What I'm doing is this: have a trade planned out...whether it be a sideways/downgrade/MPP swap or even bench until trade next week. Then just wait right up until lockout if your able to be at a computer. We will get to know the subs and late changes before lockout...extremely lucky Fyfe's game is on Friday! Then if he's sub or late withdrawal, you can quickly make the move you had planned...taking a lot of stress away.
With Fyfe, it is management (or awareness) of risk. There are two risks: 1 - His shoulder goes again. Teams will test his shoulder, he'll be belted in contests, he'll be crunched in tackles. If his shoulder can pop out once in a tackle, it can go again (and is likely to). Obviously the risk is then that he is out of a game with fewer points, and then will be out for a period of time if he has surgery. 2 - Second risk is more insidious - that he simply doesn't score as much because he is "rested" in the forward pocket or simply doesn't put himself into as many reckless contests due to the small voice in the back of his head preaching self-preservation. And don't for a second tell me that there won't be a voice in the back of his head muttering even the smallest things of doubt. This is the slow drip of him scoring 70-80 points rather than 100-110. Thing is, he, like Broughton, might come out and hit a 110 this week and all those holding him will go: "Victory!" But it isn't about the one week victories, it is about the season long ones. If Broughton reverts to his 60s this week those that kept him will be wondering again. Same with Fyfe - what happens if he gets 110 this week, then hits a 50 next week or gets injured? There's another $100K in lost value and erhaps a trade anyway. So the risks are there - we're all aware of them, its what we do with them.
What about a third risk chris? That being the return of Mundy and Barlow may lessen his share of the pie. I doubt 3 freo mids will average over 100.
Just to add to that - Fremantle and Ross Lyon have said quite clearly that if the shoulder goes again, he will not be risked. Thus operation, thus out for a spell. So the risk is - 19 more rounds of "no shoulder pops" for Fyfe when his shoulders are already dodgy. I might be just naturally risk averse, but God, that is a massive risk.
Or the 4th risk, he continues on like last year and dominates, and you have to trade him back in at some point!
Swert - that's a fair call. Add in Mzungu and Pavlich as well. Thing with Fyfe is - he can actually score and score well from a half forward flank/wing. So that is maybe a slightly lesser concern. As a disclaimer - I'm leaning well towards trading Fyfe out now, bringing Barlow in and pocketing 80K for a future upgrade. So I hope that Barlow continues getting his share of the pie as well!!
General - that's the status quo. In other words, all things being equal, Fyfe owners would've expected him to play well and continue to score. My contention is that all things aren't equal. He is one shoulder knock away from being operated on. It is Fyfe himself who has said he is fit to play - Ross Lyon's public comments have been much more circumspect. And Lyon is the one who has said that if the shoulder goes again, he'll be telling Fyfe to get the operation. He may play this week, bash out 100 and all those who held him rejoice. But if he comes out the week after, gets 30 and does his shoulder again, that isn't a long term win. The risk is there, plain to see. Its just a matter of whether you like to play on the edge and take the risk or not. Each to their own in that regard.
Agreed Chris, although the risk has been there since he started playing AFL. He has always been one bump away from a reco, but has been able to churn out consistent scores even when getting "injured". In my book, his past history mitigates that risk slightly. There are obvious risks with both scenario's and that is the big dilemma with this decision. Would be much easier if there was a fwd that was consistently churning out large numbers that you could trade to (assuming of course that you already have Buddy).
General - spot on re the forwards. I don't know about you, but my forward line is a patchwork quilt of mix and match right now - best performing forward at the moment is the just traded in Sidebottom, followed by Stanley and Hale!! Strange strange stuff. Those that went with 4 premium mids to start this year might've been on the money.
Yep, correct again Chris. If Fyfe goes, Stanley comes in and McCarthy goes to M. Murphy. There will be a bit of value in the fwd's when Stevie J, ROK and Beams all bottom out. Stanley may then be a straight swap or alternatively a nice little F8 at the end of the year.
I'm going to keep him if named, and it looks like he will be. Friday night game does make this all the easier. We've seen with Armfield that injuries can look a lot worse than they are.
General - massive number of premium forwards spudding it right now. I thought a couple of weeks ago that there might be a changing of the guard among "premium" backs ... reckon the forward situation is even cloudier right now. Just hard to get a read on any of them really - and the price drops have been (and will be) massive.
@General-Thats my only concern is that if i do choose Stanley over Fyfe and not a premium i will be forced in the future to make another trade to bring in a premium for Fyfe. Doing this however does allow me to upgrade a rookie to Murphy earlier than expected but does this net me more points? So the way i gotta look at it is like this...Do i trade in Stanley for Fyfe, pocketing extra cash to get Murphy for a rookie or do i trade in the likes of Boomer, Pav, Roughy, St.Nick etc and have them set as my premium for the remainder of the year and wait a few weeks to bring in Murphy(When my rookies have appreciated nicely) saving me a premium upgrade trade later in the year but possibly costing me points in the short term? This is doing my head in!!! What do people think would be most beneficial? Is the gap of points between Stanley and say Boomer or roughy going to be greater than Shiel and Murphy?
Not thinking of trading Shiel at all General, but if i do pick up Murphy Shiel will have to sit on the pine and thus will be a non scorer. That is why i wanted to get someones thoughts on who to choose keeping in mind who is more likely to net me the most points from the two options. Is it Stanley and Murphy that will get me more points, or a Boomer Harvey,Roughy(prem fwd) and Shiel that will gain me the most points???
NWG.....Stanley/Murphy in a landslide.....but you still have to evaluate WHEN to do the trade, thats the tricky part.
Do i trade in Stanley for Fyfe, pocketing extra cash to get Murphy for a rookie or do i trade in the likes of Boomer, Pav, Roughy, St.Nick etc and have them set as my premium for the remainder of the year and wait a few weeks to bring in Murphy(When my rookies have appreciated nicely) if i do choose Stanley over Fyfe and not a premium i will be forced in the future to make another trade to bring in a premium for Fyfe. Stanley/Murphy will, for now, get you the most points......but at what cost ~ an unripe rookie traded up already, plus the trade again of Stanley up to a prem. Just saying that yes....stan/murphy are the better option now ~ but I think the cost later on is prohibitive. Its my opinion that if you decide to trade Fyfe ~ then he ONLY goes to another keeper ~ not down. Its a one trade LTI (even if it isnt a true LTI for now)
Simonoz, what clouds that option though is the fact that there are NO good forward options available. There are plenty of fwd premiums who will drop significantly over the next couple of week. Stanley will increase a fair bit as well and the sooner you have 6 gun mids the better.