ORFFW 2019 Round 4

Discussion in 'ORFFW' started by TheTassieHawk, Feb 23, 2019.

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Where will Pomona finish at the completion of the 2019 ORFFW regular season ?

Poll closed Feb 25, 2019.
  1. 5-0 (1st)

    25.0%
  2. 4-1 (1st)

    50.0%
  3. 4-1 (behind one or more 2-1 teams)

    25.0%
  4. 3-2 (makes finals)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. 3-2 (misses finals)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    The penultimate round of ORFFW regular season competition commences on Saturday afternoon, with Sunday AFLW teams officially trimmed at 5pm Friday.

    https://womens.afl/news/16671/teams-pies-swing-the-axe-father-daughter-blue-to-debut

    The Round 4 ORFFW fixture is posted at http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/2019-orffw-fixture-now-updated.90317/ and http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagues.php?leagueId=21

    Please note that Round 3 ORFFW teams have been rolled over for Round 4 automatically however any late withdrawals from last week’s lineups will have been moved to the emergencies bench.

    Teams can be updated at http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagueTeam.php and can then be viewed at http://tooserious.net/forum/tsLeagueMatchday.php?leagueId=21&round=4

    In case of late withdrawals it will be assumed that E1 and E2 are named in reverse order (as per Round 1, 2 and 3) on the Matchday screen.

    Onto the Round 4 previews
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Firstly at Mount Panorama Sporting Complex the hometown Belles @Len will be facing their near neighbours the Mystix in a geographic rivalry match dubbed “The Battle for Orange”. This refers to the fact that the township of Orange NSW is almost exactly halfway between the 2 towns and provides a natural meeting (and occasionally fighting) point for the two sets of players on their Saturday night pub crawls.

    The Belles are yet to open their ORFFW account and will be looking to make a statement in Round 4. Meanwhile the Mystix will be desperate to secure the all important 4 points against their arch-rivals.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    At Sunshine Coast Stadium the top of the ladder and undefeated Nymphs @anthak host a 4th placed Falcons @Jason team that lost it’s rivalry match to the Devils in Round 3 after two wins to open the season.

    A win for the home side will secure a guaranteed finals berth while the Falcons will be keen to bounce back with a vengeance.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    At the Paddock the Termites @stripey will be determined to secure their first home win against a Vivonne Bay @That KI Guy outfit that battled to the final siren before losing a close one to the Nymphs in Round 3.

    The Valkeries centre square contingent will need to step up to combat the expected tap dominance of Jessica Foley and rumours are abound that the Mighty ‘Mites will be unveiling a new defensive gameplan as well as well as all-new defensive personal in this clash.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The remaining match sees Lake St Clair @dmandrews taking on the visiting Katanning @FreoDockers side at the Devils Den.

    After posting the lowest Round 1 score (368) the Krushers have since topped 500 points in the past 2 weeks including a mammoth 570 points in their merciless beatdown of the Belles to now boast the highest scoring side of the season. Lake St Clair will need to commit to the cause and play lockdown defence to wear down and knockoff the redhot Krushers.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Draftstars links for progress scores through the round
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CEkiP4I
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CpDiQyq
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CEciQNO
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CgsiQjS
    https://play.draftstars.com.au/contest/CvViQ2v

    Good luck all.
     
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  2. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Hi all, in last week’s round thread I posted a simulation of the possible outcomes for the remainder of the 2019 ORFFW regular season per a simple version of the AFL ladder predictor that I have developed.

    Attached below is the excel worksheet that can be used to simulate the outcome of the remaining 8 matches by filtering columns F through M to select winners of each match. The percentage calculations in the model assume that each team has a 50% chance of winning each match (ie there are no draws) and does not determine any total finals probability per team due to the complexity of modelling match scores as required to determine final positions based on the Points Scored tiebreaker. I did try modelling outcomes including draws but apart from determining minimum and maximum points calculations the outputs became skewed due to the assumption of 33.3% of matches being drawn (and indeed 8 draws are weighted to be as likely as zero draws). I would have needed more time to rework the calculations to a more realistic scenario such as a 48% chance of a win for both teams and 4% (ie 1 draw per regular season) for the draw in order to apply more appropriate weightings to each combination of results and will be likely to do so if we hold the comp again in 2020.

    The following is the current ORFFW ladder, fixtures remaining and an updated summary of some probabilities and permutations from the 256 possible outcomes assuming no draws.

    tsleagues.png
     

    Attached Files:

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  3. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Cats vs Blues (preliminary scores prior to adjustments later)
    m1.png
     
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  4. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Dogs vs Lions (preliminary scores prior to adjustments later)
    m2.png
     
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  5. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Crows vs Dockers (preliminary scores prior to adjustments later)
    m3.png
     
  6. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    a couple of late changes for today's early game on twitter

    @Len

    @That KI Guy
     
  7. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Hope its a short illness i only have the one ruck now
     
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  8. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    After the Saturday games:

    Nymphs 93/3 vs Falcons 230/4
     
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  9. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    been so involved in the UF draft I haven't seen sore, looks like I dropped Fridge at the wrong time though
     
  10. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    Farrugia scored 54

    One of anthaks' onfield defenders scored 3 but this was matched by one of my forwards who scored 6.
     
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  11. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Magpies vs Giants (preliminary scores prior to adjustments later).
    m4.png
     
  12. Jason

    Jason Moderator Staff Member

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    Before final adjustments, Nymphs 377 v Falcons 407
     
  13. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Demons vs Roos (preliminary scores prior to adjustments later)
    m5.png
     
  14. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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    ok, scores are up - recalc is recalcing.
     
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  15. stripey

    stripey Well-Known Member

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    Ooh I thought the all new improved Termite lineup was a chance... look at us go!
     
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  16. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    On the other hand the new improved Belles are still winless :(
     
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  17. FreoDockers

    FreoDockers Member

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    And the Krushers completely disintegrated on the weekend.... The midfield completely misfired and cost us a finals spot.....
     
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  18. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    For the Mystix ORFFW Round 4 was a strange fixture whereby our 8 players had all played by the end of the Saturday night game and we looked in all sorts of trouble with 451 on the board and the Belles boasting a bevy of stars in the 2 Sunday games and comfortably ahead on projected scoring.

    All is fair in love, war and rivalry matches and being the friendly bunch that we are we invited the Belles to join us on our Saturday night post match pub crawl and a few of their players may have missed @len’s midnight curfew by around 6 or 7 hours. Erin McKinnon won the skolling and karaoke competitions but failed to back up for the following day's game while the Belles remaining Sunday contingent were understandably a little down on their previous form and the Mystix were able to hold on for the inaugural "Battle for Orange" derby victory.

    The traveling Mystix fans were ectstatic with the win that takes their side to the top of the ladder while leaving the arch enemy in stone motherless last position with a round to play.
     
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  19. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    Erin is currently seeking counciling, some of her mates are seeking refuge from the local scorn :p
     
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  20. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Wow, good game. Another close one for Pomona. I think our biggest margin so far has been 33!

    Congrats on the win.
     
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