@Jet: You're crazy. Well you asked Though seriously, it's a fairly expensive way to go about it. You are going to be burning a trade and cash to lose a player who might have had one or two bad ones at the start of the year (happens a lot with champs) when a yes or no decision at the start of the comp might be in your better interests. What about if you start with Ablett and then, if at round 3 you find that he isn't performing, you can trade him down to that mid that you didn't think you could afford or one who is going better than expected. You then wind up with a fist full of cash that can be sitting there come round 6 if you feel you want to put a bit of a gap on the competition. Or then again Ablett might be going great guns and you can sit back, happy in the knowledge that you're one of small number of people on that train and anyone who want a ticket will be messing up their strategies just to chase the golden goose.
I am also tempted to wait and see on Ablett - I don't think he'll be fed the ball as much as when he was at Geelong. It's also worth considering how much possession GC will have being new and mostly young, developing players. Ablett is great at finding his own ball but I think GC's rucks will be regularly beaten.
<blockquote>Quote from aj on February 9, 2011, 22:36 What about if you start with Ablett and then, if at round 3 you find that he isn't performing, you can trade him down to that mid that you didn't think you could afford or one who is going better than expected. You then wind up with a fist full of cash that can be sitting there come round 6 if you feel you want to put a bit of a gap on the competition. Or then again Ablett might be going great guns and you can sit back, happy in the knowledge that you're one of small number of people on that train and anyone who want a ticket will be messing up their strategies just to chase the golden goose.</blockquote> this is a good argument to get GAJ at the start
this thread is making me think i should be trying to fit both of them in - when i was originally not planning to start with either of them.
I reckon lots of "non serious" teams will bang GAJ in and he will be in the top 20% of players selected. Whether he's in many teams that we think will be ultra competitive from the start, now that's another matter. On the "past performance" quote which took on some legs in this forum, I guess what I'm saying is that everyone can say Bartel (for example) faded last year when we all know he broke his elbow and was doing well just getting out there. But in 2 years time all you will read is his average and you won't necessarily get the story behind it. A bit like the Saints mids of 2009, brilliant averages but you'd expect that when you go 20-2. Anyone think the Saints will do this in 2011..? Geelong of 2008 were probably also overpriced and we didn't realise it at the time. I guess what I'm saying (Ruddy did well to articulate) is trying to squeeze 10ppg out of your premiums will be the difference between overall win and loss. Why? Because with so many legitimate winning entries, almost every edge needs to go your way. So which teams will rise, which will be the Sydney and Freo of 2011? That's a harder question to answer but given past performances with drafts and the general cycle (or Mick's Premiership Clock) we should work out some trends. One will be Geelong should, unless refreshed urgently with new players, fall. (Coach situation will complicate that judgment though...) Fremantle should improve, as should Melbourne.
One angle that I want to collect stats on is the effect a poor pre-season injury-wise has on a teams chance throughout the year. Last year we saw Adelaide and (at least through the start of the year) he Hawks fall away dramatically possibly due to the volume of pre-season injuries bring the team down as a whole. This year, Sydney and Port look to be getting fairly smashed in the offseason, so perhaps there could be a chance on seeing- at least Sydney- fall away through the start of the year. And considering the number of Swans I'm considering (alright, 3)- it might pay to take it into account.
i've decided that i wont be starting with either of them. plenty of midfielders to upgrade to those boys throughout the season