TS Fantasy NBA: 18/19 Draft Results/Comparisons

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

By anthak on Oct 16, 2018 at 11:09 PM
  1. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Fantastic to see we're all set for a new season of fantasy NBA here at TooSerious.
    In a late scramble, we ended up with 4 teams of 12 again! and even had an extra waiting in the wings, sorry @protraj keep us in mind for next season, hopefully we can get you into a league. It would be great to even expand to have more Division 2 leagues next season.

    For any of you who are new to this in any way, please feel free to ask any questions you have in the comments in the threads on this basketball forum.

    We have set up a thread for chatter throughout the season: HERE

    Opening night is upon us!

    We had all four drafts at the same time last Sunday night Australian time and they have thrown up some interesting results.
    All up we had 177 drafted players.
    In the list below, Ive given a value of 157 to any players who were undrafted in any particular league.
    Giannis went at #1 in three leagues with Anthony Davis getting the nod in the other. Somehow (presumably injury worries) AD slipped to #4 in one league!
    Harden and Durant were picked 3rd and 6th respectively, in all 4 leagues, whilst LeBron and KAT joined them to make up the consensus top 6.
    Harden and Durant were the only two players picked at the same spot in every league.
    Jordan Clarkson had the biggest std.dev due to being drafted 38th in Division 1, but outside the top 100 in all three other leagues!
    Olyniyk had the best ADP of players who went undrafted in at least one league: He didnt get drafted in Div 2, Con 1, but went as high as #103 in Div 2, Con 2.
    The best ADP out of players picked up in just one league, was Javale McGee who was picked at #88 in Premier (by me, and I still cant believe it, I even wrote in the draft straight after my pick that I couldnt believe I'd taken him so high lol)!
    The worst ADP from players picked in all four leagues was Thad Young whose ADP was 144.25.

    The biggest reaches (based on draft position in other leagues):
    LeBron James at 2 in Div 2 Con 2;
    CJ McCollum at 25 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Devin Booker at 27 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Gordan Hayward at 32 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Jordan Clarkson at 38 in Division 1;
    Rudy Gay at 57 in Premier Division;
    Harrison Barnes at 57 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Danilo Gallinari at 64 in Premier Division;
    De'Aaron Fox at 70 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Joe Ingles at 71 in Division 1;
    Evan Fournier at 74 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Markelle Fultz at 80 in Div 2 Con 2;
    JaVale McGee at 88 in Premier Division;
    JJ Redick at 89 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kelly Olynyk at 103 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Serge Ibaka at 104 in Div 2 Con 1.


    The biggest steals (based on draft position in other leagues):
    Brook Lopez at 156 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kevin Knox at 126 in Premier Division;
    Jaylen Brown at 120 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Taurean Prince at 119 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Trae Young at 115 in Div 2 Con 2;
    TJ Warren at 115 in Premier Division;
    Jabari Parker at 110 in Division 1;
    D'Angelo Russell at 93 in Division 1;
    Jonas Valanciunas at 84 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Zach Lavine at 82 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Steve Adams at 76 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Ricky Rubio at 70 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Lou Williams at 67 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Hassan Whiteside at 65 in Division 1;
    DeAndre Jordan at 43 in Premier Division;
    Victor Oladipo at 27 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Joel Embiid at 20 in Division 1;
    Kyle Lowry at 19 in Premier Division;
    Russell Westbrook at 13 in Premier Division;
    Anthony Davis at 4 in Div 2 Con 2.


    Here is the overall list.
    The ones highlighted orange are picks 1.75x std.dev greater than the mean.
    The ones highlighted green are picks 1.75x std.dev less than the mean.

     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
    • Like Like x 7

Comments

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

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    1. anthak
      anthak
      Hey guys,
      You might end up being right about Harden etc, especially in single games, but it’s a little early to tell that it’s going to change this much overall, compared to what we knew yesterday before the season started.

      Harden and Westbrook still haven’t even played. There have only been two games of the season played so far.

      When we went through a process to change the system, with lots of people voting and/or giving feedback at the time, I woulda thought people would try and embrace it and have fun with it, or at least just give it a go?

      Re Harden and Russ.
      Looking at last season’s stats and the new scoring system, Harden still came in at #3 for ave fpts. Behind AD and LeBron. The top 3 were clear above 4th.

      Then it was Giannis, Curry, KAT and then Westbrook. Hardly dominated by bigs at the very top end. Durant was next btw, before a C Jokic. I do acknowledge bigs can do well in this system, but not at the expense of the best players.

      The biggest hit to Westbrook was the reduction of points for triple doubles. He’s a beast regardless of turnovers & shooting efficiency so he’s still clearly in the top echelon of players under this scoring. As is Harden.

      I’m sure they’ll have poor games, but on averages over last season they still dominated under our scoring.
      Last edited: Oct 18, 2018
    2. anthak
      anthak
      Man, that sux so much. I did think it was rather strange lol! I hope he works out for you after that haha
    3. tasho
      tasho
      I agree with Ant here. By averages they were still in the top 8 players from last season so should be fine. There's been only two games of the entire season so we shouldn't overreact as a result. I liked the old scoring system and voted for it to stay but unfortunately it didn't go that way. But let's get a decent sample on games before we call this a failure just yet. It's just different with lower scores.
      • Like Like x 2
    4. Chris Whitey
      Chris Whitey
      I find the new ESPN site frustratingly bad!
      With the new scoring - yes it is way different from what we are used to. It doesn’t seem fair though that everyone pipes up now and says if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
      I’m very greatful for all the time Anthak has put in to tweak it so let’s give it a bit more time to get used too.
      I watched both games yesterday and it’s not just high volume shooters that will suffer, Embiid and Horford both had pretty good games but didn’t get huge scores.
      Let’s give it more time before we put Ant up on a crucifix :)
      • Like Like x 4
    5. stowie
      stowie
      I'm sure all the top guys will be fine overall, hopefully we dug deep enough with the analysis and the lower ranked guys aren't taking too much of a hit or producing weird results.

      9 PTS, 4/7 FG, 0/1 FT, 4 REB (0 OREB), 2 AST, 5 BLK, 3 TO = 19 FPTS
      12 PTS, 6/7, 0/0 FT, 3 REB (2 OREB), 2 AST, 3 BLK, 2 TO = 27 FPTS

      I dunno, felt weird watching most of both games, seeing what these two players contributed and then comparing their fantasy scores. Maybe we went a bit hard on missed shots? Happy to ride with it for now, only been 2 games.

      As for the website... sheeeeeeeesh
      • Like Like x 2
    6. HEAVER
      HEAVER
      A lot of interesting banter on the forum. We'll see how the season plays out....

      Goes to show the First Rule of NBA fantasy draft day: know the scoring system
      The Second Rule of NBA fantasy draft day: know the scoring system

      There were always going to be market inefficiencies with the new scoring system. And unfortunately for those auto-drafting, the ESPN pre-ranks and projections didn't align with our new scoring system.

      I went into the draft with the new system & my projections and drafted accordingly...it wouldn't be appropriate to change the scoring system part-way through the season.
      • Like Like x 2
    7. Rad_E_Cool
      Rad_E_Cool
      I think with the potential of bad games bringing negatives, it really adds some extra fun into it. What if your gun shooter is in a slump? Do you decide to bench him rather than play him and risk a negative score?

      What if you've got a player going up against an elite defence (team or player), that forces guys into sub-40% shooting and high turnovers? Do you bench him or hope that he can do enough with other facets of the game if he's gonna be forced into tough shots?

      These are much more fun dilemmas than just looking to see whose got a game that day and expecting points to be added. It also may decrease the efficacy of the strategy that I know I've used heaps in previous seasons of maximising games played by cycling through all weekly acquisitions streaming an active player for one of the spots - you could end up getting a negative score from the guy you bring in instead of just adding points. Some more interesting strategies involved, that's for sure.

      Interesting point for comparison, @stowie. I suppose the way I see it, player 1 uses 10 possessions (7 FGA & 3 TO) for 9 points scored (below average). Player 2 uses 9 possessions for 12 points scored (above average). Player 1 additionally facilitates 2 baskets, forces 5 FG misses for the opponents (BLK) and ends a defensive stand 4 times (DREB). Player 2 does the same with assists, forces 3 FG misses and ends just one defensive stand, but also keeps alive a possession twice (OREB). I did argue against the FT Miss score, as Player 1 missed an And-1 so still scored on that possession, but I do think Player 2 has a clearly more efficient game. Whether it's 40% better is debatable.
      • Like Like x 2
    8. Chris Whitey
      Chris Whitey
      Just watched Bucks game and as an owner of Bledsoe and Giannis was shocked to see they got the same fantasy score of 25.
      Fair enough Giannis almost quad doubled with turnovers but was still surprised.
      I know we made 10 small changes to the scoring system but am wondering people’s opinion on which change is most responsible for the lower scores? Is it the -2 for for field goals missed? Or purely a combination of making so many changes?
      Like someone said above it’s gonna be hard to stream the waiver wire this year! (Which might be a good thing)
      • Like Like x 1
    9. tasho
      tasho
      Shooting percentages seem to play a big role. Most poor scores have been tied to that. But I think the loss of points for 3 pointers, steals and blocks is having a big impact also.
      • Like Like x 3
    10. Chris Whitey
      Chris Whitey
      How do you sort the daily leaders?
      Struggling to find it :(
      Keeps reverting to the espn draft ranking order even when I click to sort by points.
      • Like Like x 1
    11. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      You're taking the most favourable look possible you can with those voting "stats". You can not include 3 votes that are basically "I'm just here" in your favour. So the most forgiving number you could say is 11/18 out of your 30 people, on a vote that was held in under three days from the first expression of interest post of the season.

      Point is, it can not be described as a majority and I agree with others about the scoring system needs to be reverted back next season.

      The biggest concern right now is wtf ESPN did to their UI. The Minnesota locker room looks more functional than this alpha build they've rolled out. I'd be for looking for alternative hosts if it doesn't improve.
    12. anthak
      anthak
      I agree, the website is causing a lot of concern for me too. I hope they can sort it out, because it’d be a shame to have to change to yahoo when there’s so much history of the leagues recorded in ESPN.

      Re your suggestion I chose the most favourable look possible. I actually thought 11/18 looked more favourable and I didn’t think it was fair to exclude the other three who actually voted. Did you notice I included the extra 3 votes in favour of keeping the old system as well? Nothing sinister going on.

      It was open for 3 days, but we still had about two thirds of the ~30 people vote. We had a lot to get through in setting the leagues all up and I didn’t really have time to stretch out the voting period any longer. I also wanted to get it agreed quickly to give everyone sufficient time to prepare for drafts with the scoring system known. Ideally, I would’ve got the post up earlier, but it took me too long to write it due to both real life issues as well as the modeling etc I was doing to determine the initial proposal.

      It also was not the first expression of interest post of the season.

      I’m not sure what you’re trying to achieve by nitpicking about these things.

      I get that you’re not happy with the new system and prefer last year’s system.
      Personally, I think the new system is working really well so far, and I encourage all of us to keep an open mind about it.

      I’m even wondering if the points system we use partly skews our views of what should be a good game and/or good score and I think we’ve kinda been conditioned by using the same (arguably flawed) system for so long that it’s making it more difficult to accept a new version. Im not sure about this, it’s just a thought I’ve been pondering.

      I believe it’ll be better in the long run to have a system based on strong rationale behind the values.

      I’ve had hopes of building this comp up and maybe even get some small prizes to offer each season.

      There’s a lot of critiscm of points leagues around the place, usually due to them not valuing efficiency and because scores just accumulate (like AFL DT ). I think we’ve addressed those issues really well with the new system.

      I think I might write a new post just to explain it all in more detail. ie why the values are what they are and how they relate to each other and what they mean etc. I hope that it will be beneficial for some.
    13. anthak
      anthak
      I can’t find it either.
      I’ve been using the players tab and showing all players and ranking by total fpts.... but that won’t work after today because some players will have played more than 1 game.
    14. anthak
      anthak
      Btw, lots of great discussion in here. I appreciate all of the views put forward.
      • Like Like x 2
    15. rodgo
      rodgo
      Righteo who is responsible for screwing up fantasy scoring? Put ya hands up? Dont tell me its more accurate or fairer or any other spin. Its about fun and the fun has been taken out of it. Players scoring negative numbers and score single digits when posting a tripple double. Common guys be serious......

      If a stud goes down your season is over because if you trade in multiple players to try make up the numbers you have no chance as they lucky to score double digits.
    16. anthak
      anthak
      Hey mate, it’s actually the other way around now. It’s brought the players closer together so it should be easier to replace a star. Just don’t pick a chucker! Lol
    17. Steve
      Steve
      Before every one jumps the gun about the scoring, let's just wait until we have a full season of data to review.

      Anthak and others have spent a lot of time and effort in reviewing the scoring system. Lets see how it pans out.
      • Like Like x 5
    18. HargyBear
      HargyBear
      Having the same issue! I don't think it can be done. Bloody strange
    19. crossy
      crossy
      Lebron and Javale Mcgee have the same fantasy points with one minute left, haha! I know what i'm voting for at seasons end!
      • Like Like x 1
    20. anthak
      anthak
      haha, maybe my draft selection of JaVale has been justified after just one game!

      Both LeBron and JaVale had good games tho, so Im not sure why its a big deal they scored similarly this game.
      • Like Like x 1

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