Upgrade season is well under way so lets jump into it. This week I think we should all be focusing on the usual one up/one down trading strategy but remember to consider your list situation.
Before you begin, a plug for @The_Swert post on fallen premiums. Well researched and worth a read as you consider who you need to bring in this season.
BEST BUY OF THE WEEK
Matt Crouch ADE Mid $533,400 BE 80 Ave 95 Bye 14
Lots of good candidates this week but Crouch is the player in focus this week. We know he can score huge and 2 weeks of positive scoring after his injury indicates he's over any concerns there. As his 51 is cycled out of his price he's never going to be cheaper. Also important to consider is that based on the last two seasons he gets better the longer the season goes on (84.7 and 98.5 pre bye average in '16 and '17 respectively: 100.8 and 125.2 average post byes). That's an amazing difference and even if he doesn't quite match that again it at least shows he's the durable Crouch brother and less likely to break down again. Only thing not to like is his bye. Good to also note that even if he has a big week should still be cheap next round.
James Sicily HAW $498,000 BE 14 Ave 113 Bye 12
Almost the Best Buy, last week's Smokey by KI Guy striked out on his own with a big hitting 145. All his scores bar one have been over 110. He's likely to keep that high fluctuation but he's shaping up as a must have and is a under $500k defender you can swing forward. Bringing him in last week was a stroke of genius, bringing him in this week is likely your last chance at getting him at a reasonable price.
Shannon Hurn WCE $483,000 BE 39 Ave 103 Bye 12
The evergreen defender is still relatively cheap even after another ton. He just keeps delivering and is the main beneficiary of the Eagles start to the season. I'd prefer Yeo (who's playing mostly midfield) but he's $50k more expensive but both are good gets having their bye in Rd 12.
Jimmy Webster STK $464,800 BE 46 Ave 100 Bye 14
Is this real or just fantasy? Caught in a Saints side, who knows what's reality. Benefits from no Roberton and Savage playing a different role but not betting on it being sustainable with better options out there. Super POD pick.
Heath Shaw GWS $439,000 BE 62 Ave 91 Bye 13
Not lighting it up but he's being super consistent and out of those around 90avg I trust him more than most of the rest so if you need a cheap premium Shaw's the guy.
Michael Hibberd ESS $436,900 BE Ave 81 Bye 13
Time to get on board likes it's February 1 in the year 2018 all over again. Scores of 96 and 99 in last two weeks signal a change in form for his patient owners and those on the look out to bring in value down back. All the usual risks but now at a discount, now or next week the time to jump on.
Other Top Premiums (most of these guys are needed so strongly consider)
Jeremy Howe COL $532,600 BE 32 Ave 94 Bye 13
Alex Rance RIC $469,100 BE 89 Ave 92 Bye 14
Elliot Yeo WCE $532,600 BE 96 Ave 101 Bye 12
Rory Laird ADE $569,900 BE 104 Ave 117 Bye 14
Michael Hurley ESS $547,800 BE 109 Ave 104 Bye 13
Kade Simpson CAR $520,400 BE 128 Ave 107 Bye 12
Jackson Macrae WBD Mid $ BE Ave Bye 12
Going gangbusters as the top ranked player in the game and making me look like a fool as he continues to produce scores like his middle name is Dangerwoodlett. He's going to be worth $700k in a few weeks, if you don't have him and want him, get on board while you can and a prioritise this week ahead of Danger (Things you never thought you'd say during preseason for $20, Alex).
Patrick Dangerfield GEE Mid $619,800 BE 149 Ave 112 Bye 14
Speaking of Danger, now is the time to start thinking of bringing him in and those already on the Macrae-train are perfectly situated here to make him their next mid prem upgrade. Can wait a week or two more if needed as he may drop even closer to $600k, which amazing price to get Danger at, but is the time to start putting him in your plans. To think, if he finishes the season with a sub 120 average he's going to be in all our teams at the start of next year too.
Lachie Neale FRE Mid $ BE Ave Bye 14
Don't like Crouch, Macrae is too expensive and you're waiting on Danger? You must have the zeal for Neale! Erm. This guy just keeps finding ways to score and has been as solid a producer over the years as they come. Fyfe will always get the attention so if you're looking for someone to set and forget, it's Neale.
Josh P. Kennedy SYD Mid $473,500 BE -8 Ave 95 Bye 14
Want to ride the rollercoaster? Not convinced myself but with a monster 151 last week and 125 before he actually has a negative breakeven so he's going to jump back up in price and presents value. We've seen what his bottom looks like too so buyer beware.
Tom Mitchell HAW Mid $587,900 BE 80 Ave 126 Bye 12
Third best player in the game. Currently bottomed out $65k cheaper than his starting place. 41% of players don't have him. Wonder if this is the week they are holding out for?
Joel Selwood GEE $554,700 BE 57 Avg 114 Bye 14
Adam Treloar COL $605,900 BE 84 Avg 115 Bye 13
Patrick Cripps CAR $593,900 BE 99 Avg 117 Bye 12
Zac Merrett ESS $503,700 BE 102 Avg 81 Bye 13
Clayton Oliver MEL $559,900 BE 104 113 Avg Bye 13
Nat Fyfe FRE $644,400 BE 109 Avg 123 Bye 14
Stephen Coniglio GWS $524,800 BE 140 Avg 109 Bye 13
Scott Pendlebury COL $550,700 BE 141 Avg 103 Bye 13
Josh Kelly GWS $602,400 BE 142 Avg 105 Bye 13 (inj - 1wk)
Dusty Martin RIC $564,600 BE 145 Avg 114 Bye 14
Max Gawn MEL $645,100 BE 70 Ave 130 Bye 13
Brodie Grundy COL $613,700 BE 122 Ave 124 Bye 13
Lumped together because they're the top two rucks this season so straightforward about who your first priorities here should be if looking for rucks.
Stefan Martin BRI $525,900 BE 92 Ave 104 Bye 13
You want the cheaper option and can't wait for Nic Nat (hold!) to come back so go with the guy with more proven scoring history than Callum Sinclair.
Callum Sinclair SYD $520,000 BE 51 Ave 108 Bye 14
Go with Sinclair then if you want the Rd 14 bye and can't wait for Nic Nat (hold!)
Robbie Gray PTA $574,700 BE 130 Ave 115 Bye 10
Still the top forward so looking like the must have. If you don't have him look to bring him in. Could potentially wait a week if you don't like his matchup against the Crows but he's unlikely to get cheaper here on out and the closer to they China game the more waiting until after bye becomes a factor.
Toby McLean WBD $524,600 BE 40 Ave 111 Bye 12
The other star of the Bulldogs midfield this year who hit his highest score of the season last round. Only 1 score below 90 and with no Liber, Bont carrying a knock, he's not in any danger of competition. Must have who's going to be priced out of getting him soon.
Mitch Robinson BRI $496,500 BE 51 Ave 102 Bye 13
5 tons and no scores lower than 80, sufficed to say Robbo is back baby and shaping up to have his best season since 2015, or ever if he keeps this scoring up so definitely needs to be in the talk to bring into our teams. A rare highlight in a dour Brisbane team.
Jesse Hogan MEL $445,000 BE 86 Ave 99 Bye 13
Shaping up to either be the next Buddy or Kennedy, his scores are boosted by his time running in the midfield but like a lot of KPF, if he's stuck forward having little impact his scores are going to be low. Consider, but still just one I'm watching.
Justin Westhoff PTA $526,300 BE 66 Ave 108 Bye 10
Not as must have as Gray and his scoring is role dependant so may just want to wait until byes but consider strongly as he will always be a POD.
Brett Delidio GWS $473,500 BE 4 Ave 95 Bye 13 (inj - 1wk)
Devon Smith ESS $456,600 BE 59 Ave 93 Bye 13
Travis Boak PTA $477,900 BE 67 Ave 96 Bye 10
Isaac Heeney SYD $547,100 BE 128 Ave 106 Bye 14
David Mundy FRE $496,700 BE 130 Ave 96 Bye 14
Toby Greene GWS $514,600 BE 143 Ave 93 Bye 13 (inj - unknown)
Sam Menegola GEE $528,000 BE 144 Ave 95 Bye 14
Lance Franklin SYD $514,200 BE 145 Ave 103 Bye 14 (info is out 1 more week)
Charlie Spargo MEL F/M $117,300 BE -93 Ave 80
There's two top rookies this week and Spargo looks the best out of him and Ronke. Doesn't have to get a lot of it to score ok, can kick a goal as well which helps. His role in the team should be more secure and with the valuable M/F dpp he's perfect to slot into your mids to open that up if you haven't got someone there already.
Ben Ronke SYD Fwd $123,900 BE -88 Ave 79
A great debut for the rookie has meant his breakeven is super high like Spargo. Job security is a worry with a few big names yet to come back for Sydney but Horse isn't afraid of blooding youngsters. Only available in the forward line so make sure he suits your setup if looking to get him.
Oscar McInerney BRI Ruc $123,900 BE -49 Ave 60
Seems to have replaced Smith as backup to Martin and with his ability to mark and kick goals could stay in the Lions side for a while. Being a mature-ager helps. A good downgrade target for English, likely better than Crossley who should be on the bubble next week.
Kobe Mutch ESS Mid $123,900 BE -48 Ave 59
Outside mid who doesn't have good disposal efficiency when he gets it but isn't the worst selection if needing a mid line rookie. Bombers look like they're rotating the youngsters so I'd be wary and with Daniher out there could be a shuffle of players moved about to cover loss.
Flynn Appleby COL Def $121,900 BE -46 Ave 58
If you need a defensive rookie this week this is your guy, yet another Maggies rebounding defender, but prospects don't look good and his ceiling doesn't seem very high.
James Worpel HAW Mid $117,300 BE -31 Ave 49
Aidyn Johnson PTA Fws $199,700 BE -22 Ave 68
Nicholas Shipley GWS Mid $117,300 BE 18 Ave 24
Jack Petruccelle WCE F/M $117,300 BE 21 Ave 23
Rookie Watch List
Brad Scheer GCS Fwd $159400 69
Brayden Crossley GCS Ruc $117,300 65
Lachlan Keeffe GWS F/D $123,900 51 (Sicily loophole!)
Matthew Eagles BRI Def $123,900 48
Charlie Ballard GCS F/M $117,300 33
Roast of the Week
Jack Billings and Christian Petracca