ORFFW 2019 Round 3

Discussion in 'ORFFW' started by TheTassieHawk, Feb 13, 2019.

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Who will win the top of the table ORFFW Round 3 Mythological Figures Cup clash ?

Poll closed Feb 17, 2019.
  1. Vivonne Bay by 50 plus

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Vivonne Bay by 1-49 points

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Pomona by 1-49 points

    50.0%
  4. Pomona by 50 plus

    50.0%
  1. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Round 3 of ORFFW competition commences on Friday night, with Sunday AFLW teams officially trimmed at 5pm although some teams may be announcing their emergencies early in the day on Friday.

    https://womens.afl/news/16473/teams-pies-giants-axe-three-here-comes-the-top-cat

    The Round 3 ORFFW fixture is posted at http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/2019-orffw-fixture-now-updated.90317/ and http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagues.php?leagueId=21

    Please note that Round 2 ORFFW teams have been rolled over for Round 3 automatically however any late withdrawals from last week’s lineups will have been moved to the emergencies bench.

    Teams can be updated at http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagueTeam.php and can then be viewed at http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagueMatchday.php?leagueId=21&round=3

    In case of late withdrawals it will be assumed that E1 and E2 are named in reverse order (as per Round 1 and 2) on the Matchday screen.

    Onto the Round 3 previews
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    Firstly at the Falcon Dome the undefeated 3rd placed Lake Fanny @Jason hosts the last placed Lake St Clair in the Hydro Tasmania “Bird vs Beast” rivalry match.

    Local bragging rights are indeed important but the Devils will need to crack a win here or their 2019 finals chances will be all but extinguished.
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    At Jetty Road Oval the bandwagon is building to mammoth proportions as the 2nd ranked home side Vivonne Bay @That KI Guy takes on the ladder leaders from Pomona, Queensland @anthak with the winners to claim the Mythological Figures Cup.

    With both teams having beaten Bathurst and Katanning in the opening Rounds a win in this match will help to cement a top 4 spot 3/5ths of the way through the season. With Pomona having won their 2 opening matches by 16 and 17 points respectively the visitors will be in their element if the match is in the balance late on Sunday afternoon.
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    At Prosser Park the hometown Krushers @FreoDockers will be facing a Bathurst side @Len that have dropped their 2 games by a combined 34 points.

    The homeside swarmed forward with good effect in Round 2 but will need to bring a balanced gameplan and avoid mid game injuries to capture the all important 4 points against an opponent who aren’t afraid to pull out WWE style tactics and then some if required to get the “W”.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The remaining match of the round has Manildra Mystix extremely pleased to be back at Flour Girls Arena as they clash with a Tenterfield Termites @stripey outfit that also boasts a 1 win, 1 loss record after the opening fortnight.

    The stakes don’t get much bigger this week as both teams from NSW look to get ahead of the ledger and move a game ahead of 5th spot with 2 rounds to play.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Draftstars links for progress scores through the round
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/COgiF7f
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/C8giHfM
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CgLiG0X
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CDJiHu8
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CVIiHJc

    With the definite exception of Tenterfield good luck all !
     
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  2. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Hi all, I have put together a simple version of the AFL ladder predictor to simulate the possible outcomes for the remainder of the 2019 ORFFW regular season.

    The model assumes that each team has a 50% chance of winning each match (ie there are no draws) and does not determine any total finals probability per team due to the complexity of modelling match scores as required to determine final positions based on the Points Scored tiebreaker.

    Unfortunately the file size of the simulator is too large to be attached below, however if you want a copy to play around with just request it via pm and I will email it to your address.

    The following is the current ORFFW ladder, games remaining and a summary of some probabilities and permutations from the 4096 possible outcomes assuming no draws.

    tsleagues.png
    I am hopeful that this summary provides a little more insight for all of us as we commence ORFFW Round 3.

    Cheers TTH
     
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  3. stripey

    stripey Well-Known Member

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    Dang, quirk of the draw has the Termites play the current top four in its 5 matches... when we play finals, you won’t be able to say we didn’t didn’t deserve it!
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
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  4. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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  5. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Excellent preview TTH!
    We’ve practiced closing tight ones all preseason and we’re not afraid of any team now.... but we’re also trying not to get ahead of ourselves after just 2 rounds o_O all the best to you @That KI Guy :)
     
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  6. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    I am looking forward to our match @stripey but make sure that you have a few spare tyres for the team bus as a few of the more hardcore Manildra fans have been plotting to place road spikes along the New England highway to disrupt the Termites 700km journey south.

    The Mystix are planning to make 2 changes to their Round 2 lineup with Rocky Cranston slotting onto the forward line and most likely having cameos stints onball following a 2 game suspension and Kirsty Lamb earning her first run in the seniors after dominating in the ressies.

    The omissions are Maddy Prespakis (managed) and Jacinda Barclay. Maddy is an emergency alongside veteran Cora Staunton.
     
  7. stripey

    stripey Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @TheTassieHawk

    Lose this fixture and finals I think are nothing but a pipe dream for the Termites.. on paper it looks like it could be close if the Termites continue their improvement.... although most discussion at team selection for the Termites revolved around who was 'less unworthy' of being picked... that said, we have gone with one change being the return of Emma Mackie after a weeks rest with a sore head (not self inflicted according to the medicos ;))

    Will this be the week Alicia Eva repays the faith... a 64 average from our marquee player is not what we need!

    EDIT: I tell a lie actually, the Plane Train is going to make her debut for the Termites, coming in at the expense of Evie Gooch
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  8. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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  9. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Prespakis is an outstanding natural footballer
     
  10. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Probably biased but I reckon if she had close to the tank Morrison has she would already be the Bradman of AFLW. She has topped the Blues AF scores in her first 3 weeks playing a lot of half forward and she looks like a player who would score better in SC due to efficiency and impact.

    Shocked that the Blues smashed the highly fancied Giants though, could make it hard for GWS to finish in a top 2 conference possie unless they win 4 straight.
     
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  11. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Belles are prepariing their anal receptors
    Katanning 6/399
    Belles 6/265
     
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  12. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Ouch ! Not ideal for the Belles that Fremantle won easily while the Giants were given a beatdown.
     
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  13. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Name Team Score
    Madison Prespakis Carlton 92
    Georgia Gee Carlton 72
    Brianna Davey Carlton 71
    Yvonne Bonner GWS Giants 69
    Alyce Parker GWS Giants 69
    Rebecca Beeson GWS Giants 67
    Rebecca Beeson GWS Giants 67
    Christina Bernardi GWS Giants 64
    Tayla Harris Carlton 59
    Katie Loynes Carlton 59
    Jessica Edwards Carlton 58
    Gabriella Pound Carlton 54
    Jayde Van Dyk Carlton 50
    Alison Downie Carlton 49
    Amelia Barden Carlton 46
    Courtney Gum GWS Giants 46
    Kerryn Harrington Carlton 43
    Chloe Dalton Carlton 40
    Erin McKinnon GWS Giants 39
    Alicia Eva GWS Giants 38
    Cora Staunton GWS Giants 38
    Louise Stephenson GWS Giants 38
    Darcy Vescio Carlton 36
    Elle Bennetts GWS Giants 36
    Elle Bennetts GWS Giants 36
    Tait Mackrill GWS Giants 36
    Brooke Walker Carlton 34
    Brooke Walker Carlton 34
    Ellie Brush GWS Giants 33
    Jodie Hicks GWS Giants 31
    Sarah Hosking Carlton 30
    Breann Moody Carlton 28
    Jacinda Barclay GWS Giants 28
    Jessica Dal Pos GWS Giants 24
    Tanya Hetherington GWS Giants 24
    Amanda Farrugia GWS Giants 18
    Pepa Randall GWS Giants 18
    Jess Hosking Carlton 17
    Natalie Plane Carlton 17
    Kirby Bentley Carlton 15
    Nicola Stevens Carlton 13
    Renee Tomkins GWS Giants 11
    Lauren Brazzale Carlton 10
    Lauren Brazzale Carlton 10
    Maddy Collier GWS Giants 10
    Phoebe Monahan GWS Giants 4
     
  14. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Name Team Score
    Kiara Bowers Fremantle 90
    Kara Donnellan Fremantle 80
    Gemma Houghton Fremantle 67
    Sarah D'Arcy Collingwood 66
    Brittany Bonnici Collingwood 58
    Dana Hooker Fremantle 56
    Stephanie Cain Fremantle 55
    Ashlee Atkins Fremantle 51
    Ashlee Atkins Fremantle 51
    Ash Brazill Collingwood 50
    Melissa Caulfield Fremantle 48
    Parris Laurie Fremantle 48
    Parris Laurie Fremantle 48
    Stacey Livingstone Collingwood 47
    Kellie Gibson Fremantle 47
    Eliza Hynes Collingwood 46
    Ebony Antonio Fremantle 46
    Stephanie Chiocci Collingwood 45
    Maddie Shevlin Collingwood 44
    Hayley Miller Fremantle 41
    Katie-Jayne Grieve Fremantle 37
    Sarah Dargan Collingwood 37
    Jordyn Allen Collingwood 37
    Jordyn Allen Collingwood 37
    Tayla Bresland Fremantle 34
    Sophie Alexander Collingwood 32
    Sabreena Duffy Fremantle 32
    Georgia Gourlay Collingwood 30
    Sarah Rowe Collingwood 30
    Philipa Seth Fremantle 30
    Laura Pugh Fremantle 29
    Jaimee Lambert Collingwood 28
    Iilish Ross Collingwood 28
    Angelique Stannett Fremantle 28
    Ruby Schleicher Collingwood 27
    Ruby Schleicher Collingwood 27
    Holly Whitford Collingwood 27
    Mikala Cann Collingwood 26
    Katie Lynch Collingwood 25
    Ashley Sharp Fremantle 23
    Cecilia McIntosh Collingwood 19
    Alex Williams Fremantle 19
    Evangeline Gooch Fremantle 18
    Nicole Hildebrand Collingwood 17
    Nicole Hildebrand Collingwood 17
    Sophie Casey Collingwood 2
     
  15. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    not sure why some players are shown twice, its a csv pull from the draftstars website, but you only get the score once ;)
     
  16. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Dpps would explain the double listing @Len
     
  17. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Yep that makes sense, I deleted the positional designations prior to noticing they had some double ups
     
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  18. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    At 3QT in the Lions vs Demons match unofficial ORFFW progress scores have the Valkeries @That KI Guy vs Nymphs @anthak and Falcons @Jason vs Devils @dmandrews matches going right to the wire with both margins under 20 points with a quarter to play.
     
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  19. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    Think the Falcons have undone themselves in Round 3 at team selection. We had our best ruck score and best defender score not on the field which is likely to be the difference.
     
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  20. stripey

    stripey Well-Known Member

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    Yes, all in all a disappointing round but Jess Foley becoming the first Termite to raise the bat deserves a special mention..

    Well done @TheTassieHawk and the Mystix.
     
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