pendles dropping within range based on the high start price.
He is expensive, but I will pay for him. I realise he will most likely go down in price, but he is a guy that I think will be a must have at some point in the season. I'm happy to fork out the extra money on him, rather than use a trade to get him later. Saving that trade is more important to me than money I will save, and so will the points. I prefer to use my upgrade to someone else. I used to try and save money by being tight on what I spend on premiums who I thought were over priced and would try bring them in later, when they are cheaper. But in the past, it has come back to bite me. I have got injuries and other things that have come up, and I would always have to have a change of plan to fix up other positions. I'll get Pendlebury from the start, rather than try and chase him later which could be harder if I need to start fixing up injuries in other positions.
<blockquote>Quote from gogonz on March 21, 2012, 13:46 No doubt he's not there on points per $ but does anyone think he won't be in the top 4 or 5 TOTAL point scorers at the end of the year? My point is, get him now, and save a trade as well as accumulate solid points from Rd1.</blockquote> There's no need to 'save a trade' cos were all going to be upgrading to some premiums somewhere and it dont really matter where, so long as its a good deal.
Is anybody going to do the trifecta? Leave out Pendlebury, Franklin and Cox. Hahaha that would be a risk!
Oops Lucas...was more an error in reading my notes then typing them than in math. The pitfalls of alt+tabbing too quickly at work.
Just lock him in. All your elites will drop a bit of cash but Pendles will finish top 3 in points so why not just lock him in and be done with it rather than hoping your cows moo when he drops in price?
<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on March 21, 2012, 13:02 I think points per dollar, quite a few. If we had no salary cap, Pendles would be in nearly everyone's team, but because there is a cap, that determines that you need to get value for money, and I'm not sure SP is in the top 5 midfielders for value. Not everyone's price will go down. Some will be able to hit that 110%. Some will only have to hit 107% because their starting base is lower. The hardest thing as always is working out which players will take the next step and which will fall back.</blockquote> 2nd paragraph is wrong im pretty sure. If one player has to hit 110% to stay the same, so does everyone else. What you mean I think is that pendlebury will lose MORE if he sits at 100%, because the 10% difference is bigger with him in pure points. Similarly he has to improve by more in pure points to break even. % wise though hes exactly the same as everyone else.
I was doing some sampling with players last year using first and last half of season. Seemed to be hit and miss but that might have been when I took the comparison from, and the mix of 3 games leading in. It looked like 110% will pretty much guarantee you go up in value even if you tank the 3 games leading in though I'm not certain of that either.
If I get rid of him then It would only be for Dal Santo or Murphy and that doesn't really get me enough cash to make a move with my team that would justify it. If I turn him into someone who's around 600k like Thompson or Swallow then I'm getting the cash I could upgrade with, but losing the top notch quality mid. My thinking is if you turn him into someone like Dal Santo and that lets you upgrade one of your touch and go players like Gray into someone like Fyfe then it's worth it.
<blockquote>Quote from Muttley on March 21, 2012, 23:54 I'm doing the trifecta - no Pendles, Buddy or Cox. </blockquote> I hope Cox really stuffs up for ya!