TS Fantasy NBA: 18/19 Draft Results/Comparisons

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

By anthak on Oct 16, 2018 at 11:09 PM
  1. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Fantastic to see we're all set for a new season of fantasy NBA here at TooSerious.
    In a late scramble, we ended up with 4 teams of 12 again! and even had an extra waiting in the wings, sorry @protraj keep us in mind for next season, hopefully we can get you into a league. It would be great to even expand to have more Division 2 leagues next season.

    For any of you who are new to this in any way, please feel free to ask any questions you have in the comments in the threads on this basketball forum.

    We have set up a thread for chatter throughout the season: HERE

    Opening night is upon us!

    We had all four drafts at the same time last Sunday night Australian time and they have thrown up some interesting results.
    All up we had 177 drafted players.
    In the list below, Ive given a value of 157 to any players who were undrafted in any particular league.
    Giannis went at #1 in three leagues with Anthony Davis getting the nod in the other. Somehow (presumably injury worries) AD slipped to #4 in one league!
    Harden and Durant were picked 3rd and 6th respectively, in all 4 leagues, whilst LeBron and KAT joined them to make up the consensus top 6.
    Harden and Durant were the only two players picked at the same spot in every league.
    Jordan Clarkson had the biggest std.dev due to being drafted 38th in Division 1, but outside the top 100 in all three other leagues!
    Olyniyk had the best ADP of players who went undrafted in at least one league: He didnt get drafted in Div 2, Con 1, but went as high as #103 in Div 2, Con 2.
    The best ADP out of players picked up in just one league, was Javale McGee who was picked at #88 in Premier (by me, and I still cant believe it, I even wrote in the draft straight after my pick that I couldnt believe I'd taken him so high lol)!
    The worst ADP from players picked in all four leagues was Thad Young whose ADP was 144.25.

    The biggest reaches (based on draft position in other leagues):
    LeBron James at 2 in Div 2 Con 2;
    CJ McCollum at 25 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Devin Booker at 27 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Gordan Hayward at 32 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Jordan Clarkson at 38 in Division 1;
    Rudy Gay at 57 in Premier Division;
    Harrison Barnes at 57 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Danilo Gallinari at 64 in Premier Division;
    De'Aaron Fox at 70 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Joe Ingles at 71 in Division 1;
    Evan Fournier at 74 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Markelle Fultz at 80 in Div 2 Con 2;
    JaVale McGee at 88 in Premier Division;
    JJ Redick at 89 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kelly Olynyk at 103 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Serge Ibaka at 104 in Div 2 Con 1.


    The biggest steals (based on draft position in other leagues):
    Brook Lopez at 156 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Kevin Knox at 126 in Premier Division;
    Jaylen Brown at 120 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Taurean Prince at 119 in Div 2 Con 1;
    Trae Young at 115 in Div 2 Con 2;
    TJ Warren at 115 in Premier Division;
    Jabari Parker at 110 in Division 1;
    D'Angelo Russell at 93 in Division 1;
    Jonas Valanciunas at 84 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Zach Lavine at 82 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Steve Adams at 76 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Ricky Rubio at 70 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Lou Williams at 67 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Hassan Whiteside at 65 in Division 1;
    DeAndre Jordan at 43 in Premier Division;
    Victor Oladipo at 27 in Div 2 Con 2;
    Joel Embiid at 20 in Division 1;
    Kyle Lowry at 19 in Premier Division;
    Russell Westbrook at 13 in Premier Division;
    Anthony Davis at 4 in Div 2 Con 2.


    Here is the overall list.
    The ones highlighted orange are picks 1.75x std.dev greater than the mean.
    The ones highlighted green are picks 1.75x std.dev less than the mean.

     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
    • Like Like x 7

Comments

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Oct 16, 2018.

  • Tags:
    1. crossy
      crossy
      I have him in div 2 mate ha ha
      • Like Like x 1
    2. rodgo
      rodgo
      I have McGee and Lebron. Im also loaded with efficient Centers...............................I Win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    3. Rad_E_Cool
      Rad_E_Cool
      LeBron's line - 26/12/6 on 56.3% (0-4 3pts), 8/9 from the line, 6 turnovers, 1 steal, 1 double-double.
      Last season his averages were 27.5/8.6/9.1 on 54.2% (1.8-5 3pts - 36.7%), 4.7/6.5 from the line (73.1%), 4.2 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks, 0.63 double-doubles. So not too out of the ordinary for him.

      JaVale's line - 13/8/1 on 83.3%, 3/4 from the line, 1 steal, 3 blocks, 0 turnovers.
      Last season he averaged 4.8/2.6/0.5 on 62.1%, 73.1% FTs (0.8 attempts), 0.9 blocks, 0.3 steals, 0.4 turnovers. So it's triple his points/boards/blocks/steals productivity and about a third better shooting. He's well above his output from last season and a very good game for him. I think it's probably sustainable, except the shooting.
      • Like Like x 1
    4. Jasmine
      Jasmine
      Tim Hardaway Jr - 24 points (10/23 FG, 3/9 3PT, 1/2 FT), 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 6 fouls for a total score of -8!!
    5. HEAVER
      HEAVER
      @ Jasmine - ESPN does a scoring adjustments at the end of the matchup when the player fouls out. You'll probably see the Disqualifications (DQ) as >1 contributing to the negative score.

      I had that last week with Jeremy Lamb fouling out and getting a Zero - but there was a score adjustment at the end of the matchup and I ended winning by a small margin (18 fpts)!!!

      But agreed that this new scoring system is wreaking havoc with the very wide discrepancies. There is a huge gap between the top 12 and the next 12.

      1st ranked is AD = 67.5fpts; 12th ranked is Vuc = 42.5fpts. That's a 25fpts difference.

      And then 13th ranked is Dame = 42fpts and 24th is LaVine = 37fpts. That's a 5fpts difference.

      So does our scoring actually reflect reality that AD is like almost worth 2nd rounders? I don't mind - I drafted AD with my 2nd pick :)
    6. bgt2110
      bgt2110
      The positions that ESPN have allocated players doesn't seem as diverse as previous years. To me anyways it looks like a lot of players have only been given the 1 position Eg. C and not the 2 like PF / C as in the past.
      No point using the waiver wire either because you can throw a blanket over 30 guys and get roughly the same result. Takes the interest out a lot i feel.
      • Like Like x 2
    7. Jmulldihno
      Jmulldihno
      My 2c is I tend to agree with the majority here in that the scoring system has probably skewed the other way too far and has drained a bit of the fun out of it.

      I like the idea of rewarding more efficient play and the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle moving forward. The -2 for a missed field goal is clearly too high and the decrease in points for the hustle stats is also too high given the scarcity of how many happen in a game and how much they count towards where a player is ranked. The points we used to get for DD and TD were silly as you already get the counting stats so was double dipping, and its makes sense to have pissed those off...

      Anth I like the fact in your reasoning for the scoring changes you referenced a real basketball game and how the changes reflect that. However this is fantasy ball and i think that the scarcity of some statistics should be factored in so that our system more closely mirrors the rankings that players are generally regarded as being.

      I had a little play and just the few changes of -1.5 for FGMI, 1.25 for 3'sM, 4 for Steals and 3 for blocks made a big difference.

      To reference some of the stat lines put up in this thread: (for reference AD is still the no.1 ranked player with averages of 66.7; 75.9; 89.3 (current system; my changes; old system)

      1. Klay's inefficient 14/4 from earlier this season goes from -6 to 1.8 (old system 11). Still shithouse as he really didn't play well, but softens the blow a bit with the decreased penalty for FGMI. His average also goes from 12.4 to 18.4 which i think is more representative of his play this season (again for reference old system would have been 25.4 average).

      2. The Bucks game where Giannis and Bledsoe both scored 25 FP. Stat lines below:

      STARTERS MIN FG 3PT FT OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS
      Giannis 35 9-21 0-3 7-12 3 15 18 8 0 1 8 5 +11 25 25 32 49
      Bledsoe 34 7-13 3-5 0-0 2 2 4 3 0 1 2 4 +4 17 25 29.8 37
      Stats in bold are fantasy points: Fantasy Points: CURRENT MINE OLD
      Not a huge change as the 8 turnovers kills Giannis, however a 25/8/18 just has to score more than a relatively efficient 17/3/4 and these changes reflect this.

      3. One more example would be D. Mitchell. He's obviously struggled a little bit from the floor to start the season, but is an average of 17.5 a true indication of his play this season given his season averages of 23.5 PPG 4 APG 3.3 RPG 1.5 SPG and 3.0 3PG? Granted he's shooting 40% from the field, but for a 2 guard anything over 46% is elite and i think this is the main issue with the new system in penalising too harshly on FGMI. For reference the old system would have him at 38.8 (probs a bit too high) with mine at 26.1.

      So this essay is a long winded way of saying that while the new system is a bit flawed the old one probably was as well, and i'm not saying my changes are the way to go either and will absolutely have their faults too, but a few tweaks could find a better balance between what we have and what we had.
      • Like Like x 6
    8. walesy
      walesy
      Personally, I'd like to blame the scoring system for me putting together the worst team in the history of TSNBA

      Can we tweak it so that all my players score, say, 30% more?
      • Like Like x 5
    9. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      I’ll (retrospectively) have what he’s having.
    10. bgt2110
      bgt2110
      Can't take a trick, Cousins gets a -7 for an ejection. Luckily he is sitting on IR lol
      • Like Like x 4
    11. bgt2110
      bgt2110
      Klay Thompson finally comes to life in the game against the bulls today. 10/14 from the 3 point line at half time.
      • Like Like x 1
    12. anthak
      anthak
      Whoa!
    13. anthak
      anthak
      I can’t belive he had 24 attempted threes in just 27 minutes! That’s so many
    14. bgt2110
      bgt2110
      Jimmy Butler you %^^&*
    15. stowie
      stowie
      Derrick Rose though! Never thought he'd produce something like that again!
      • Like Like x 2
    16. anthak
      anthak
      I just noticed that they’ve added an acquisition counter on the team page!
      Easier than trying to remember how many I’d done for the week.
      • Like Like x 1
    17. anthak
      anthak
      They’ve put it on the box score page too!
      • Like Like x 1
    18. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Anyone getting some wacky totals atm?
      I thought I was tracking around 900+ but now showing in the 600s...
    19. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Fixed
    20. costak
      costak

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