TS Fantasy NBA: 18/19 settings

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Sep 24, 2018.

By anthak on Sep 24, 2018 at 12:30 AM
  1. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    So far we've had 30 of last years players re-commit, and another one express interest who didnt play last season. We are still yet to hear from 18 of last season's players.

    Following the promotions and relegations from last season, this is how our leagues should look this season, assuming everyone comes back:

    Premier League:
    @anthak @karlos @yumcha @HEAVER @stowie @costak @walesy @bgt2110 @G-Train @ddsaints @Auron @LiQuiD_SiXx

    Division 1:
    @Steve @rodgo @Rev @Lethal @Don_Cottagers @dabombers @Rad_E_Cool @tyze1 @Bearfly @tasho @Lano24 @smokinjoemisiti

    Division 2, Conference 1:
    @Mick @Belmont383 @ViQBoZ @Chris White @HargyBear @nicksnow @The Royals @wateman @Jasmine @port_leschenault @OutKast_au @maggots

    Division 2, Conference 2:
    @headmandude @doolz @Peaches @Sparks @Danners @Len @crossy @Trav00 @macca118 @Jmulldihno @Emes @MACCA2509

    Make sure to confirm you want to keep playing in one of these threads.

    We've got one new player expressed interest too:
    @That KI Guy who has played previously, but not last season.

    I propose we keep the promotions and relegation system the same this season. However if we end up with another league we'll need to adjust it, so we'll wait and see on that.

    DRAFT
    Ive set the draft for Sunday 14th October.
    We usually hold it at 9:30pm on a Sunday night, however its not allowing that timeslot this season. We can have it any time of the day except between 4:45pm and 11pm. I'll set up a poll at some stage, but what are all of your initial thoughts on the best time?

    SCORING
    I would like to propose some minor changes to our scoring. As a SuperCoach site, I find it strange that we don't have a scoring system for NBA that more accurately reflects the impact players have on games of basketball. It has grated me for a fair while that scoring buckets (regardless of efficiency) and volume shooting has such a big influence in our system.

    For our first season, back in 2010, we attempted to come up with a scoring system that reflected the impact players had on games, however there were lots of us that season who weren't happy that wings weren't as relevant as PGs and bigs. So, we adjusted the scoring setup for season 2 to reward stats that wings were getting, and the main outcome of that has been that our scoring rewards volume shooters... Often times volume shooters negatively impact their team in real life, but we value them. This doesn't sit well with me.

    I would like to have a methodology for the values we place on stats, so that there is reasoning behind it all.

    @Rad_E_Cool wrote some awesome comments in a thread back in 2013 about our scoring, and with Walesy's help, we've been able to find them. His comments are a fair bit to take in all at once, so Im not going to post it all here, however I'm going to now propose a new scoring system, some of which is similar to what Rad proposed back in 2013, and I will steal some of his rationale here now to explain some of the reasoning behind the values i have settled on...

    Firstly, this is what our system was last season:

    Field Goals Made (FGM): 1
    Field Goals Missed (FGMI): -1
    Free Throws Made (FTM): 1
    Free Throws Missed (FTMI): -2
    Three Pointers Made (3PM): 2
    Offensive Rebounds (OREB): 2
    Defensive Rebounds (DREB): 1
    Assists (AST): 2
    Steals (STL): 5
    Blocks (BLK): 4
    Turnovers (TO): -2
    Ejections (EJ): -10
    Flagrant Fouls (FF): -4
    Technical Fouls (TF): -3
    Disqualifications (DQ): -5
    Double Doubles (DD): 4
    Triple Doubles (TD): 10
    Quadruple Doubles (QD): 50
    Points (PTS): 1
    Team Wins (TW): 1

    ...
    My proposal is based loosely around possessions. The amount of possessions in each game is pretty similar, given the 48 minutes per game and the 24 second shot clock. The way a team wins a game of basketball is they use their possessions efficiently (shoot well), force their opponent to use them inefficiently (blocks and defense, to force bad shots), and gain more possessions than their opponent (steals, rebounds and taking care of the ball).

    When you have the ball, your possession ends when you get a turnover or shoot the ball (whether you score or miss). I'll cover the shooting aspect later. Following a missed shot, it is most likely the defensive team wins the rebound. Many defensive rebounds are really soft/easy and I've allocated them just one point, however the offensive team has an opportunity to win the ball back by getting an O-board. Therefore an offensive rebound is the reverse of a turnover, one wins a possession, one finishes a possession. It is the same considering steals and turnovers. Therefore, I have allocated turnovers, steals and offensive rebounds all the same relative value, balancing each other out. Furthermore, a block with a defensive rebound has the same outcome as a steal and therefore (given a def reb =1) I have kept a block 1 point less than a steal.

    I have reduced the value for double doubles and triple doubles because they dont really mean anything. The stat that wins the double/triple double is no more valuable than any of the other stats and if a player is good enough to get a double/triple double then they are getting good points for the game anyway, even without the bonus. I have halved their values. The main reasons I propose to keep them at all are because they are widely regarded milestones denoting a good game, and it is fun to watch your player hoping they get to the milestone. I have kept quad dubs at 50 though! because it would be friggin awesome if anyone got there again...

    Fouls are mostly the same. I have reduced the penalty for ejections because I feel -10 was too harsh for a player already getting negative points for the techs/flagrants and missing out on stats from not playing the remainder of the game. In saying that, I do still think there should be a points penalty for getting kicked out of the stadium. Ive increased the penalty for flagrant fouls, mainly because they're far worse than techs. Both are basically for unsportsmanlike conduct not in the spirit of the game, however techs only result in one FT to the opposition, whereas flagrants result in two free throws as well as possession to the opposition, and thus should receive a greater points penalty.

    Before I move onto shooting efficiency, I havent mentioned assists or team wins. I propose to keep assists at 2, they help your team win and are worth less than scoring the basket, so I think its fair. Team wins, I propose to move up to a value of 2. There isnt any other way to measure the players on the winning team who have contributed to the win without any counting stats. Even if they have played poorly, their team has still won, which is the aim of the game, and who knows, maybe they didnt look to play well, but their talk on D helped create a crucial stop that helped win the game... We will never know for sure, but a value of 2 isnt huge anyway.

    Assigning values for shooting was very difficult and took me so long to work out. I tried many different variations of values for attempts, misses, makes and points and have settled somewhere that isnt perfect but is as close as I can get it in my view.

    Last season, league averages for shooting %s were: FG%: 46%, 3P%: 36.2%, FT%: 76.7%, which is all fairly similar to previous seasons too.

    In my proposal, I have set it up so that a player will score 1 fantasy point per actual point at the following %s: 50%2FG, 33.3%3FG, & 75%FT. If they shoot worse than those %s they will score less than 1 fantasy point per point; and if they shoot better then these %s they will score more than 1 fantasy point per point. They will score 0 fantasy points per point at the following %s: 25%2FG, 16.6%3FG, & 60%FT. If they shoot worse than those percentages, they will score negative fantasy points. All of that, I'm fairly happy with, however I couldnt balance it out for if they shoot up near 100%. 100% 2 pointers will score 1.5 fpts per point, 100% 3 pointers will score 1.66 fpts per point, & 100% FTs will score 2 fpts per point. All in all, its actually not that different to how we had it, however I think this will be better. It still benefits 3 point shooters, however not as much.

    Ive ended up going with a system that definitely rewards the more efficient scorers and doesn't suit volume chuckers as much as we had it in previous seasons, but its also still fairly similar. With the increase to offensive rebounds and more harsh penalty for turnovers, it all balances out nicely.

    Here is my proposed scoring system:

    Field Goals Made (FGM): 1
    Field Goals Missed (FGMI): -1
    Free Throws Made (FTM): 1
    Free Throws Missed (FTMI): -3
    Three Pointers Made (3PM): 1
    Offensive Rebounds (OREB): 4
    Defensive Rebounds (DREB): 1
    Assists (AST): 2
    Steals (STL): 4
    Blocks (BLK): 3
    Turnovers (TO): -4
    Ejections (EJ): -5
    Flagrant Fouls (FF): -5
    Technical Fouls (TF): -3
    Disqualifications (DQ): -5
    Double Doubles (DD): 2
    Triple Doubles (TD): 5
    Quadruple Doubles (QD): 50
    Points (PTS): 1
    Team Wins (TW): 2

    .......
    Here is a list of the top 15 players, based on last season's stats and this new scoring system, ranked by average fpts:
    Davis, LeBron, Harden, Giannis, KAT, Russ, AD, Jokic, Curry, LMA, DMC, KD, Lillard, Butler, CP.


    I'm hoping we can just agree on this quickly and move onto setting up the leagues etc, however please all let us know your thoughts and please speak up if you object in any way.

    I have set up a poll, which will only be open for the next three days, until midnight on Wednesday night.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
?

Do you agree with the proposed scoring changes?

Poll closed Sep 27, 2018.
  1. Yes, I agree

    7 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. I prefer to keep it the same as last season

    7 vote(s)
    33.3%
  3. I would prefer a different scoring system (please comment)

    4 vote(s)
    19.0%
  4. I dont mind either way

    3 vote(s)
    14.3%

Comments

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by anthak, Sep 24, 2018.

    1. dabombers
      dabombers
      Hey Ant,
      Cudos on all the work you have done and I know you will do.....

      I will support any changes the group agrees to...And what you guys sort out will be far above the analysis I can currently give or understand..
    2. Don_Cottagers
      Don_Cottagers
      Love your work, Ant.

      I agree with the original comment from Rad_E_Cool, but otherwise think the changes sound good.

      On the changes, it has particularly annoyed me for a while that double-doubles and triple-doubles are worth anything, and I have been at the point of hating discussions around them since otherwise competent basketball minds were unable to focus on anything else during the Westbrook MVP season.

      With all the advanced metrics we have, I have never understood why having 10-10-10 was better than having 12-9-9. They are an outdated stat and should be worth nothing.

      In relation to the draft time, I suggest as late on Sunday afternoon as possible. 11:00pm and later is too late on a Sunday for the Monday-Friday, 9-to-5ers among us.
      • Like Like x 3
    3. Steve
      Steve
      I wonder why ESPN changed the time slots for the draft again?

      Surely they would realise by now that NBA is huge right around the world and would want as much traffic on their site as possible. By restricting the time slots available it makes it harder for people to participate. Should be open all day.

      I am ok with the draft time but I understand it will impact on other people.
      • Like Like x 2
    4. Len
      Len
      I'm not sure I can manage it, sober at 11pm is a lot to ask
    5. dabombers
      dabombers
      Are you telling me we were supposed to do our drafts sober!!!!
      • Like Like x 2
    6. anthak
      anthak
      Some very good points you’ve made here mate!
    7. anthak
      anthak
      21 is a good number of people who have voted in the poll so far.

      3 have voted that they dont mind.
      11 have voted to change the scoring.
      7 have voted to keep same as last season.

      4 of the 11 who want it changed have left comments about alternative ideas.

      Ive been trying to work out a compromise that takes into consideration the comments in this thread.

      It's difficult because I was initially hoping for a systematic approach to determining the values for each stat (most of them anyway), but it looks like we're gonna have to move away from that to an extent. But I think it'll be ok.

      I wont post anything yet because the poll is still open. I'll try to sort it out tomorrow.
    8. anthak
      anthak
      At the closing time, the poll results remained the same as posted here.

      I'll post again shortly with a proposed way forward.
    9. anthak
      anthak
      Based on the poll results and the feedback given, this is where Ive settled (if changed, last years value in bold):

      Field Goals Made (FGM): 1
      Field Goals Missed (FGMI): -2 (-1)
      Free Throws Made (FTM): 1
      Free Throws Missed (FTMI): -2
      Three Pointers Made (3PM): 1 (2)
      Offensive Rebounds (OREB): 2
      Defensive Rebounds (DREB): 1
      Assists (AST): 2
      Steals (STL): 3 (5)
      Blocks (BLK): 2 (4)
      Turnovers (TO): -3 (-2)
      Ejections (EJ): -5 (-10)
      Flagrant Fouls (FF): -4
      Technical Fouls (TF): -2 (-3)
      Disqualifications (DQ): -5
      Double Doubles (DD): 1 (4)
      Triple Doubles (TD): 2 (10)
      Quadruple Doubles (QD): 50
      Points (PTS): 1
      Team Wins (TW): 2 (1)

      Basically, from the proposal I put forward a few days ago, I have adjusted it to reduce the impact of offensive boards back to same as last season, but because of that, I have also dropped steals and turnovers to be closer to the offensive board rating, but without dropping blocks below oboards. I have also increased missed FG to be the reverse of o-boards so that there is no benefit for a player missing a layup and getting their own rebound. This is something Id been toying with anyway because a missed shot is giving up a possession as well. It doesnt mess up our shooting values, because Ive realised they were out of whack anyway, given I was going by FG% rather than 2pt%.

      I have also listened to feedback and reduced trip dubs even further, and also reduced the penalty for missed FTs back to what we had it last season.

      Given the scores will be lower due to a number of metrics dropping, I have also dropped flagrants back to last years value and techs down to half a flagrant.

      I'm happy with where this has ended up.

      This is the top 18 players based on average fpts with last season's stats under this new system:
      Davis 47.9
      Lebron 46.8
      harden 45.6
      Giannis 43.4
      Curry 41.8
      KAT 41.4
      Westbrook 40.4
      Durant 40.3
      Jokic 39.3
      Boogie 38.7
      Drummond 37.8
      CP 37.6
      Lillard 37.5
      Butler 37.2
      LMA 34.7
      Simmons 34.6
      Kyrie 33.2
      Oladipo 32.6
      • Like Like x 2
    10. anthak
      anthak
      If anyone has any major objections to the new proposal posted just now, then please let us know within 24 hours, by 2pm AEST Friday 28/9.

      If anyone objects within this timeframe, I will set up a new poll so that everyone can vote again.

      Please keep in mind though that it is difficult to please everyone, so we all probably need to concede on some aspects.

      If no objections by 2pm tomorrow, then we will run with this new system for this upcoming season and see how it goes.
    11. Len
      Len
      Hi mate,
      We have found the outcomes to be almost impossible to model for the whole league for 2019.
      I can't access the league where these outcomes are known.
      Is it possible for you to post a data dump of the 2018 outcomes for the full premier league you have changed so we can draft intelligently?
      • Like Like x 1
    12. anthak
      anthak
      @Rad_E_Cool had this same idea and told me in a PM that he’d try to put a spreadsheet together over the weekend to provide for everyone.

      Also, assuming no objections today, I’ll be adjusting all leagues to the new scoring system at around 2pm today. The players tab will then automatically reflect the new scoring for everyone.
      • Like Like x 1
    13. anthak
      anthak
    14. Len
      Len
      Hi mate, is the draft order listed the final one?
    15. Rad_E_Cool
      Rad_E_Cool
      Please see the Top 250 players from last season under the new scoring format here. I've taken the info from the "Players" section of the League page, but added in the Games played and Minutes for each entry, so that you are able to use it to project things for the upcoming season.
      Let me know if there's any issues with being able to view or copy this table.
      • Like Like x 1
    16. anthak
      anthak
      No it’s not
    17. Len
      Len
      Forgive my ignorance but when does that happen?
      Once leagues (and league sizes) are confirmed?
      • Like Like x 1
    18. anthak
      anthak
      yeah thats right. We need to work out who is in which league first and then we set the draft order.
      • Like Like x 1
    19. anthak
      anthak
      Im hoping to have the leagues set up by the end of the upcoming weekend, so hopefully have the draft order set around then too.
      • Like Like x 1

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