Best Buys Round 7

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, May 10, 2018.

By port_leschenault on May 10, 2018 at 12:43 PM
  1. port_leschenault

    port_leschenault Administrator Staff Member

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    Upgrade season is well under way so lets jump into it. This week I think we should all be focusing on the usual one up/one down trading strategy but remember to consider your list situation.

    Before you begin, a plug for @The_Swert post on fallen premiums. Well researched and worth a read as you consider who you need to bring in this season.

    BEST BUY OF THE WEEK
    [​IMG]
    Matt Crouch ADE Mid $533,400 BE 80 Ave 95 Bye 14
    Lots of good candidates this week but Crouch is the player in focus this week. We know he can score huge and 2 weeks of positive scoring after his injury indicates he's over any concerns there. As his 51 is cycled out of his price he's never going to be cheaper. Also important to consider is that based on the last two seasons he gets better the longer the season goes on (84.7 and 98.5 pre bye average in '16 and '17 respectively: 100.8 and 125.2 average post byes). That's an amazing difference and even if he doesn't quite match that again it at least shows he's the durable Crouch brother and less likely to break down again. Only thing not to like is his bye. Good to also note that even if he has a big week should still be cheap next round.

    DEFENDERS

    James Sicily HAW $498,000 BE 14 Ave 113 Bye 12
    Almost the Best Buy, last week's Smokey by KI Guy striked out on his own with a big hitting 145. All his scores bar one have been over 110. He's likely to keep that high fluctuation but he's shaping up as a must have and is a under $500k defender you can swing forward. Bringing him in last week was a stroke of genius, bringing him in this week is likely your last chance at getting him at a reasonable price.

    Shannon Hurn WCE $483,000 BE 39 Ave 103 Bye 12
    The evergreen defender is still relatively cheap even after another ton. He just keeps delivering and is the main beneficiary of the Eagles start to the season. I'd prefer Yeo (who's playing mostly midfield) but he's $50k more expensive but both are good gets having their bye in Rd 12.

    Jimmy Webster STK $464,800 BE 46 Ave 100 Bye 14
    Is this real or just fantasy? Caught in a Saints side, who knows what's reality. Benefits from no Roberton and Savage playing a different role but not betting on it being sustainable with better options out there. Super POD pick.

    Heath Shaw GWS $439,000 BE 62 Ave 91 Bye 13
    Not lighting it up but he's being super consistent and out of those around 90avg I trust him more than most of the rest so if you need a cheap premium Shaw's the guy.

    Michael Hibberd ESS $436,900 BE Ave 81 Bye 13

    Time to get on board likes it's February 1 in the year 2018 all over again. Scores of 96 and 99 in last two weeks signal a change in form for his patient owners and those on the look out to bring in value down back. All the usual risks but now at a discount, now or next week the time to jump on.

    Other Top Premiums (most of these guys are needed so strongly consider)
    Jeremy Howe COL $532,600 BE 32 Ave 94 Bye 13
    Alex Rance RIC $469,100 BE 89 Ave 92 Bye 14
    Elliot Yeo WCE $532,600 BE 96 Ave 101 Bye 12
    Rory Laird ADE $569,900 BE 104 Ave 117 Bye 14
    Michael Hurley ESS $547,800 BE 109 Ave 104 Bye 13
    Kade Simpson CAR $520,400 BE 128 Ave 107 Bye 12


    MIDFIELDERS

    Jackson Macrae WBD Mid $ BE Ave Bye 12
    Going gangbusters as the top ranked player in the game and making me look like a fool as he continues to produce scores like his middle name is Dangerwoodlett. He's going to be worth $700k in a few weeks, if you don't have him and want him, get on board while you can and a prioritise this week ahead of Danger (Things you never thought you'd say during preseason for $20, Alex).

    Patrick Dangerfield GEE Mid $619,800 BE 149 Ave 112 Bye 14
    Speaking of Danger, now is the time to start thinking of bringing him in and those already on the Macrae-train are perfectly situated here to make him their next mid prem upgrade. Can wait a week or two more if needed as he may drop even closer to $600k, which amazing price to get Danger at, but is the time to start putting him in your plans. To think, if he finishes the season with a sub 120 average he's going to be in all our teams at the start of next year too.

    Lachie Neale FRE Mid $ BE Ave Bye 14

    Don't like Crouch, Macrae is too expensive and you're waiting on Danger? You must have the zeal for Neale! Erm. This guy just keeps finding ways to score and has been as solid a producer over the years as they come. Fyfe will always get the attention so if you're looking for someone to set and forget, it's Neale.

    Josh P. Kennedy SYD Mid $473,500 BE -8 Ave 95 Bye 14
    Want to ride the rollercoaster? Not convinced myself but with a monster 151 last week and 125 before he actually has a negative breakeven so he's going to jump back up in price and presents value. We've seen what his bottom looks like too so buyer beware.

    Tom Mitchell HAW Mid $587,900 BE 80 Ave 126 Bye 12
    Third best player in the game. Currently bottomed out $65k cheaper than his starting place. 41% of players don't have him. Wonder if this is the week they are holding out for?

    Watchlist/Others
    Joel Selwood GEE $554,700 BE 57 Avg 114 Bye 14
    Adam Treloar COL $605,900 BE 84 Avg 115 Bye 13
    Patrick Cripps CAR $593,900 BE 99 Avg 117 Bye 12
    Zac Merrett ESS $503,700 BE 102 Avg 81 Bye 13
    Clayton Oliver MEL $559,900 BE 104 113 Avg Bye 13
    Nat Fyfe FRE $644,400 BE 109 Avg 123 Bye 14
    Stephen Coniglio GWS $524,800 BE 140 Avg 109 Bye 13
    Scott Pendlebury COL $550,700 BE 141 Avg 103 Bye 13
    Josh Kelly GWS $602,400 BE 142 Avg 105 Bye 13 (inj - 1wk)
    Dusty Martin RIC $564,600 BE 145 Avg 114 Bye 14

    RUCKS


    Max Gawn MEL $645,100 BE 70 Ave 130 Bye 13
    Brodie Grundy COL $613,700 BE 122 Ave 124 Bye 13

    Lumped together because they're the top two rucks this season so straightforward about who your first priorities here should be if looking for rucks.

    Stefan Martin BRI $525,900 BE 92 Ave 104 Bye 13

    You want the cheaper option and can't wait for Nic Nat (hold!) to come back so go with the guy with more proven scoring history than Callum Sinclair.

    Callum Sinclair SYD $520,000 BE 51 Ave 108 Bye 14
    Go with Sinclair then if you want the Rd 14 bye and can't wait for Nic Nat (hold!)

    FORWARDS


    Robbie Gray PTA $574,700 BE 130 Ave 115 Bye 10
    Still the top forward so looking like the must have. If you don't have him look to bring him in. Could potentially wait a week if you don't like his matchup against the Crows but he's unlikely to get cheaper here on out and the closer to they China game the more waiting until after bye becomes a factor.

    Toby McLean WBD $524,600 BE 40 Ave 111 Bye 12
    The other star of the Bulldogs midfield this year who hit his highest score of the season last round. Only 1 score below 90 and with no Liber, Bont carrying a knock, he's not in any danger of competition. Must have who's going to be priced out of getting him soon.

    Mitch Robinson BRI $496,500 BE 51 Ave 102 Bye 13
    5 tons and no scores lower than 80, sufficed to say Robbo is back baby and shaping up to have his best season since 2015, or ever if he keeps this scoring up so definitely needs to be in the talk to bring into our teams. A rare highlight in a dour Brisbane team.

    Jesse Hogan MEL $445,000 BE 86 Ave 99 Bye 13
    Shaping up to either be the next Buddy or Kennedy, his scores are boosted by his time running in the midfield but like a lot of KPF, if he's stuck forward having little impact his scores are going to be low. Consider, but still just one I'm watching.

    Justin Westhoff PTA $526,300 BE 66 Ave 108 Bye 10
    Not as must have as Gray and his scoring is role dependant so may just want to wait until byes but consider strongly as he will always be a POD.

    Watchlist/Others
    Brett Delidio GWS $473,500 BE 4 Ave 95 Bye 13 (inj - 1wk)
    Devon Smith ESS $456,600 BE 59 Ave 93 Bye 13
    Travis Boak PTA $477,900 BE 67 Ave 96 Bye 10
    Isaac Heeney SYD $547,100 BE 128 Ave 106 Bye 14
    David Mundy FRE $496,700 BE 130 Ave 96 Bye 14
    Toby Greene GWS $514,600 BE 143 Ave 93 Bye 13 (inj - unknown)
    Sam Menegola GEE $528,000 BE 144 Ave 95 Bye 14
    Lance Franklin SYD $514,200 BE 145 Ave 103 Bye 14 (info is out 1 more week)


    ROOKIES

    Charlie Spargo MEL F/M $117,300 BE -93 Ave 80
    There's two top rookies this week and Spargo looks the best out of him and Ronke. Doesn't have to get a lot of it to score ok, can kick a goal as well which helps. His role in the team should be more secure and with the valuable M/F dpp he's perfect to slot into your mids to open that up if you haven't got someone there already.

    Ben Ronke SYD Fwd $123,900 BE -88 Ave 79
    A great debut for the rookie has meant his breakeven is super high like Spargo. Job security is a worry with a few big names yet to come back for Sydney but Horse isn't afraid of blooding youngsters. Only available in the forward line so make sure he suits your setup if looking to get him.

    Oscar McInerney BRI Ruc $123,900 BE -49 Ave 60
    Seems to have replaced Smith as backup to Martin and with his ability to mark and kick goals could stay in the Lions side for a while. Being a mature-ager helps. A good downgrade target for English, likely better than Crossley who should be on the bubble next week.

    Kobe Mutch ESS Mid $123,900 BE -48 Ave 59
    Outside mid who doesn't have good disposal efficiency when he gets it but isn't the worst selection if needing a mid line rookie. Bombers look like they're rotating the youngsters so I'd be wary and with Daniher out there could be a shuffle of players moved about to cover loss.

    Flynn Appleby COL Def $121,900 BE -46 Ave 58
    If you need a defensive rookie this week this is your guy, yet another Maggies rebounding defender, but prospects don't look good and his ceiling doesn't seem very high.

    James Worpel HAW Mid $117,300 BE -31 Ave 49
    Aidyn Johnson PTA Fws $199,700 BE -22 Ave 68
    Nicholas Shipley GWS Mid $117,300 BE 18 Ave 24
    Jack Petruccelle WCE F/M $117,300 BE 21 Ave 23

    Rookie Watch List
    Brad Scheer GCS Fwd $159400 69
    Brayden Crossley GCS Ruc $117,300 65
    Lachlan Keeffe GWS F/D $123,900 51 (Sicily loophole!)
    Matthew Eagles BRI Def $123,900 48
    Charlie Ballard GCS F/M $117,300 33

    Roast of the Week

    Jack Billings and Christian Petracca
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
    • Like Like x 12

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by port_leschenault, May 10, 2018.

  • Tags:
    1. stowie
      stowie
      Thanks @port_leschenault for a nice write up.

      Wondering if any Melbourne people can talk about Angus Brayshaw? Only saw a little bit of the game last week but he seemed to be spending a lot of time in the MID with the most dominant ruck getting around at the moment.

      Melbourne also seems to have a decent fixture moving forward:
      8 Suns
      9 Blues
      10 Crows
      11 Dogs
      12 Pies
      13 BYE
      14 Port
      15 Saints
      16 Freo
      17 Dogs

      Worth a look at 355k?
    2. graeme
      graeme
      Jack Petruccelle WCE F/M $117,300 BE 21 Ave 23 is apparently out with an ankle problem - not on the LTI list yet.
      The eagles website notes "Sudanese speedster Tarir Bayok has been upgraded to the West Coast Eagles senior list after joining the Eagles as a Category B Rookie in 2016." and "Bayok will travel to Sydney ahead of round eight as an emergency for the Eagles' clash with Greater Western Sydney."
    3. Len
      Len
      Thanks @port_leschenault will digest properly when the teams come out, but appreicate the effort, and agree 100% on this weeks BOTR
    4. walesy
      walesy
      God I love this thread. I'm *so* lost without it!! :D
      • Like Like x 2
    5. Owen
      Owen
      Buddy out again. Damn it.
    6. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      I feel ya pain Owen, been carrying him and Dildo neither of which are back obviously and I was also 90% sure of my trades this week until now.
      Interested to know if you'll hold again or look to trade, I'm really unsure atm.
      • Like Like x 1
    7. Owen
      Owen
      I'm thinking of trading him now, bringing Spargo in for him, Christensen out, Sicily forward and Yeo in. I might trade him back in after a couple of weeks depending on his form. This also leaves me having to start one of Spargo/Higgins/English, but also leaves me with $300K that I can use next week to upgrade Jaeger and one of Murray/Finlayson/Naughton to two keepers.
      Last edited: May 10, 2018
    8. benny01
      benny01
      I was all set to bring in M.Crouch this week. After reading the article I'm going to go with McLean. It suits my bye structure so much better.
      • Like Like x 2
    9. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Bravo @port_leschenault , great stuff

      I was all set to hold Buddy but now second guessing.
      Certainly the messages coming out of Sydney aren't selling a return soon.
      Top 6 is less likely now and even top 10 is rocky if he finishes as a 95-100 player.
      I didn't take my own Sicily smokie last week, but will probably jump on now.

      or.....Jack Darling anyone ? (BE 16, Avg 100)
    10. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Thanks all.

      Yeah looks like Franklin is out and even when he comes back we have to wait until he bottoms out before getting him. Doesn't help his owners though obviously, I'd only try to trade him if trying to avoid a donut.

      For ORFFF's sake I hope Darling keeps it up but with JJK backI think he's going to start scoring big again which may mean Darling's scores suffer.

      Also the concern with WCE players I didn't really mention with any of them is that they're heading into a tough patch of games. Be interesting to see how their form holds up through it.
      • Like Like x 1
    11. benny01
    12. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      Yeah I'm definitely in two minds, if I stick to my plan of downgrade/upgrade (Holman and Finlayson to Spargo and Simpson) I will still have the same amount of premiums as if I did downgrade and sideways Buddy, double down would hurt too much I think and none of the other bubble boys really grab me.
      • Like Like x 1
    13. choppers
      choppers
      Think I'll bring in McLean and Spargo and move Sicily to defence.
      • Like Like x 1
    14. mobya
      mobya
      You don't sound like you're 100% there 666; better get to 100% by Friday night!
    15. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      No where near at this stage Mobya, 50% at best.
      • Like Like x 1
    16. HOLKY
      HOLKY
      Stephenson to Spargo and now I have upgrade money for next week.
    17. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      I'm taking a gamble and trading out NicNat. Hopefully i get a jump on those who hold him.

      Petracca > Spargo, NicNat > Grundy.
      • Like Like x 4
    18. headmandude
      headmandude
      Has anyone got any thoughts on Jack Redden, especially is light of Shuey's injury? He's gone gangbusters over the last couple of weeks. Has his role changed? I would say he's a speculative add at best but am interest in people's observations or thoughts.
    19. Owen
      Owen
      Yeah I was wondering the same thing, but you've got to remember that Salem is back this week and he's been playing midfield more, plus Viney will be next week maybe. So I'm unsure how much midfield time he will get when they have those two guys back. If you spending that much you probably want a keeper, or at least a D7 that averages 85-90.

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