TS Fantasy NBA: 18/19 Draft Results/Comparisons

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

By anthak on Oct 16, 2018 at 11:09 PM
  1. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

    Jan 3, 2016
    Likes Received:
    Fantastic to see we're all set for a new season of fantasy NBA here at TooSerious.
    In a late scramble, we ended up with 4 teams of 12 again! and even had an extra waiting in the wings, sorry @protraj keep us in mind for next season, hopefully we can get you into a league. It would be great to even expand to have more Division 2 leagues next season.

    For any of you who are new to this in any way, please feel free to ask any questions you have in the comments in the threads on this basketball forum.

    We have set up a thread for chatter throughout the season: HERE

    Opening night is upon us!

    We had all four drafts at the same time last Sunday night Australian time and they have thrown up some interesting results.
    All up we had 177 drafted players.
    In the list below, Ive given a value of 157 to any players who were undrafted in any particular league.
    Giannis went at #1 in three leagues with Anthony Davis getting the nod in the other. Somehow (presumably injury worries) AD slipped to #4 in one league!
    Harden and Durant were picked 3rd and 6th respectively, in all 4 leagues, whilst LeBron and KAT joined them to make up the consensus top 6.
    Harden and Durant were the only two players picked at the same spot in every league.
    Jordan Clarkson had the biggest std.dev due to being drafted 38th in Division 1, but outside the top 100 in all three other leagues!
    Olyniyk had the best ADP of players who went undrafted in at least one league: He didnt get drafted in Div 2, Con 1, but went as high as #103 in Div 2, Con 2.
    The best ADP out of players picked up in just one league, was Javale McGee who was picked at #88 in Premier (by me, and I still cant believe it, I even wrote in the draft straight after my pick that I couldnt believe I'd taken him so high lol)!
    The worst ADP from players picked in all four leagues was Thad Young whose ADP was 144.25.

    The biggest reaches (based on draft position in other leagues):
    LeBron James at 2 in Div 2 Con 2;
    CJ McCollum at 25 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Devin Booker at 27 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Gordan Hayward at 32 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Jordan Clarkson at 38 in Division 1;
    Rudy Gay at 57 in Premier Division;
    Harrison Barnes at 57 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Danilo Gallinari at 64 in Premier Division;
    De'Aaron Fox at 70 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Joe Ingles at 71 in Division 1;
    Evan Fournier at 74 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Markelle Fultz at 80 in Div 2 Con 2;
    JaVale McGee at 88 in Premier Division;
    JJ Redick at 89 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kelly Olynyk at 103 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Serge Ibaka at 104 in Div 2 Con 1.

    The biggest steals (based on draft position in other leagues):
    Brook Lopez at 156 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kevin Knox at 126 in Premier Division;
    Jaylen Brown at 120 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Taurean Prince at 119 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Trae Young at 115 in Div 2 Con 2;
    TJ Warren at 115 in Premier Division;
    Jabari Parker at 110 in Division 1;
    D'Angelo Russell at 93 in Division 1;
    Jonas Valanciunas at 84 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Zach Lavine at 82 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Steve Adams at 76 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Ricky Rubio at 70 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Lou Williams at 67 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Hassan Whiteside at 65 in Division 1;
    DeAndre Jordan at 43 in Premier Division;
    Victor Oladipo at 27 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Joel Embiid at 20 in Division 1;
    Kyle Lowry at 19 in Premier Division;
    Russell Westbrook at 13 in Premier Division;
    Anthony Davis at 4 in Div 2 Con 2.

    Here is the overall list.
    The ones highlighted orange are picks 1.75x std.dev greater than the mean.
    The ones highlighted green are picks 1.75x std.dev less than the mean.

    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
    • Like Like x 7


Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

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    1. Steve
      Great analysis Ant

      This new format for the website is a joke.

      I have just looked at adding a new player into my team and wanted to see the schedule for the rest of the week and it has the same player playing every day of the round against the same team.

      ESPN sort your shit out or revert back to the old format.
      • Like Like x 1
    2. Rad_E_Cool
      @anthak - Congratulations on grabbing the 3 reaches in Premier league! Although I admit I was itching for Rudy and Danilo with my picks following yours.
      • Like Like x 1
    3. stowie
      Legit, the app half broken too. I can't even see the transaction limit for the week anywhere and FantasyCast ain't the same.
      • Like Like x 2
    4. Steve
      Looks like all the budget cut backs at ESPN have affected their IT staff.

      This new scoring system is taking a while to get used to. I am used to seeing high scores for the players.
    5. Rev
      Sorry, but this new scoring system is a disaster. -8 for Klay (I don't have him for the record) for 14pts and 4 boards. Sure, he doesn't deserve a big score but -8 is extreme.

      If ain't broke (and it wasn't)...
      • Like Like x 1
    6. Steve
      My opponent has Klay and I was thinking the same thing.

      -8 pts is not a true indication of his impact on the game.
    7. anthak
      Hey mate, I’m not sure it’s fair to say it wasn’t broken. The majority of people voted to change it.

      Klay shot 5/20 including 1/8 from 3, and besides his 4 boards, didn’t have any other counting stats. I didn’t watch the game, but that seems like a pretty poor game from him. His team did win though, and the 2 fpts for that will bump him up to -6.

      It might take a bit of getting used to, but I reckon it’s much better that a player scores so low for such an inefficient game as that.

      I had Fultz score -3 today and I think that’s fair given his line too.
    8. karlos
      I'm with Rev. Whilst Klay's was a poor game theres no way it should be a -6. I didn't get chance to respond to the scoring thread and it doesn't seem it would have mattered, as you say the majority wanted this system but I think its been over engineered and might suck some of the fun out of it.
      • Like Like x 1
    9. Steve
      No one likes to see negative scores for someone who has played a full game. It does take the fun out of the game.
      • Like Like x 2
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    10. dabombers
      By the looks of todays games, we have neutered ( as in cut off the nuts as in the Balls) of our game...…
      We have all tried hard to develop a scoring system which is fun and also real....
      Now we have a scoring system which is real... low shooting % plus high turnovers = low points...
      I was Really surprised how much a difference there was between so many players..
      Someone scores 40 pts then a similar stat line scores 18 pts...
      Players like Harden, Westbrook are gonna really suffer for their usage rate in this system...
      Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
    11. dabombers
      I reckon we are all gonna call for the revolution to start by round 3 when we realize what we have done to the system....
      Welcome to the Democracy of Change... = Crazy , If it ain't broke no need to fix it...
    12. Don_Cottagers
      Jordan Clarkson was a drafting error, rather than a staggering overvaluation.

      Finger slipped as I was moving to the player I actually wanted to draft and there is no “are you sure” button in the draft. There really needs to be.

      First time in my life I wished Eddie would jump onto my screen and ask if I wanted to “lock it in”!
      • Like Like x 4
    13. Len
      For the record, all my over evaluations were actually everyone else's under evaluations :p
      • Like Like x 1
    14. anthak
      Personally, it doesn’t take any fun out of it for me. I still had a lot of fun keeping a track of scores, even though one of my players shot poorly and scored negatives.

      It’s just different, that’s all. The players that played well didn’t score hugely either, so it’s just a mindset thing that last year we were used to players scoring over 50 and a low score was in the teens (or single figures); now they’re doing really well to top 50 and some are gonna score negatives for a poor game.

      I actually think it adds a lot of fun to the game that players can end up in negatives after a poor game. I remember @Ruddy advocating for that a few years ago, that it’s really important because it allows fluctuations in games. If players just keep scoring more and more and more, it’s difficult for the losing team to catch up. It just becomes a bit like AFL DreamTeam in that stats just keep accumulating f points rather than valuing efficiency and impact etc
      Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
    15. anthak
    16. anthak
      Ha! I didn’t realise you had 3 reaches! I did too :(

      In seriousness though, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
      I reckon definitely some of the players in the list of “steals” will turn out to be appropriately drafted by the one league that let them slide. We’ll wait and see.
    17. port_leschenault
      7/48 is not a majority.
      • Like Like x 2
      • Option 4 Option 4 x 1
    18. anthak
      We rarely get everyone voting in polls, however I think it was enough on this occasion.

      Actually, 11 voted to change it.
      A further 3 voted to say they didn’t mind if it changed or not.
      And 7 voted to keep it the same as last season.

      Total of 21 votes.

      You could say 14/21 we’re happy to change and 10/21 were happy to stay the same.

      At that stage I think we’d only had ~30 people committed to play this season. 21 out of 30 seemed a decent sample size. Especially because it didn’t come from nowhere, people had been asking me to change the scoring system for years.

      After the poll closed, I took on all feedback and adjusted the original proposal accordingly. I even changed some of the metrics (FTs, flagrants, O-boards) back to the same value we had them last season, partly due to the number of people voting to keep it the same, but for other reasons too.
      • Like Like x 1
    19. costak
      Hey guys firstly I want to say that everyone who runs the leagues are doing a great job and it’s appreciated greatly. Regarding the scoring, I can understand the thought behind changing the scoring system to bring it closer to real life performance, however I think after one day it’s obvious what the problem will be.

      As an example, a James Harden will shoot 25-30 shots and hit about 45% of those to win the game for his team. He’ll turn it over 3-5 times trying to make the play. Harden will score not that much more than some 7 foot centre who hits 6/9 layups and grabs 8 rebounds with no turnovers.

      Kudos for trying something different and being a proactive league manager, but I do miss the old system. :)
      • Like Like x 4

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